A-League Soccer – Melbourne City at Newcastle Jets – Showdown DFS

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Welcome all, to the first ever edition of A-League soccer coverage! Never in my wildest dreams did I envision us covering this, but due to the lack of activity in an otherwise bleak and shutdown sports world, we are forced to explore the depths of what other less Coronavirus-infected countries have to offer. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and here at DPA, we are on a quest to provide an edge in DFS in whatever way we can! Now why should you trust us on an otherwise uninformed quest such as Australian League soccer? Well for one, we understand the rules. Soccer rules from league to league are consistent as far as DFS scoring is concerned, and after having played and taken down tournaments in both Women’s World Cup and Copa America, I can say that I have experience and success with this sport. To further earn your confidence, I split 1st place in the biggest Australian League DraftKings tournament just this past Thursday night, dividing the 1st ($10,000) and 2nd ($3,000) place prize with another DK contestant for nearly $7,000 in total winnings – all rosters considered.

Was I surprised when I woke up? Absolutely.

The player pool I had in the CCM vs. MC game was pretty standard, but what set the lineup apart was my choice of Captain, as I had taken an underpriced striker from the heavy underdog as my selection in the above roster, which in turn, freed me to pay up for studs throughout the rest of the lineup. I was repaid with two goals from striker Jordan Murray on my way to the takedown, and that essentially sealed the deal. If you take anything from this, it should be that if you want to go big in the showdown format for a chance at the takedown, you will need to take calculated risks. Getting the best point/$ play as your captain is a decent strategy, and one that we will focus in on today as we have a limited amount of possibilities to sort through. Lastly, if you plan on playing this slate, you will need to make sure you can stay awake or at least set an alarm for the starting lineups to be released (these won’t be available until around 3:30AM on each team’s twitter). If you won’t be awake during this time early Monday morning, I would strongly advise against playing this slate. So without any further ado, let’s breakdown these two teams, and try to get a grip for what Projected XI’s will look like in advance of tonight’s 4:30AM kickoff.

Melbourne City (+130) at Newcastle Jets (+210)

Over / Under: 3 Goals

Melbourne City

2nd in Australian League table, 3W-1D-1L in their last five matches

MC is 2-0 against Newcastle out-scoring them 6-0 in both games played since December 2019.

*Starting XI from 3/20 against Central Coast Mariners

Analysis: Melbourne is a top team in this league, and therefore get the edge in my book as a prime target for offensive firepower in Monday morning’s Showdown. This game boasts a decent total (3 Goals), and I think we can expect Melbourne to win this one handedly, and quite possibly even shut out Newcastle. In their last two meetings against the Jets, City rolled to 4-0 and 2-0 victories, with the Melbourne City keeper notching a very valuable shutout in the process in each game. The MC attack is led by Jamie Maclaren, Adrian Luna, Craig Noone and Markel Susaeta, most of which have been valuable pieces in recent showdown slates, and should be considered here as well. Jamie Maclaren ($7,800) is egregiously priced for his goal scoring touch on a favored squad, and has tickled the twine 4 times in his last two outings while leading the A-league with 18 goals. From a GPP perspective, Maclaren is a piece that I will be building around at a reduced price tag comparatively speaking, as he has played a full 90 minutes in 6 of his last 7 outings. Adrian Luna ($8,600) is overpriced in my opinion, seeing has he has found the scoresheet only once in his last four outings, yet is priced higher than more productive players like Maclaren and Susaeta. Speaking of the latter, Markel Susaeta ($7,000) has emerged as a valuable piece on the right side for the visiting Melbourne City side. Not only can he make an impact on the scoresheet (1G 1A in his last game), but he can accumulate by way of peripheral statistics such as crosses (8 in his last two games), and shots assisted (4 in his last two games). At just $7,000, you could certainly do worse at that price. Last but not least of the Melbourne City attack is none other than Craig Noone ($10,200). While Noone is a hot and likely popular commodity, the value on this slate should allow us to get to him, and there is likely no player with a safer floor available on Monday (sans Newcastle’s Petratos who is right there with him). Noone has scored 18+ DKP in 3 of his last 4 outings, and gets the job done by way of peripherals and scoring chances with frequency. Now that we’ve covered the MC attack, let’s discuss some of the defensive options that can serve as accumulators. On defense, we want to target perimeter defenders that can push the ball forward, and also cross the ball and promote scoring chances. Melbourne City’s Nathaniel Atkinson ($6,000) and Scott Jamieson ($5,000) both constitute that role, and have a greater chance of yielding fantasy goodness than either replacement Melbourne City center back. All things being considered, give me the savings on Jamieson, as he is averaging a full 1.5 DKP per game more than Atkinson at this juncture of the season, despite solid recent play from Atkinson 13 DK PPG over his last two games. Last but not least, City Goalkeeper Tom Glover ($5,800) is worth a shout here, as he shut out this same Newcastle squad 4-0 in the season opener. With that said, he probably doesn’t have the upside to warrant Captain consideration if not multi-entering, so I would probably prefer him in the FLEX spot in most cases.

Make sure to stay tuned to the confirmed XI’s closer to kickoff (about 3:30AM EST on each team’s twitter) to ensure that your players are starting.

Core Plays: Craig Noone, Jamie Maclaren, Markel Susaeta, Scott Jamieson, Tom Glover

GPP Plays: Adrian Luna, Nathaniel Atkinson

Honorable Mention: Florin Berenguer

Newcastle Jets

9th in Australian League table, 2W-2D-1L in last five matches

Newcastle is 0-2 against MC, being out-scored 0-6 in both matches in which these teams have met since December 2019

*Starting XI from 3/20 against Brisbane Roar

Analysis: The odds are saying that this game could be closer than it should appear on paper, so there are some pieces from Newcastle that we should consider. Beginning with the attack, the top player on this Newcastle Jets side is Dimitrios Petratos ($11,000). Petratos possesses an equally consistent floor to that of Craig Noone, and is a virtual lock to accrue double digit fantasy points. The question you’ll need to consider is: will it be in the low 10’s or in the low 20’s, because a mediocre outing could crush your lineup at his massive price tag. With that said, I’m leaning towards having more exposure than less to the Newcastle winger as he has had no less than 9 crosses in 8 of his last 9 games, and seems likely to be the beneficiary of fantasy points if Newcastle can get on the board. Roy O’Donovan ($9,400) serves at the point of attack for this Newcastle side, and while goal dependent, he is probably the most likely Newcastle member to find the back of the net on Monday. I’ll sprinkle him in my tournament exposure knowing full well that he could also bust easily. Matthew Millar ($8,000) plays a bit far back for his price tag, but has also displayed upside with two 20 DKP+ performances in his last 5 starts. He has an outside shot at landing on the winning lineup tonight, and should be treated as such. On the opposite side of Millar is “defender” Bobby Burns ($6,400) who is really a midfielder at a defenders price. Burns has the ability to generate scoring chances, and once crossed the ball 21 times in a game earlier this year against Central Coast Mariners. Burns will be a core piece for me tonight at his price tag. Last but not least (if he starts) is the Panamanian sensation, Abdiel Arroyo ($6,800). I could definitely get behind Arroyo if he gets the nod, as he has the ability to take a lot of shots when given the opportunity.

Make sure to stay tuned to the confirmed XI’s closer to kickoff (about 3:30AM EST on each team’s twitter) to ensure that your players are starting.

Core Plays: Dimitrios Petratos, Bobby Burns

GPP Plays: Roy O’Donovan, Matthew Millar

Honorable Mention: Abdiel Arroyo (if he starts)

Thank you for tuning into DPA Premium’s coverage of Australian League Soccer. For more detailed analysis, please join us on our free 14 day trial of DPA Premium for access to up to the minute information on our slack network. If you haven’t yet done so already, make sure to follow our twitter accounts at @dailyplayaction and @AlexKrallDFS where you can find the most updated player news and analysis on several major sports, and the DPA YouTube Channel for loads of free DFS content!