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MNF Showdown Build – Week 16 – DraftKings and FanDuel NFL

NFL Cash Game Playbook – Week 2 – DFS Football

Annnnnnnd we're back! Alex Krall (@AlexKrallDFS on twitter) here, and I want to personally welcome each and every one of you to the second installment of The NFL Cash Game Playbook of 2020! After a strong season opener in cash games last week where we dominated with a score of 185 DraftKings points, we're back […]

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The Daily Diamond – 9.19 – Premium Cash Core Plays and DFS Analysis – FanDuel and DraftKings MLB

Hey Playmakers!!! Nick Marro here with my Cash Game Core Plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel. In addition to my Core-5, I’ve also provided you some other options to consider, as well as some notes on my thought process in building my lineup. These plays are intended for Cash games, but their overall quality should […]

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The Checkered Flag – FREE Picks – Bass Pro Shops Night Race – NASCAR DFS

Hi guys! Joe Kooinga back again to give you the scoop on this week’s NASCAR race at Bristol Motor Speedway. This race is known for being one of the driver’s favorites on the schedule. Under the lights, sparks flying and the bottom four in points facing elimination from the playoffs! This race has all the makings to be a fan pleaser as the guys battle for a checkered flag at one of NASCAR’s most famous tracks. Let’s take a look at dominators and driver’s with place differential potential that we should target this evening. 


Dominators

Brad Keselowski | 1st |11,200 DK|13,700 FD|

They are using the 750HP package this week, which works in Brad’s favor. He’s won 3 races this year using the same 750HP package, they are also one of the top teams on short tracks, starting from the pole I think Brad leads laps and finishes no worse then 10th place, unless he’s caught up in a wreck. He’s expensive this week, but for good reason. He’s locked into the next round of the playoffs and I’m sure he would love to pick up another win and hog all the playoff points he can for the start of the next round with next week’s race. 


Joey Logano | 2nd |9,700 DK|12,500 FD| 

Joey has led laps at Bristol in 10 out of the last 13 trips here. He’s me of the best at this track. But I do want to throw a little warning out there, he’s had several races where he just didn’t have the car to win down the stretch and would start to fade. I like this play, but I’ll have more exposure to Brad, Chase Elliot, and Kyle Busch. 

Martin Truex Jr | 3rd |10,000 DK|11,600 FD| 

This is a tough play given Truex’s history here. He doesn’t do well here normally. He’s only cracked the Top 10 one time in the last 15 races here. Personally I almost can’t believe the history is this bad for him. Now, he does start 3rd which gives him a shot at an early lead. But if he doesn’t get the lead and history holds true, Truex will not be a good play here. I’d have limited exposure, if any. 

Chase Elliot | 6th |10,700 DK|13,000 FD| 

Chase would have won here earlier this year if not for a late race mistake with 5 laps to go. He came back for the all-star race and dominated here. I really like this play. He’s expensive but he deserves it here. I think he will get the lead at some point, and I think he is a very really possibility of winning this race. Hendricks as a whole is good here as an organization. I think Chase is the best of those 4. 

Kyle Busch | 9th |10,400 DK|12,000 FD| 

Kyle has one hell of a history here. He’s won 3 out of the last 6 races here. And finished Top 5 in two other. He’s also lead 100 laps or more in a race 5 out of the last 10 here. He’s barely hanging on to his playoff life here and really needs a top performance to even be considered a championship contender at this point. He’s down a lot of playoff points to Harvick and Hamlin. There’s still never been that breakout dominant performance from Busch this year. Could we see it this week? I think the chances are better here then most of the remaining races. I want exposure in case it does. 
(Also consider Harvick and Hamlin, but being that both at pretty much locks to make it to the championship 4, as long as they can stay clean and have average races by their standards, I like other plays better) 

Place Differential

Jimmie Johnson | 24th |8,600 DK|9,400 FD| 

I like this play. He’s done pretty well here. You have to go back to 2013 (14 races) to find a race where Jimmie finished worse then 24th place here, where he starts this one. Part of team Hendricks, who does well here, and this being Jimmie’s last race at Bristol, I like the narratives here for a good finish. I know they really want to get a win before his career is through, this might be one of his last really good shots at it. 

Erik Jones | 20th |9,400 DK|9,200 FD|

Great price on FD. Jones has 3 Top 5’s in 6 races here. Including 5th place in May. This is one of his best tracks and he is driving for a job next year. This is basically an audition for someone else’s team for Jones. I really like him starting 20th knowing he has potential to get near +15 place differential. I consider him a top play this week and you need to have exposure in GPP. I think he’s damn good for cash too. I like betting him to finish Top 10 as well at +110 on DK sportsbook. Good shot to double up your money. 

Kurt Busch | 13th |9,100 DK|11,000 FD| 

Kurt is another guy who has done pretty well here in the past. I like his DraftKings price for 9100, I think he can pay it off. He’s finished Top 10 here 5 out of the last 6 races. Including a recent win in 2018. He’s in a good spot to advance to the next round of the playoffs. But needs a good performance here to set himself up well for that next round, where the competition will be even tougher. 

Clint Bowyer | 11th |8,400 DK|10,700 FD| 

I like the DraftKings pricing again here, while he’s probably not the best “place diff” play. He has solid upside and should make for. Really nice cash game play on either site. He has one of the best driver ratings here if anyone in the series. I could see an easy Top 10 finish here 

Matt DiBenedetto | 16th |8,100 DK|9,700 FD|

He performed well here last August, finishing 2nd. Self-admittedly he really likes this track. So I like the play, but it doesn’t come without risk. He finished 31st here right after the return and also has several disappointing finishes here peppered throughout his career stats. 

Chris Bell | 18th |7,100 DK|8,600 FD| 

I think the price leaves a little meat on the bone here for Bell. He was awesome here right after the return, finishing 9th place when he started 35th. That equals a great score. To dig a little deeper, he finished Top 5 here in xfin 3 out of his last 4 races. DiBenedetto had success in this car last year and Bell followed it up with a solid performance earlier this year. So I think it’s safe to say the #95 team has the right game plan here. I think he’s a very solid cash game play and I also don’t mind him for GPP either. More so on DraftKings. But viable across each platform. 

Ryan Newman | 25th |7,300 DK|8,000 FD| 

Newman should finish better then his 25th starting spot. He’s finished 15th or better here his last 6 races at Bristol. If he can do that again, he would be a great cash or GPP play on any site you use. 

Michael McDowell | 26th |5,900 DK|5,000 FD|

I’m not huge on this play. But he’s cheap enough to help you get your builds together and he finished 14th here in May while starting 25th. I don’t expect Top 15 here, but he’s done it before so he’s worth a GPP dart throw. 

Bubba Wallace | 27th |6,800 DK|6,600 FD|

I might be higher on this play then most, but Bubba is auditioning for a new ride the rest of the season. And this is a good spot for him. He was 10th here early this year. And he’s finished 16th or better 3 out of the other 4 races hes ran here. I think he’s going to finish Top 15 here and I think you need to use him. Both sites he’s a great play. 

Ty Dillon | 28th |6,100 DK|4,500 FD|

I think Ty brings some of the same potential that Bubba does. Maybe slightly less. He unfortunately got caught up in a wreck here earlier this year and finished last. But that race aside, he was 20th, 15th, and 21st here 3 races prior. He’s cheap enough at 21st place finish again here would pay off his tag. Especially on FanDuel where his pricing is very soft. 

Corey Lajoie | 30th |5,500 DK|3,500 FD|

Bottom of the barrel here, but he’s finished 25th or better 3 out of 7 trips to Bristol. One of which was last August. However, he’s finished 32nd or worse 3 of the other times. So it’s definitely risky. I’d rather pay up for Ty or JHN. 

John Nemechek | 31st |6,400 DK|5,500 FD|

He surprised everyone with a 13th place finish here earlier this year. That’s impressive enough to have him in the player pool starting this far back. There’s some risk, but his team has shown some good results at this track even prior to JHN’s arrival this year. I think he’s suited well to move up. a GPP play, but not awful for cash either. You’d take a Top 20 for this price and be happy. Especially on FanDuel. 

Top plays

Keselowski, Elliot, Jones, Johnson, Bubba Wallace

Cash game

Kurt Busch, Bell, Bubba, Chase, Ejones, Newman

Remember, NASCAR is a CRAZY DFS sport. Scores and your place in the money can change in a heartbeat. There are so many variables that really no one can predict. Cars can be finicky, and some will crash which can ruin your day. You need your full team to be on its game if you want to cash, and you may need a little luck. This is not a one man sport when you pick a player like other styles of DFS. There’s 30-50 guys behind the scenes who all have a hand in building the car or developing a game plan. Sometimes it only takes one mistake by one of those guys for a driver to have a bad race. That narrative does not apply to other forms of DFS, so be cautious when building your lines, but most of all, have fun!

Thank you for joining us for this week’s edition of The Checkered Flag! Make sure to give us a follow on twitter if you haven’t yet already, and stay tuned for more great content headed your way courtesy of your friends at DPA!

MLB Playbook Pitchers Cheat Sheet – 9.19 – DraftKings and FanDuel – MLB DFS

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THE PREMIUM STACK REPORT – 9.19 – MLB DFS GPP STACKS FOR DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL

Welcome to the Saturday September 19th edition of the Stack Report. We have eleven games on the FanDuel main today and on DraftKings. I’ve done my best to isolate only the best GPP stacks for this MLB DFS Slate on both sites. Let’s jump into the stacks.

Los Angeles Dodgers logo, logotypeLos Angeles Dodgers (7.70 Implied Runs)

vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (COL)

With a 5.42 career xFIP, Chi Chi Gonzalez, is not going to intimidate opponents. This year is right in line with his career numbers with a 5.73 xFIP and 7 BBs in 9 IP. So, load up on Dodgers bats in Colorado tonight. Not to be too repetitive in the endorsement of Mookie Betts, OF, but the man is on fire with 16 HRs, 9 SBs, and a .278 xISO. Last night was a reminder that you can’t sleep on Cody Bellinger, OF, who had a HR to bring his season total to 11. Corey Seager, SS, is having an Alll-Star season with 13 HRs and a .257 xISO. Another power LHB to consider is Max Muncy, 1B, who has 10 HRs and a .258 xISO. Additionally, two cheap LHBs to round a Dodgers stack are Edwin Rios, 3B (5 HRs & .380 xISO) and Gavin Lux, 2B (3 HRs & .182 xISO).

New York Yankees (6.02 Implied Runs)

vs. Chris Mazza (BOS)

Chris Mazza has as far as a middle reliever acting as a starting pitcher performed admirably. His numbers aren’t horrible either with a 4.52 xFIP. But, Mazza is playing the Yankees and he did let up 4 runs to them in 5 IP this year. Even on night’s when the Yankees aren’t hitting 5 HRs they find a way to win. Luke Voit, 1B, has been the Yankees top power bat with 20 HRs and a .252 xISO. Not far behind Voit is DJ LeMahieu, 2B, with 10 HRs and a .199 xISO. Now that the Yankees have Aaron Judge, OF (9 HRs & .265 xISO) there are’nt many gaps in there lineup. Last night, Gary Sanchez, C, (.277 xISO) reminded us of his potency with his 10th HR. Since coming off the IL, Gleyber Torres, SS, (.239 xISO) has been on a tear with 2 HRs in 7 games.

Atlanta Braves A LogoAtlanta Braves (4.93 Implied Runs)

vs. David Peterson (NYM)

David Peterson has been rushed into his MLB debut this season. Peterson has a 5.51 xFIP which against a team locked in like the Braves portends bad things. This has been a renaissance season for Marcell Ozuna, OF, with 15 HRs, 47 RBIs, and an insane .398 xISO. After a slow start Ronald Acuna, OF, has returned to his superman ways with 12 HRs, 6 SBs, and a .250 xISO. Since coming off the IL, Ozzie Albies, 2B (.260 xISO) has been a man on a mission with 3 HRs in 7 games including 2 last night. Although Freddie Freeman, 1B, isn’t as strong of a play against LHPs you can’t ignore his 11 HRs and he has been on fire in Sept. Two cheap additions to strongly consider are Adam Duvall, OF (10 HRs in Sept) and Austin Riley, 3B (.327 xISO).

Honorable Mention

Milwaukee Brewers logo.svgMilwaukee Brewers

Hitters to target: Christian Yelich, Keston Hiura, Jedd Gyorko, Jacob Nottingham, Ryan Braun

St. Louis Cardinals LogoSt. Louis Cardinals

Hitters to target: Paul Goldschmidt, Kolten Wong, Tommy Edman, Brad Miller, Tyler O’Neill

Tampa Bay Rays LogoTampa Bay Rays

Hitters to target: Brandon Lowe, Nate Lowe, Yoshi Tsutsugo, Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot

Erik Zingg is a DailyPlayAction writer. He shares his player research/projections for MLB on DraftKings and Fanduel. Erik plays on both sites himself, and although he expresses his opinion, he may implement other plays and strategies without notice. Follow him on twitter @HeldigKartofl75

UFC Vegas 11: Covington vs Woodley – 9.19.2020 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage UFC Vegas 11: Covington vs Woodley. Tonight, we will get our final card from Las Vegas before the UFC’s return to Fight Island. Our analysis will include a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values advances (such as to half guard, to mount…) and reversals. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. If you are in search of a good website to tail any of our picks, I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses!

Nick: 139-79-2  GB: 128-90-2  Anthony: 127-91-2     

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 11:00 AM EST 9-19-2020

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST

Tyson Nam -205 (DK $8600, FD $17) vs Jerome Rivera +165 (DK $7600, FD $16)

  • Anthony: Our card opens with two flyweights moving up to 135 pounds as Tyson Nam steps into the octagon to face Jerome Rivera. You may remember Nam from a dominant knockout victory over Zarrukh Adashev in June of this year. He has a ton of power and should be able to beat Rivera tonight with his striking. Look for Nam to work the calf kick early and often and land the cleaner strikes of the two. While he could come out and end this in the first round, I think the extra ten pounds put him at a slight disadvantage. Rivera has a much bigger frame and could hold his own at bantamweight, where Nam probably could not. I do think at some point Nam will find the finish here though. Tyson Nam by Round Three KO
  • Nick: Nam is primarily a striker. He has above average power for this division and he does a good job setting up his shots with feints and leg kicks. Rivera is a decent striker in his own right, but he’s also a Brown Belt in BJJ. The clearest path to victory for Rivera here is to try to take this fight to the mat and hunt for that submission. While the path is evident, it feels extremely unlikely as Nam has 100 percent takedown defense in the UFC. Additionally, Nam has never lost a fight at any level via submission. It’s also a big advantage for Nam here that he was training to fight Matt Schnell, an excellent submission artist even more capable on the ground than Rivera. Rivera doesn’t really throw enough volume to compete with Nam on the feet. I see Nam winning the striking exchanges and stuffing Rivera’s takedowns for however long it takes for him to find a knockout. Tyson Nam by Round Two KO
  • GB: Tyson Nam by Round Two KO

Andre Ewell -225 (DK $8800, FD $18) vs Irwin Rivera +175 (DK $7400, FD $14)

  • Anthony: The next fight should be a fun one between Andre Ewell and Irwin Rivera. Both guys enter this fight coming off split decision wins that I think should have gone the opposite way. For Ewell though that win was a worse showing than any of his past three losses. In this fight I expect him to use his seven-inch reach advantage to keep Rivera at range and punish him when he tries to get close. Rivera has good offensive wrestling, but I trust Ewell to stuff a few takedowns and defend well off his back if this does go to the mat. His price is not all that justifiable, but I do trust him to get the victory here. Andre Ewell by Decision
  • Nick: Rivera has been impressive so far in his short UFC stint, but he could have trouble closing the distance on Ewell in this one. Ewell has a massive seven-inch reach advantage over him here, and we saw in Rivera’s fight against Giga Chikadze that he can have trouble getting inside against a rangier striker. At face-offs, Ewell towered over Rivera. I expect this fight to stay on the feet, and Ewell to pick apart Rivera at range. Ewell has effective scrambling and above average takedown defense so he should be able to maintain that reach advantage and keep this fight standing. Rivera has shown a serious chin, but I don’t really see him matching Ewell on volume here. Andre Ewell by Decision
  • GB: Irwin Rivera by Round Two KO

Journey Newson -135 (DK $8400, FD $17) vs Randy Costa +105 (DK $7800, FD $16)

  • Anthony: Our next bout is the third bantamweight fight in a row and features two quiet prospects in Journey Newson and Randy Costa. This should be an exciting fight as both guys love to strike and are accustomed to winning by knockout. If this were to go into deep waters, I would have to favor the volume of Costa, but it will more than likely be over well before that. I expect they stand and trade until the power of Newson drops Costa to the mat. They both hit hard but Newson hits harder and I am willing to trust him even at a size disadvantage. You can play either guy in your DFS lineups and expect a high score if he gets the win. Journey Newson by Round One KO
  • Nick: This should be a fun one for as long as it lasts. We have two powerful strikers here, and both of these guys like to stand and swing. Costa is the more aggressive of the two, but neither of these guys are afraid to stand in the pocket and eat shots just to throw them back. All five of Randy Costa’s wins have come via knockout in the first round. He’s likely to come out firing here against Newson, but he’ll need to be careful as Newson has plenty of power of his own. I was initially on Newson for this one, but in listening to interviews leading up to this fight, I find myself backing Costa. From the sounds of things, Newson has had a fairly-good camp but one compromised due to Covid. He’s not really training with anyone we’ve heard of before. Costa has been sparring with Marlon Moraes at American Top Team. He sounds motivated and ready to make a statement here and I really like the edge he’s likely to see here having been training with one of the top contenders in the division. Another major factor here will be Costa’s reach advantage. In a fight highly likely to stay standing, that should be more than enough to keep Newson at range until he finds that knockout blow. You’re going to want exposure to both of these guys in DFS as they both have knockout upside. However, I find myself siding with the underdog. Randy Costa by Round One KO
  • GB: Randy Costa by Decision

TJ Laramie -325 (DK $9200, FD $19) vs Darrick Minner +250 (DK $7000, FD $13)

  • Anthony: I am very much looking forward to this featherweight bout between TJ Laramie and Darrick Minner. A lot of people are on the young prospect Laramie who makes the walk tonight at just 22 years of age. I think that he is a well-rounded fighter and justifiable favorite here, but these odds are just ridiculous. Minner’s past four losses have been to brutal competition and he poses a serious threat to Laramie here if things go to the mat. The size advantage should help Minner survive striking exchanges and once he gets control of Laramie, I think he wraps up a choke. I would not recommend paying up for Laramie in this fight as even in a victory, he may fall short of value. Darrick Minner by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Laramie is coming off an impressive Contender Series Win over Daniel Swain. He’s a highly regarded prospect with a nice arsenal of Submissions at his disposal, but he’s also shown a solid chin and advanced striking technique as well. As developed as Laramie’s skills already seem to be at a young age, Darrick Minner will have the advantage here when it comes to experience. Minner has more than double the number of professional fights as Laramie which tells me the line is likely a bit too wide here. That being said, I feel like the UFC is trying to boost Laramie in this spot. He is fairly small for this division, but so is Darrick Minner. Almost all of Minner’s wins have come via submission, but so far Laramie has shown excellent scrambling and defensive grappling. Additionally, he’s never been submitted professionally. This is a tough opponent for Minner as many of Laramie’s strengths cancel out his own. I expect Laramie to neutralize Minner’s aggressive grappling and take over late. The longer this fight stays on the feet, the wider the gap I see Laramie wining by. Minner is live for the submission here, but it seems highly unlikely against this type of opponent. TJ Laramie by Decision
  • GB: TJ Laramie by Decision

Jessica-Rose Clark -220 (DK $8900, FD $16) vs Sarah Alpar +175 (DK $7300, FD $12)

  • Anthony: We return to bantamweight this time for a women’s fight between Jessica-Rose Clark and Sarah Alpar. This is a very thin division and I still cannot picture Clark cracking the Top 15. She has put together a weak resume over four UFC fights and I am not expecting to see that she improved much here. I think we see a fight where Alpar puts it all together and beats Clark on the scorecards. She should be able to control the fight on the mat given her dominant wrestling. I also expect her left hand to find its target over and over in striking exchanges. The betting line is way too wide here, so I am taking the underdog. Sarah Alpar by Decision
  • Nick: Alpar is going to want to take this fight to the mat. She has a good single-leg takedown and does a good job maintaining top control if and when she can get the fight to the ground. Jessica-Rose Clark is a strong and fairly-versatile striker. She’s far more experienced than Alpar, and while Alpar likely has the better wrestling, I see Clark her leaning on a strength advantage here to neutralize it. Alpar looked tired and drained at weigh-ins. She made weight, but she looked overweight on the scale and her body language wasn’t that of a hungry up-and-comer. Clark looked about as good as we’ve ever seen her. I think her extensive cage time and strength advantage here will be enough to keep this fight mostly on the feet, where she’ll have a significant advantage over Alpar. Clark should be able to pick Alpar apart on the feet and beat her on volume. Jessica-Rose Clark by Decision
  • GB: Jessica-Rose Clark by Decision

Mayra Bueno Silva -270 (DK $9000, FD $17) vs Mara Romero Borella +210 (DK $7200, FD $11)

  • Anthony: This women’s flyweight bout between Mayra Bueno Silva and Mara Romero Borella is a tough one to call. Bueno Silva is the favorite here for good reason as she should be able to dominate Romero Borella on the mat quite easily. It is a tough price to trust her at though as anything can happen in these lower level women’s bouts. The path to victory is straight forward enough, dominate position and look for a submission. I think Bueno Silva can execute and get a win, but this is a fight I do not have any desire to bet on. Mayra Bueno Silva by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Borella could be fighting for her job here as she’s coming off three straight losses. She is a gritty fighter and more experienced than Silva, but Silva should outclass here wherever this fight goes. Borella has a solid wrestling base and most of her victories have come via submission. However, Silva is likely the stronger of the two fighters and she should be able to lean on her 75 percent takedown defense to mostly keep this fight on the feet. If this fight does go to the mat, Silva is advanced enough grappling that she should be able to stay out of trouble and scramble for an advantageous position. She has several submission victories of her own, including an armbar win over Gillian Robertson. When this fight is standing, Silva throws nearly twice the volume that Borella does. She should be able dominate on the scorecards wherever this fight goes. I’m siding with the favorite. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision
  • GB: Mayra Bueno Silva by Round Two Submission

Mirsad Bektic -350 (DK $9500, FD $22) vs Damon Jackson +265 (DK $6700, FD $9)

  • Anthony: A short notice replacement fights next as Damon Jackson steps in to face Mirsad Bektic at featherweight. The original plan was for Bektic to fight striker Eduardo Garagorri but he now draws a very different opponent in Jackson, who returns to the UFC for the first time since 2016. I do believe that Bektic is the more technical fighter and figure he can get the win by decision here, but I am a bit weary of Jackson’s grappling proficiency. I would not recommend overexposing yourself to Bektic here given his astronomical price and low chance of finishing. Mirsad Bektic by Decision
  • Nick: Bektic was scheduled to fight Eduardo Garagorri, but now he’ll be taking on a short-notice fill-in here in Damon Jackson. He’s being a bit disrespected by the line here as a large underdog, but I have trouble envisioning him scoring a victory against the better all-around fighter in Bektic. Bektic is training out of Tristar, and he’s definitely faced the stiffer competition over the past few years. He has notable wins over Ricardo Lamas and Chas Skelly, two fighters that have been far more successful than Jackson. He sometimes puts himself in bad positions, but as long as he fights smart here he should cruise to an easy victory. I expect him to rush Jackson early and often until he finds that finish. He just needs to make sure he doesn’t gas himself out. Mirsad Bektic by Round Two KO
  • GB: Mirsad Bektic by Decision

Jordan Espinosa -120 (DK $8000, FD $15) vs David Dvorak -110 (DK $8200, FD $17)

  • Anthony: The featured prelim for this evening was a tough one to pick as David Dvorak will step into the octagon and face Jordan Espinosa. This is a very tough test for the prospect Dvorak, but it is hard to bet against his fourteen-fight win streak at these odds. Espinosa has good wrestling but has not really let his hands go much up until his previous fight with Mark De La Rosa. I think Dvorak is a tougher test than any of Espinosa’s recent wins but remains a fighter he very well could beat. I just believe that Dvorak’s pressure will get to Espinosa as this fight wears on and his dominant grappling will earn him a win on the scorecards. David Dvorak by Decision
  • Nick: Espinosa’s greatest strength here is his speed. He showed in his last fight against Mark De Le Rosa that when he decides to throw, he’s capable of putting out enough volume to really damage his opponents. He likes to push a fast pace, but we’ve seen him gas himself out early at times as a result. We saw his opponent Dvorak grind out a decision win in his UFC debut against Bruno Silva. He wasn’t looking good early, but he came out strong in round two and took over from there – landing the better strikes and winning most of the grappling exchanges.  I’m leaning on recency bias a bit here, but I expect Espinosa to come out hot and slowly fade until Dvorak completely takes over. It could look ugly early, but I’m siding with the Czech. David Dvorak by Decision
  • GB: Jordan Espinosa by Round Three KO

Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Kevin Holland -275 (DK $9100, FD $20) vs Darren Stewart +215 (DK $7100, FD $11)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with an excellent middleweight bout between Kevin Holland and Darren Stewart. This is a sleeper for Fight of the Night, and I would not be surprised if these two stole the show. Holland has looked phenomenal in his two bouts this year and seems to have mastered his range. In this fight he has a massive seven-inch reach advantage and I anticipate that he will pick Stewart apart on the feet. His jab can stun people and I could see him really hurting Stewart as damage begins to accumulate. One path to victory for Stewart could be using his strength to change levels, but that poses a huge risk against a guy with jiu jitsu like Holland. Stewart is certainly live in this spot but I am happy to back Holland at a price that I feel is justified. Kevin Holland by Decision
  • Nick: Both of these guys fought back on August 8th and secured impressive victories. Holland won via knockout against Joaquin Buckley, and Stewart via submission against Maki Pitolo. These are two fighters making constant improvements, but they both still have holes in their game. Holland tends to ‘play with his food.’ He seems to let fights go on longer than they need to, passes up on potential finishes and doesn’t always take advantage of glaring strengths over his opponents. Stewart has shown similar vulnerabilities, putting himself in positions to be finished against sometimes inferior opponents. Stewart has a strong guillotine, but if this fight goes to the mat Holland is likely to hold a significant advantage as he’s well-practiced in BJJ. On the feet, Holland should be able to lean on his reach advantage to pick Stewart apart from range. I see Holland having the advantage wherever this one goes, but Stewart has never been KO’d so there’s also a good chance it goes to the judges. Holland could be a strong DFS play just based on volume alone, but he’s priced much more favorably on FanDuel. Kevin Holland by Decision
  • GB: Kevin Holland by Round Two KO

Mackenzie Dern -175 (DK $8700, FD $16) vs Randa Markos +145 (DK $7500, FD $11)

  • Anthony: The last women’s fight this evening is a strawweight bout between Randa Markos and Mackenzie Dern. At the start of the week I though Markos was a good value at her price but the more I look into this fight, the more I lean Dern. Markos’ entire style is based around her excellent wrestling but that is something she won’t be able to rely on against Dern. The grappling is just far superior for Dern and if at any point this fight hits the mat, I expect we see her lock up a quick submission. These ladies both lack skill when it comes to striking so Dern can really focus on what she is best at tonight. When it comes to DFS, any exposure you have to this fight should go her way. Mackenzie Dern by Round One Submission
  • Nick: This line should be a bit closer than it is, but it’s easy to understand why Dern is the favorite here. She has won multiple World Championships in BJJ, she’s a blackbelt under Wellington “Megaton” Dias and in terms of sheer grappling, she’s one of the more decorated fighters in this division. Markos usually likes to rely on her wrestling, but if she goes that route here she’s likely to find herself in trouble. Markos will have the better striking of the two fighters here, but Dern does have enough power that Markos will have to at least respect her on the feet. The one real knock on Dern is that she can’t always find the takedown she needs in order to get to her BJJ game. In this particular fight, I don’t think Markos has enough power to keep Dern from shooting relentlessly. Over 15 minutes, Dern will eventually get this fight to the mat and should be able to quickly find the submission once it’s there. Mackenzie Dern by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Mackenzie Dern by Round One Submission

Johnny Walker -140 (DK $8300, FD $18) vs Ryan Spann +110 (DK $7900, FD $16)

  • Anthony: Next is a light heavyweight bout between Johnny Walker and Ryan Spann that I could not be more excited for. Ryan Spann has been very good in the UFC but left a lot to be desired in his latest win against Sam Alvey. He is a well-rounded fighter and if this were to go to decision, I think he would be the favorite to win. However, he lacks the cardio to usually thrive late in fights. Walker is a very high-volume striker and I think he will be able to break Spann down before very long. As long as he is not too reckless in the first round, I think Walker breaks his losing streak here by knockout. Johnny Walker by Round Two KO
  • Nick: We have a battle of two light-heavyweight “prospects” here. Each of these guys have been touted as the “next big thing” in the division, but neither has really lived up to expectations. Spann is coming off a split decision win over Sam Alvey, a fight in which he was a -365 favorite. He did just enough to win, but never really dominated in a way the oddsmakers expected him too. For the first time in his career, Walker is coming off back-to-back losses. In both of those fights he came out overaggressive and eventually ended up paying for it. Spann is the more well-rounded of the two fighters here, but Walker has more power and is far more likely to throw significant volume. Spann has a really tight guillotine choke, his clearest path to victory is probably going to be to try to take this to the mat and find the position he needs to score that submission. However, I’m not sure he’s crafty or aggressive enough to make that happen against an equally large opponent in Walker. It pains me to back Walker here as I lost money on him his last two fights. Still, Spann just doesn’t put out enough volume to keep Walker off of him. Both of these guys have power, but Walker has more. Both of these guys have crafty striking, but Walker’s seems to do more damage. This is one of my least confident picks on this card but I’m siding with the favorite. Johnny Walker by Round Two KO
  • GB: Johnny Walker by Round One KO

Khamzat Chimaev -450 (DK $9400, FD $21) vs Gerald Meerschaert +325 (DK $6800, FD $8)

  • Anthony: This middleweight bout between Khamzat Chimaev and Gerald Meerschaert has stolen headlines all fight week. The rising star Chimaev makes his third walk to the octagon since July and faces the UFC veteran Meerschaert. The company loves the fight style and personality of Chimaev so much that they already have him booked for a fight after this one. Meerschaert feels as if he is being overlooked and sounds ready to shock the world. However, I do not think he will have much of a chance in this one. His only real shot is a submission but keep in mind that would likely be from bottom position. Chimaev’s style of wrestling guys down and beating them will work on just about anyone outside of the middleweight Top 15. I imagine he gets the job done against Meerschaert either by submission or technical knockout. Khamzat Chimaev by Round One Submission
  • Nick: Khamzat Chimaev is one of the more hyped prospects in the UFC right now. He won his first two UFC fights at two weight-classes in ten days back on Fight Island. In both of those fights, he completely dominated from start to finish. He’s known to lift his opponent off the mat, carry them to his corner and slam them to the ground. Once grounded he starts throwing huge strikes and an boasts an advanced arsenal of submissions. As good as Chimaev has looked, this is a massive step up for him here. Meerschaert has plenty of flaws in his game, but he’s a Black Belt in BJJ and his striking has looked solid in most fights. Meerschaert has more than five times as many professional fights as Chimaev, so we have to proceed with some caution here. I think Chimaev can execute the same ‘scoop-carry-slam’ gameplan he always does, but he’ll have to be more careful and cautious than usual as Meerschaert is fully capable of catching him in something off his back. I could see backing Meerschaert as a dog here just based on his experience, but Chimaev should overpower and overwhelm him wherever this fight goes. Khamzat Chimaev by Round One KO
  • GB: Gerald Meerschaert by Round Two Submission

Niko Price -140 (DK $8500, FD $17) vs Donald Cerrone +110 (DK $7700, FD $15)

  • Anthony: One of the best fights of the summer could very well end up being this welterweight bout between Niko Price and Donald Cowboy Cerrone. These are two fighters that are going to stand and strike until one of them is knocked out. You really have to respect the striking of Cowboy even at this stage of his legendary career. I would like to see Price fighting him at range but giving any space for Cowboy to work could result in eating some very heavy shots. Instead this may end up being more of a phonebooth affair where both guys let their hands go. With all the damage that Cowboy has taken over his career and on account of his recent four fight skid, I am siding with Price here. I think that he gets the job done early but as a fan I really hope we get to see a round three. Niko Price by Round One KO
  • Nick: Both of these guys like to stand and swing, they both have power and they’ve both shown time and time again that they can eat a punch. Cerrone is the better grappler, the better wrestler and the more polished striker. The issue though is that Cerrone has mostly abandoned his skills in favor of putting on a show. My hope here is that coming off four losses he’s going to do what it takes to get back in the win column. In interviews he says he’s going to stand and bang, but I don’t expect him to just rush in on Price like he tried to in some of his recent losses. Price will have the power advantage here, but Cerrone is far more technical in his striking. He has a good chance to win this on the scorecards if it lasts for a full 15 minutes, so really, he just needs to avoid that big shot. My confidence is very low here, but I think Cerrone can either find a window of his own or last until this goes to scorecards. I’ll have exposure to Price’s KO upside in DFS, but I’m siding with the underdog. I think Cerrone wins on volume in what could be the Fight of the Night. Donald Cerrone by Decision
  • GB: Niko Price by Round Two KO

Colby Covington -335 (DK $9300, FD $23) vs Tyron Woodley +255 (DK $6900, FD $17)

  • Anthony: The main event of the evening is the much-anticipated grudge match between former welterweight champion Tyron Woodley and former interim champ Colby Covington. These two guys do not like each other, and you can expect it to be a little chippy inside the octagon. It is unfortunate that this fight did not take place two years ago as Tyron Woodley has looked awful in his past two losses. The southpaw specialist also has his hands full tonight against a fighter in Covington that dominates with his wrestling and constant pressure. He should be able to control Woodley for the majority of this fight and get in plenty of damage on the feet. You always have to worry about the right hand of Woodley, but it is incredibly difficult to imagine him putting Covington to sleep here. I think that we see Covington pour it on Woodley here and eventually finish him, something that we have rarely seen. Colby Covington by Round Five KO
  • Nick: This should be an excellent Main event. From everything we’ve seen, these guys genuinely don’t like each other. Covington has been calling out Woodley for the better part of two years, and while this would have been an even better match-up back then, it’s still one of the better free card Main Events we’ve seen in a while. As Nate Diaz says “real fights are better fights” and that’s exactly what we have here. Woodley is coming off two ugly losses. He wasn’t finished in either, but both Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns dominated him on the scorecards and he never really had any positive moments in either of those match-ups. He still has power, but he hasn’t really been throwing enough volume to land it significantly. He hasn’t been stringing together effective combinations and often it seems he’s been backed-up by his opponents to the point that people are questioning if he should even be fighting anymore. Covington is primarily a wrestler. He’s one of the few guys in this division with better wrestling than Woodley so if this fight does go to the mat he’ll have an advantage there. As we often see when two wrestlers square off, this fight will mostly stay on the feet. Covington fell to Usman in his last fight, but he Won rounds in that fight and some people even feel that he could have Won on the scorecards if he wasn’t KO’d late. This is really Covington’s fight to lose. His striking has been continuously improving and it’s all but guaranteed he’s going to put out more volume than Woodley here. He’s going to push the pace on the feet and force Woodley to fight off his back foot. Woodley has a punchers chance, but I see Covington dictating the pace and out-pressuring him however long this fight goes. Covington’s volume and takedown ability make him an excellent DFS play. Colby Covington by Decision
  • GB: Tyron Woodley by Round Three KO

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice

The Daily Diamond – 9.18 – Premium Cash Core Plays and DFS Analysis – FanDuel and DraftKings MLB

Hey Playmakers!!! Nick Marro here with my Cash Game Core Plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel. In addition to my Core-5, I’ve also provided you some other options to consider, as well as some notes on my thought process in building my lineup. These plays are intended for Cash games, but their overall quality should […]

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MLB Playbook Pitchers Cheat Sheet – 9.18 – DraftKings and FanDuel – MLB DFS

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THE PREMIUM STACK REPORT – 9.18 – MLB DFS GPP STACKS FOR DRAFTKINGS AND FANDUEL

Welcome to the Friday September 18th edition of the Stack Report. We have twelve games on the FanDuel main today and on DraftKings. I’ve done my best to isolate only the best GPP stacks for this MLB DFS Slate on both sites. Let’s jump into the stacks.

New York Yankees (6.32 Implied Runs)

vs. Martin Perez (BOS)

It’s getting a bit ridiculous how good the Yankees have been recently. Tonight’s victim is Martin Perez. Perez has been the best SP on the Red Sox staff but that is not saying much. Coming into tonight’s game, Perez, has a 5.48 xFIP so the Red Sox could be in for a long night. There are two must-plays in any Yankees stack and that is DJ LeMahieu, 2B (10 HRs & .241 xISO) and Luke Voit, 1B (20 HRs & .243 xISO). Another strong play is Giancarlo Stanton who homered last night and has a absurd .391 xISO. Although Aaron Judge, OF, has just come off the IL we can’t forget his 9 HRs and .345 xISO. Some value plays to round out a Yankees stack are Gary Sanchez, C; Gleyber Torres, SS; Clint Frazier, OF.

Los Angeles Dodgers logo, logotypeLos Angeles Dodgers (Implied Runs)

vs. Ryan Castellani (COL)

The perfect storm is brewing and it consists of the powerful Dodgers lineup and a vulnerable young Rockies pitcher.  So far in his rookie season Castellani has had a rough road with a 6.22 xFIP, 9 HRs in 34 IP, 47.5% hard contact rate, and the worst trend is he is a flyball pitcher in Colorado. First and foremost, if you stack Dodgers you need Mookie Betts, OF, who has 15 HRs, 9 SBs, and a .279 xISO. After Betts the next hottest Dodger is Corey Seager, SS, who has 13 HRs and a .255 xISO. Although Cody Bellinger, OF (10 HRs & .299 xISO) and Max Muncy, 1B (10 HRs & .259 xISO) have been cold of late you can’t forget about them especially in Colorado. Additionally, a cheap source of production for the Dodgers can be had with Chris Taylor, 2B; Will Smith, C; Justin Turner, 3B.

Overstock.com: Online Shopping - Bedding, Furniture, Electronics, Jewelry, Clothing & more | Cleveland indians logo, Indians baseball, Cleveland indians baseballCleveland Indians (5.07 Implied Runs)

vs. Michael Fulmer (DET)

Michael Fulmer has had a tough season coming back from TJ surgery. On the season, Fulmer has a brutal 5.64 xFIP and 7 HRs allowed in only 22 IP. The Indians main source of production this season has been Jose Ramirez, 3B. A must for any Indians stack with 13 HRs, 10 SBs, and a .215 xISO. After a slow start to the season, Francisco Lindor, SS, has picked up the pace and has 8 HRs and a .249 xISO. Another source of power from the Indians is Franmil Reyes, OF, who has 8 HRs and a .258 xISO. A couple of cheap sources in the OF are Tyler Naquin and Delino Deshields.

Honorable Mention

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Alternate Logo | Los angeles angels, Anaheim angels baseball, Angels baseballLos Angeles Angels

Hitters to target:  Mike Trout, Jared Walsh, Justin Upton, Anthony Rendon, Max Stassi

Colorado Rockies Circle Logo Vinyl Decal / Sticker 5 sizes!! | Sportz For LessColorado Rockies

Hitters to target: Trevor Story, Kevin Pillar, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon, Josh Fuentes

Tampa Bay Rays LogoTampa Bay Rays

Hitters to target: Brandon Lowe, Nate Lowe, Manuel Margot, Kevin Kiermaier, Yoshi Tsutsug

Erik Zingg is a DailyPlayAction writer. He shares his player research/projections for MLB on DraftKings and Fanduel. Erik plays on both sites himself, and although he expresses his opinion, he may implement other plays and strategies without notice. Follow him on twitter @HeldigKartofl75

The Stack Report – NFL Week 2 – DraftKings & FanDuel

Well guys, it's hump day, and we are officially halfway towards another NFL Sunday! My name is Alex Krall (@AlexKrallDFS) and what you'll find on the The Stack Report for NFL Week 2, is an assessment of some of my top correlated player stacks each week. If you haven't yet started to explore this week's […]

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