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NCAA Basketball – 11.29.2020 – Best Bets for Sunday’s College Hoops (Free)

Hello Daily Play Action! Anthony Marro here happy to share my NCAA Men’s Basketball picks for the college hoops season. Over the past two years I provided readers with over 800 bets and have done exceptionally well to start the season. Betting write-ups will posted exclusively on DPA almost every day, but be sure to follow my Twitter too so you won’t miss a pick on days with abbreviated slates. And if you want to try out a website to bet on my picks, I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses!

  • Overall Record: 451-392-17
  • Season Record: 16-5-1

Richmond vs Kentucky, Over 144.5

  • Both of these teams opened the season by dropping more than 80 points on Morehead State. Now they are facing off against one another in what should be another high scoring affair. Kentucky should get close to 80 points again here, but I also expect Richmond to keep this game tight
  • This is a Richmond team that may make some noise again this season. Last year they finished 24-7 with a very balanced offense and defense. Their offense has improved far more over the course of this offseason and they are now much more reliable at scoring points inside of the paint
  • Kentucky has reloaded once again. Scoring center Olivier Sarr was a huge get for Coach Calipari through transfer, but the remainder of the team is primarily freshman. Brandon Boston and the players around him know how to score, but it will take a handful of games before their defense starts to look good at this level

Arizona State -34.5 vs Houston Baptist

  • This Arizona State team ranks inside the top ten nationwide in terms of offensive efficiency. They are playing Houston Baptist who has been one of the worst defensive teams in the country for the past decade. The Sun Devils are a near lock for 100 points today
  • In their season opener, Houston Baptist lost to TCU by 24 points. Considering the pace at which the Horned Frogs play and their lack of offensive firepower, that was a blowout. When they face Arizona State this afternoon, they will have their hands full at the defensive end
  • The Sun Devils are led by guard Remy Martin who started the season with an excellent performance. However, his last game against Villanova saw him score just five points in 37 minutes. Today feels like one where Martin can showcase that he is one of the best guards in college basketball

North Florida vs Miami, Over 148

  • I like this little in-state rivalry game to close out my betting card. This North Florida team is not very good on the defensive end, already giving up 80 and 86 points in their first two games this season. Jim Larranaga’s team should put up 80, if not 90 points with ease in this one
  • I anticipate this Miami team to be much improved from the squad we saw on the court last season. While the ACC schedule will be tough, these athletes should cruise to victory in their first few games. This is their first game of the year so hopefully the defense takes some time to find its rhythm
  • Miami seniors Kameron McGusty and Chris Lykes should lead the team in scoring. You may notice that Lykes is a very small guard, but he creates space extremely well and can score both inside and outside of the paint. Sam Waardenburg is their best defensive player but he will unfortunately miss the entire season with injury

Let’s win today Playmakers! I am confident in every pick that I provide and play them myself. College basketball is unpredictable and that’s why we love it, so always bet smart!

NFL Cash Game Playbook – Week 12 – DFS Football

Happy Week 12 Playmakers! Alex Krall (@AlexKrallDFS on twitter) here, and I want to personally welcome each and every one of you to the twelveth edition of The NFL Cash Game Playbook of 2020! In today's Cheat Sheet, we have included DraftKings/FanDuel player projections into our cheat sheet as an added bonus. These projections come […]

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NCAA Basketball – 11.28.2020 – Best Bets for Saturday’s College Hoops (Free)

Hello Daily Play Action! Anthony Marro here happy to share my NCAA Men’s Basketball picks for the college hoops season. Over the past two years I provided readers with over 800 bets and have done exceptionally well to start the season. Betting write-ups will posted exclusively on DPA almost every day, but be sure to follow my Twitter too so you won’t miss a pick on days with abbreviated slates. And if you want to try out a website to bet on my picks, I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses!

  • Overall Record: 445-390-17
  • Season Record: 11-3-1

South Carolina State vs Bowling Green, Over 148.5

  • We start the day with a total that just seems too low. Bowling Green should really be able to score on most of their possessions today. Putting up 82 points against a team like Michigan makes me very confident they can break the 90-point threshold against one as bad as South Carolina State
  • The Bulldogs are one of the weakest programs in college basketball. This team is very unbalanced and composed primarily of freshman and sophomores. Of all their weaknesses perhaps their most glaring is defense inside the paint where Bowling Green should thrive today
  • Seniors Justin Turner and Daeqwon Plowden will lead the charge for Bowling Green. The two combined for nearly 40 points in their first contest and could replicate that here if their minutes are not lowered. However, the Falcons have a deep enough bench to cash the over even if their starters are pulled late

Drexel vs Pittsburgh, Over 149

  • Pittsburgh really fell flat in their season opener, losing 80-70 against the Northeast conference’s Saint Francis. This is a game they will certainly need to get up for against a Drexel team playing with nothing to lose. The winner will likely have close to 80 points here cashing a comfortable over bet
  • That loss to Saint Francis had also come on one of the Panther’s worst shooting performances in recent memory. Pittsburgh went an abysmal 6-24 beyond the arc. Au’Diese Toney was the only hot shooter. I expect his teammates start to catch up to him in this one
  • Jeff Capel has not been one to play up tempo basketball since taking over at the helm of Pittsburgh, but the team’s Wednesday performance tells another story. The Panthers held the ball for just 14.3 seconds per offensive possession. At that tempo it is hard to imagine this being a low scoring game

Louisiana State +2.5 at Saint Louis

  • Is this a pick with my heart or my brain? While I take LSU almost every game they play, this is a spot I actually like their chances. Their offense is still one of the best in the entire country and I do not think the Billikens will be able to hang for a full forty minutes with them
  • Cameron Thomas was a consensus five-star recruit and one of the best shooting guards in the 2020 class. On Thursday, he put up 27 points in his collegiate debut. Pairing him with Javonte Smart in the backcourt makes LSU a problem for even the best defensive teams to handle
  • When facing Quadrant I and II teams over the past three seasons, Saint Louis is 11-20 straight up. Meanwhile, Will Wade and the Tigers play in one of the toughest conferences year in and year out. If LSU enters today with an improved defensive game plan, I think they cover and perhaps win outright

Cal State Northridge vs Air Force, Under 144

  • My first under bet of the season comes in a great spot. Cal State Northridge may not win another game all season after their victory over Division III Westmont on Wednesday. Getting outscored in the second half by this liberal arts college tells you all you need to know about this offense
  • This is the first game for Air Force under new, old head coach Joe Scott. He was previously head coach for Air Force from 2000 to 2005. Over the course of his career whether it be at Denver, Princeton or Air Force you will notice he plays one of the slowest tempos in the entire country
  • Not only will the pace of play be slow in this game but the quality should be as well. Neither one of these teams are all that good on either side of the ball so I am expecting a very sloppy game. The winner will likely top 70 points here but not by very much at all

Old Dominion -13 vs William & Mary

  • Old Dominion dropped their season opener to Maryland, but I think you can throw that performance out the window. The Monarchs were not able to play their style of basketball and instead had to chase Maryland from the jump. I can guarantee you they do not go 6-33 from beyond the arc today
  • William and Mary is a very undersized team that struggle to stop anyone on the defensive side of the ball. Their offense will struggle severely against Old Dominion inside the pain and I could see the Tribe being held to under 60 points in a lopsided defeat here
  • Neither of these teams play very high tempo but we should still enough possessions here to cover the spread. Old Dominion can erase more shots than almost any other mid major and I think they comfortably cover this number. Oddsmakers were sleeping when they set this spread

Virginia Tech +9.5 vs Villanova

  • Villanova has won both of their first contests by nine points but face their toughest test yet here in Virginia Tech. You do not get rich betting against Jay Wright and Villanova, but this team has looked vulnerable to start the season and I think this spread is just a bit too wide
  • Virginia Tech plays very good on the defensive side of the ball and I imagine this game stays relatively low scoring. Both take their time on the offensive end and will likely struggle to find open shots today. We mainly just need to fade Collin Gillespie catching fire
  • Cartier Diarra is a transfer from Kansas State that will have an immediate impact on this Hokies squad. Running the point against Villanova is a tough task but I like his willingness to share the basketball and ability to make plays inside the paint. He could be the difference in this game

BYU -17.5 vs Utah Valley

  • I expect BYU cruises to an easy victory in this game. They already have two wins under their belt this season by a 37-point average margin of victory. Playing against a Utah Valley team that has yet to see Division I action this year makes me expect a blowout here
  • Richard Harward at center for BYU will likely limit Utah Valley’s effectiveness in the paint. He platoons with several other talented forwards on this roster who can all play well on both ends of the floor. The team is very experienced and are expected to beat this level of competition
  • BYU does a poor job defending shots beyond the arc but Utah Valley is not a team that beats you by raining down threes. 30 percent is the ceiling for Mark Madsen’s squad when it comes to outside shots and I just do not see enough falling for them in this contest

Let’s win today Playmakers! I am confident in every pick that I provide and play them myself. College basketball is unpredictable and that’s why we love it, so always bet smart!

UFC Vegas 15: Smith vs Clark – 11.28.2020 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 15: Smith vs Clark. A very successful year of UFC fights is coming to an end, but there are still several Vegas events remaining on the 2020 schedule. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values advances (such as to half guard, to mount…) and reversals. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses if you want to tail us and bet on any of these picks!

If you are looking for even more UFC content, be sure to also check out Daily Play Action on YouTube where we have begun streaming breakdowns of many UFC cards.

Nick: 215-114-5    Anthony: 201-128-5    GB: 195-134-5

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 10:00 AM EST 11-28-2020

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Luke Sanders -160 (DK $8400, FD $18) vs Nate Maness +130 (DK $7800, FD $13)

  • Anthony: This card opens with a 140-pound catchweight bout between Nate Maness and Luke Sanders. I am excited for this fight as much as any on the card and think it is going to be one of the most entertaining. Sanders a bit too old for me to back down at this low of a weight class. His record is good, but the wins are not overly impressive to me. He has been inactive for nearly two years and is more than likely going to be hunting for an early knockout here. I like the much bigger Maness in this bout who should benefit much more than his opponent regarding the extra five-pound allowance. I have been impressed by his last two performances and think he does enough on the feet here to beat Sanders. He should be able to win at least two rounds of a decision if he does not finish Sanders before the horn. Nate Maness by Round Three KO
  • Nick: Maness is coming off a nice win over Johnny Munoz Jr. He’s focused on fighting full-time for the first time in his career, as he recently quit his job as a roofer. Sanders hasn’t fought since he beat Renan Barao back in February of 2019. He got clipped early in that one, but he threw effective counters and showed an ability to eat shots and continue to move forward. He ate a huge right against Barao at the end of the first round, but he never really looked too dazed and it wasn’t long after that he was able to find the window for a finish of his own. Maness is coming out of a gym in which he’s the only professional fighter. Sanders trains at an excellent camp in Fight Ready. Sanders is a southpaw, but Maness has shown an ability to switch stances comfortably. I expect Maness to be content to stand and strike with Sanders here. He may be able to pull ahead on volume early, but Sanders should find that knockout. Maness has a strong right hook, but he telegraphs it to his opponents making it easy to duck and defend. Given the long layoff, it’s tough to get overly excited about backing Sanders here. Still, he’s the logical play. Sanders should also be able to control this fight on the mat if he needs to. Luke Sanders by Round Two KO
  • GB: Luke Sanders by Round One KO

Su Mudaerji -350 (DK $9100, FD $21) vs Malcolm Gordon +265 (DK $7100, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Up next is a flyweight bout featuring Malcolm Gordon and Su Mudaerji. This is a striker vs. grappler matchup that is very unlikely to see the judge’s scorecards. I really like Mudaerji in this spot as he moves down a weight class to face what I consider soft competition. I am very down on Gordon after his most recent performance against Amir Albazi. Getting submitted is not a good look for him and a being finished quickly hurts his chances going forward in my opinion. While he seems to be capable of scrambling he really needs to get in dominant positions in order to win fights. Against a guy as skilled as Mudaerji it is very hard to see Gordon coming away with a win this evening. We will likely see Mudaerji stuff takedowns and pick apart Gordon on the feet, resulting in a finish inside of ten minutes. You may want some exposure to Gordon in lineups as he is live for a submission, I just seriously doubt he can lock one up in this one. Su Mudaerji by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Gordon is coming off an ugly loss in his UFC debut against Amir Albazi. He was submitted in that one, which isn’t a good sign considering he’s a BJJ black belt and Albazi is only a purple belt. Su Mudaerji is primarily a striker. He keeps a wide and open stance, and his outstanding speed and footwork make him a tough target for any opponenet on the counter. His power is solid, but his outstanding volume and counterstriking ability are his greatest strengths. By most accounts, this is a classic striker vs. grappler match-up. Mudaerji is much better than Gordon will be on the feet, but Gordon has a significant grappling advantage on the mat. Gordon’s best bet here would be to try to take this fight to the mat, control position and then grind out a Submission, especially considering Mudaerji has been submitted several times before. However, I like that Mudaerji been working on his wrestling and takedown defense for the better part of this camp. He’s been out in Dagestan Russia with some of the better grapplers in the world, making a very conscious effort to address this very apparent hole in his game. The line definitely feels a bit too wide knowing Gordon’s strengths match Mudaerji’s main weakness. Gordon is live for the submission here, and for that reason I’ll have shares in DFS. However, Mudaerji’s advantage on the feet should be too much for Gordon to handle. I expect his height and recent grappling focused training will be enough to keep this on the feet long enough to find the window for the knockout. Su Mudaerji by Round One KO
  • GB: Su Mudaerji by Round Two KO

Gina Mazanay -205 (DK $8600, FD $19) vs Rachael Ostovich +165 (DK $7600, FD $11)

  • Anthony: Rachel Ostovich will face Gina Mazanay at flyweight next in what will likely be a disaster of a fight. As you may or may not know, Ostovich is a very attractive lady, but that does not translate to success in the octagon. There is no way I would consider backing Ostovich after a year layoff and losses to the likes of Paige VanZant and Montana de la Rosa. She has decent grappling but it is hard to imagine her finding success anywhere against Mazanay. The big problem though is Mazanay is never a safe bet to put money on. She has a very mediocre record as well and has lost her fair share of fights she was supposed to win. I would not bet a single dollar on this fight but the pick is Gina Mazanay. She is the far superior mixed martial artist. Gina Mazanay by Decision
  • Nick: Coming off an ugly loss with her career on a downturn, Mazany recently moved to Missouri to begin training at Glory MMA under the tutelage of James Krause. Krause is one of the more highly regarded coaches in the sport, so I fully expect her to look the best she ever has here. Mazany really has no one stand out skill, but she’s fairly well-rounded and should be able to hang regardless of where this fight goes. Rachael Ostovich is primarily a grappler, but it seems like her fighting career may be coming to an end. Ostovich hasn’t fought in over a year after dealing with a USADA suspension for a “tainted supplement”. She insists she’s had a great training camp, but she’s only been working with her own family members so it’s tough to take her word at face value. Ostovich also mentioned that if she loses here, this could be her last fight. Anytime a fighter mentions retirement we have to consider that a major red flag. This is a very low-level match-up and Mazany feels overpriced everywhere. Still, I expect her change in camp and overall focus for the sport to be enough to squeak out a victory. I really don’t like the price on Mazany here as she’s far from high-level herself. Still, she’s going to be the more focused fighter and she appeared to be in excellent shape at weigh-ins. The UFC would probably love for Ostovich to win here as her social media presence makes for easy marketing. However, brawn should beat beauty here once again. Gina Mazanay by Decision
  • GB: Rachael Ostovich by Decision

Martin Day -170 (DK $8800, FD $19) vs Anderson dos Santos +140 (DK $7400, FD $9)

  • Anthony: The preliminary card closes with this bantamweight bout between Anderson dos Santos and Martin Day. There is nothing impressive enough about Day to justify him being a favorite in my opinion. After the left hook knockout loss to Davey Grant it is difficult to gauge what kinds of ceiling Day really has. While he is a high volume striker with some finishes on his record, he has not fought nearly the competition that dos Santos has. I liked dos Santos’ appearance on the scale and believe he will be the stronger of the two men in the octagon for this fight. While Day has the cardio to go three rounds he will likely struggle to keep pace with dos Santos in this bout. A wrestling and grappling heavy approach could provide a lot of benefits to dos Antos in this one. I do not think he has the striking to stand for fifteen with Day but I do believe he can pour the pressure on inside the octagon. Neither of these guys are very high level but I am happy to side with the underdog in this fight. I think he has the weapons and experience to get the job done. Anderson dos Santos by Decision
  • Nick: Both of these guys could be fighting for their jobs here as they’re both coming off back-to-back losses. Day was KO’d late against Davey Grant his last time out, and dos Santos was picked apart against Andre Ewell. Day is primarily a striker. He’s tall and long for this division, so the one true advantage he has against most opponents is his well-developed boxing at range. He does a good job keeping a high pace, he throws solid volume and mixes in kicks effectively to set up his punches. Anderson dos Santos is a BJJ black belt, but most of his time fighting in the UFC has taken place on the feet. He seems to have a really solid chin, and he isn’t afraid to eat shots to throw them. His boxing is far from crisp, but he does put power behind his shots and his willingness to wear damage can allow him to string together decent combinations. If Day can keep this fight on the feet and at a safe distance, he should be able to win on the scorecards. However, I think the power dos Santos has combined with his offensive grappling ability should be enough for him to control where this fight goes until he eventually finds a window for a finish of his own.  It’s also encouraging that dos Santos looked outstanding on the scales at weigh-ins. He looked better prepared for this fight than he did leading up to his matchups with Andre Ewell and Nad Narimani, so I’m comfortable expecting we see an overall better version of him in this spot as well. This is another low-confidence pick, but I prefer the value on the underdog. Day’s striking is good, but his defense is suspect. Additionally, Anderson dos Santos has been in there against far tougher competition. Anderson dos Santos by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Martin Day by Round Two Submission

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Kai Kamaka -315 (DK $9200, FD $21) vs Jonathan Pearce +245 (DK $7000, FD $8)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with a featherweight bout between Kai Kamaka and Jonathan Pearce. I was on Pearce earlier in the week here but realized I’d much rather just fade this fight all together. Kamaka is the better martial artist and should be able to get the job done easily here. However, I very much fear the size and power coming back on the side of Pearce. He is much bigger than Kamaka and moving down from lightweight for this bout. After a year off, I think Pearce could very well be a changed fighter. Training at the MMA Lab absolutely builds a fighter’s skillset and confidence. Using his physical tools well may be just enough to get Pearce the win in this fight. Training his grappling and striking with some of the best in the world should pay off for the young fighter. However, the even younger fighter in Kamaka is on a run of his own. He has been more active in 2020 and now has won six fights in a row. While I think it is a very close fight, Kamaka should have a technical striking advantage large enough to secure a victory. Kai Kamaka by Decision
  • Nick: Pearce will be fighting here for the first time in over a year. He’s coming off an ugly loss to an aging Joe Lauzon, so there’s reason to believe the long lay-off was both necessary and beneficial. He was made quick work in that spot, but he’s still a younger fighter so it’s tough not to expect he used the time off to continue to improve. Kamaka is coming off a solid decision victory over another up-and-comer in Tony Kelley. The fight was awarded Fight of the Night, but as a -225 favorite one could argue Kamaka should have been able to finish Kelley inside-the-distance. While it’s true he’s yet to really flash his ceiling, Kamaka has looked solid since he jumped up to 145 pounds. He’s yet to lose a fight at this weight-class and he’s also undefeated under the UFC banner. He hasn’t really seen much high-level competition yet, but he’s looked great on the feet mixing punches and kicks to create clean and powerful combinations. He’s taking this fight on short notice, so while he is the better fighter here the line might be a bit too wide as there are questions around the quality of his camp. Pearce was awarded his BJJ purple belt back in July. He’s likely going to have an offensive grappling advantage here, but Kamaka has shown a strong grappling base on the regional scene and solid defensive grappling ability at the UFC level. The main reason I like Kamaka is that he has a very high Fight IQ. He’s going to have an advantage when this fight is on the feet, but he does have the ability and wherewithal to pursue a takedown of his own if he needs to pull back on the scorecards. Since we haven’t seen Pearce in a long time, there’s a chance he’s reborn here. Whenever a young guy is away this long there’s always a chance he’s improved dramatically. That being said, I prefer to side with the guy who has been proving it lately. The line is too wide and he’s overpriced, but he’s still my pick. Kai Kamaka by Decision
  • GB: Kai Kamaka by Decision

Ashlee Evans-Smith -150 (DK $8300, FD $14) vs Norma Dumont +120 (DK $7900, FD $16)

  • Anthony: Next on the card is a women’s bantamweight bout between Ashlee Evans-Smith and Norma Dumont. It is important to note the Dumont tipped the scales yesterday at nearly 140 pounds. Coming in that heavy gives her a distinct advantage in a women’s fight, but I still believe Evans-Smith gets the win here. Evans-Smith is the more experienced fighter and far superior striker of the two. Her last fight was nearly two years ago but I do not hold her in lower regard for losing to Andrea Lee. As long as she can stuff the takedowns of Dumont this is her fight to lose, and even if it were to hit the mat Evans-Smith would not be dead too quickly. The extra weight of Dumont could play a factor in wrestling and grappling exchanges, but it also may slow down her striking on the feet. It is hard to be confident in either side here, but I will take the favorite in what should be a one sided decision one way or the other. Ashlee Evans-Smith by Decision
  • Nick: Ashlee Evans-Smith is coming off of a near two-year long layoff. She said she took time to get sober, so there’s a decent chance we see a better version of her here than we did her last time out in a Loss to Andrea Lee. Evans-Smith is a high-volume striker. She has decent grappling ability, but she’s most comfortable on the feet and striking at range. Dumont can look decent on the feet, but she was leveled in her UFC debut against Megan Anderson. It’s tough to really pull anything away from that match, but she seemed to overextend for a punch that ultimate led to her being knocked out cold. Dumont’s clearest path to victory here is likely to shoot on Evans-Smith and try to take this fight to the mat. I expect Evans-Smiths BJJ blue belt and her 72 percent takedown defense to be enough to keep things on the feet. Evans-Smith lands nearly five strikes per minute, and I expect she’ll be able to pick Dumont apart. Since Dumont is such an enigma, I really don’t want too much money on this fight either way. I’m siding with the favorite, but my confidence level is low. I will say Evans-Smith is one of the more appealing options on FanDuel at $14. Proceed with caution though, as even if she wins there’s no guarantee she scores well in this spot. Ashlee Evans-Smith by Decision
  • GB: Norma Dumont by Decision

Spike Carlyle -185 (DK $8900, FD $19) vs Bill Algeo +150 (DK $7300, FD $10)

  • Anthony: Here we have a good featherweight bout between Spike Carlyle and Bill Algeo. I was a bit upset over the last decision Carlyle loss after betting on him but feel like he is fairly safe to go back to here. I like the tools that Carlyle possess for this weight class and the power advantage he has over most opponents. He has good wrestling and grappling so if he needs to rely on that here I trust he will be capable of doing so. The only downside of Carlyle’s game seems to be his cardio, so he will either need to get Algeo out in the first two rounds or Spike has to survive the third. I was impressed by Algeo in his most recent performance against Ricardo Lamas but this still feels like too tall a task for him. While he has the technical striking advantage in this one I am a concerned about him getting clipped and finished by Carlyle. I recommend high exposure to both when building DFS lineups but do think Carlyle gets the win here tonight. I just do not like betting him at this wide of a line. Spike Carlyle by Round Two KO
  • Nick: This should be a fun scrap between two up-and-comers at Featherweight.  Carlyle is coming off a hard-fought loss to Billy Quarantillo and Algeo is coming off a hard-fought lost to Ricardo Lamas. Both fighters will be looking to get in the win column here, but their respective stocks still feel relatively high coming off impressive performances as underdogs. Algeo’s striking looks solid offensively, but he often seems to leave himself open to counter-shots. He has a long frame, but he doesn’t fully utilize his reach advantage as he throws a lot of crosses and looping hooks. He puts together effective combos, but he often leaves his hands down to low against good counterpunchers. Algeo is likely going to have a grappling advantage here, but Carlyle is likely to be significantly stronger than him. I don’t really see Algeo’s wrestling as advanced enough to outweigh Carlyle’s strength advantage. Carlyle’s striking hasn’t looked great, but he’s been training his kickboxing with Giga Chikadze. This is one of the tougher fights on the card to call and my confidence level is fairly low here. Still, I expect Carlyle’s strength to be the deciding factor in this match-up. As long as he doesn’t burn through gas-tank too quickly, I see him overpowering Algeo in striking exchanges. He should be able to keep this fight on the feet for however long he needs to. He’s also strong enough that he can shoot for takedowns of his own. Spike Carlyle by Round Two KO
  • GB: Spike Carlyle by Round Three KO

Josh Parisian -205 (DK $9000, FD $22) vs Parker Porter +165 (DK $7200, FD $8)

  • Anthony: The featured bout takes place at heavyweight between Josh Parisian and Parker Porter. This is a very low-level fight, and it is hard to feel confident in Parisian, even as a moderate favorite. He has passed the eye test in his most recent fights but has been fighting very poor competition. I like the way Parisian sets up his strikes and when he gets on top of opponents, the fight usually ends shortly after. Parker Porter is about as bas as it gets in the UFC heavyweight division, yet he is still live in this bout. Parisian is unlikely to last a full three rounds in this one coming in looking rather heavy. Porter on the other hand seems to look in better shape than his last bout, though that is not saying very much. We will likely see an early knockout in this fight or Parisian taking over after bringing this fight to the ground. I will call a Parisian TKO from mount here in the late first or early second. Both are viable DFS options given their knockout upside, but I will own a lot more Parisian. Josh Parisian by Round One KO
  • Nick: We have a match-up between low-level heavyweights here. Porter has been fighting on the regional scene for years. He was considering retirement before he got the call to fight Chris Daukaus his last time out. A fight he lost embarrassingly, but one he said reinvigorated his love for the sport. Based on interviews leading up to this match-up, it seems like Porter is coming out of the best camp in his career. There’s really nothing that redeeming about him on film, but he does have power in his strikes, and he does have a lot more ring time over the course of his career than Parisian does. Josh Parisian is coming off a first round knockout victory on the Contender Series. He throws a lot of spinning attacks, which is a strange thing to see from a heavyweight. These moves can be effective, but he also compromises his gas tank if he can’t put his opponents out early. Luckily for Parisian, Porter is chinny. Parisian still has a long way to go if he’s going to compete in this division, but he should be able to get by Porter here. It feels like the UFC is hoping to build Parisian up in Main Card fight on this card. Porter has DFS appeal here as his one true path to victory is likely via knockout and I’m not all that impressed with Parisian. Still, I expect the favorite to win in this spot. Let’s hope this ends quick or it could be a sluggish 15-minutes. Josh Parisian by Round One KO
  • GB: Josh Parisian by Round One KO

Miguel Baeza -200 (DK $8700, FD $20) vs Takashi Sato +160 (DK $7500, FD $10)

  • Anthony: Perhaps the best fight on the card is our welterweight co-main event between Takashi Sato and Miguel Baeza. This is a fight that I have gone back and forth on all week. These two fighters are very high-volume strikers. I like what I have seen thus far from the younger Baeza in his two UFC wins. He has the size advantage over Sato and could find success slowing down his pace in this fight, perhaps picking him apart at range. However, Sato is a powerful striker with good footwork and combinations. You also have to give him credit for disposing of Jason Witt in under a minute in June. This is certainly a step up in competition for both fighters, but Sato has just shown me a lot more to like thus far in his career. While I do think Baeza has a bright future in the UFC, this feels like a spot where he is overvalued as a favorite and finds the first loss on his flawless professional record. Due to the striking heavy approach of these two they are both viable on FanDuel and DraftKings. I will probably end up with a higher exposure to Sato but I imagine the winner here finds his way into the optimal lineup. Takashi Sato by Round Two KO
  • Nick: If I had a pick for the Fight of The Night on this card, this would probably be it. These are two up-and-comers at welterweight. These guys are both extremely aggressive strikers and they’ve both shown an ability to still throw hard late in fights. Baeza likes to throw frequent leg-kicks. He uses them to both damage his opponents and keep them at range. He’s already shown that this is a vital part of his game plan against other strikers, but he could have some issues landing them as frequently against a southpaw in Sato. Sato likes to pick his shots so he unlikely to match Baeza in output here. However, he’s likely the more powerful striker of the two. It also seems like he may have a slight defensive advantage here as well as he defends 51 percent of the strikes thrown against him compared to Baeza’s 44 percent. I’ll have shares of Baeza for DFS purposes as it wouldn’t shock me if he got things here. He has shown flashes of excellence and while I’m still not sold on his future, I expect him to continue to improve. That being said, the value is all on Sato in what feels like a coin flip match-up. Sato is a Judo black belt, so while I don’t expect him to be content to play this fight out on the feet – he should be able to keep things there if Baeza tries to drag him to the mat. The main reason I’m backing Sato here, is that he showed us a lot in his loss to Belal Muhammed. I hold Muhammed to a high regard as he recently became ranked within this division. Sato looked good on the feet in that match-up and he did a good job getting back to his feet in grappling exchanges. Additionally, his last Win against Jason Witt is aging well as Witt now has a KO victory under the UFC banner. Both of these guys have promising upside, but Sato is further along in his development. Baeza should look good early, but I expect Sato to catch him eventually. Just make sure you hedge on some Baeza shares if you’re heavy on Sato for DFS purposes. Takashi Sato by Round Two KO
  • GB: Miguel Baeza by Round One KO

Anthony Smith -140 (DK $8500, FD $16) vs Devin Clark +110 (DK $7700, FD $15)

  • Anthony: The main event will be a fight at light heavyweight between Anthony Smith and Devin Clark. This is a short notice main event after Curtis Blaydes was forced to withdraw from his heavyweight bout against Derrick Lewis. Now instead we get these two middling 205ers headlining one of the worst cards of the year and fighting five rounds when they only prepared for three. I faded Smith in his two most recent losses and was preparing to do so again here. This is the perfect bounce back spot for Lionheart though and if he doesn’t win here it may be time to hang them up. Clark’s past six wins have come by decision as he usually tries to wrestle and wear on his opponents for the duration of each fight. I find it hard to believe his cardio will hold up for five rounds against a guy that has done it many times before. Smith is also the much bigger light heavyweight and will more than likely be able to keep things at range for a good portion of this bout. He will likely begin to pick up the pace as the fight wears on and eventually start hurting Clark on the feet. I expect the method of victory in this fight will be accumulation of damage. Once we enter the late rounds, I think either see Clark exhausting Smith or Smith flattening out Clark. Both are viable options when building you lineups and are especially appealing now that this fight is five rounds. Anthony Smith by Round Four Submission
  • Nick: Anthony Smith was a potential title contender before he was decimated by Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakić his last two times out. He was dominated via grappling in both of those bouts, and he’s generally been having issues with bigger and stronger light heavyweights. Luckily for him, Devin Clark is actually one of the smaller guys in this division. Smith was visibly bigger than Clark at weigh-ins. He should be able to use his size and strength to negate the grappling ability of Clark and pick him apart as long as this fight stays on the feet. He’s going to significantly outclass him both in open space and in the clinch, and he has enough offensive grappling ability to use his BJJ to get out of tough positions if Clark is able to ground him. Clark is coming off a nice win over Alonzo Menifield as a +190 underdog. He managed to avoid the early onslaught from Menifield in that one and worked him against the cage for the Decision. He has some power in his strikes, but his hands move slowly so his chance at a KO is generally slim against high-level competition. This fighting being bumped to the main event is likely an edge for Anthony Smith. This will be Smith’s 7th consecutive main event, with 5 of his last 6 matchups (including this one) being scheduled for five rounds. Before his recent losses, Smith was known as a slow starter. He has shown outstanding cardio, and even in his recent losses he has shown serious toughness as even when he’s getting crushed he is difficult or impossible to put away. Clark doesn’t have anywhere near the finishing ability that Teixiera or Rakic did against Smith. He may look good early, but I expect the experience and size of Smith to be enough to get him back in the win column. He should be able to keep this fight in the center of the ring for however long he needs it to. Anthony Smith by Round Three KO
  • GB: Anthony Smith by Decision

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice

NCAA Basketball – 11.27.2020 – Best Bets for Friday’s College Hoops (Free)

Hello Daily Play Action! Anthony Marro here happy to share my NCAA Men’s Basketball picks for the college hoops season. Over the past two years I provided readers with over 800 bets and have done exceptionally well to start the season. Betting write-ups will posted exclusively on DPA almost every day, but be sure to follow my Twitter too so you won’t miss a pick on days with abbreviated slates. And if you want to try out a website to bet on my picks, I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses!

  • Overall Record: 441-389-17
  • Season Record: 7-2-1

Navy vs Maryland, Over 135

  • I was impressed by Navy’s first win of the season against George Washington. While the Colonials may finish in the basement of the Atlantic 10, it was still a good victory for this experienced Navy squad. They have a chance to win the Patriot League and steal an automatic bid come March
  • Similar to Navy is Maryland who won big in their opener against a tough Old Dominion team. Putting up 85 points against that defense is a tall task but Maryland was able to do so thanks to efficient shooting and exception ball movement. I think they get close to 80 again here this afternoon
  • Mark Turgeon had one of the best teams in the country last season ranking inside the Top 25 in terms of both offensive and defensive efficiency. Their biggest loss was center Jalen Smith, picked 10th overall in the NBA Draft. Without his presence in the paint, expect the Terrapins defense to fall back down to earth

Pepperdine vs UCLA, Over 145.5

  • Pepperdine is going to be a tough out for this UCLA team and I would not be surprised if this game was decided in the final minutes. Colbey Ross and Kessler Edwards are very high-level athletes that can score with the best of them. I think you can put the Waves down for at least 70 points today
  • UCLA lost their opener against San Diego State but that game got out of hand very early for the Bruins. They struggled to score inside the paint primarily due to forward Chris Smith’s foul trouble. If they want to hold onto their ranking they’ll need to bounce back here in a big way
  • Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Pepperdine’s win on Wednesday was that it came against UC Irvine. The Anteaters play at one of the slowest tempos in the country, yet Pepperdine was still able to push the pace offensively and score 86 points in 71 possessions

Seton Hall vs Louisville, Over 140.5

  • After hearing the news of Charles Minlend’s injury I was a bit skeptical of what this Louisville team would look like to start the season. They only played lowly Evansville but shot 58.5 percent from the floor in a dominant offensive performance. Chris Mack still has on of the conference’s best squads
  • Seton Hall lost key pieces from last year in guards Myles Powell and Quincy McKnight. However, I am not yet ready to count out a Kevin Willard coached team. Sandro Mamukelashvili returns to dominate the paint and Harvard transfer Bryce Aiken was a stud in the Ivy League, averaging 17 points per game
  • This total just feels way too low. I think that the winner of this game will need close to 80 points. Seton Hall will likely be pushing the tempo in this game and I do not see these kids going down without a fight. Their non-conference schedule is so abbreviated this year that they’ll need every win they can get

North Carolina State -19.5 vs North Florida

  • North Florida is definitely not going places this season. They are a program that occasionally has a squad that can make noise, but this season’s team is easy to bet against. Losing to Eastern Kentucky by double digits is embarrassing enough, but you can’t neglect to mention that game was lined a pickem
  • Meanwhile, the Wolfpack just hung 95 on a Charleston Southern team that is arguably better than North Florida. With how atrocious this Osprey defense is, I would not be surprised to see North Carolina State put up 100 points in this contest. I think they cruise to an easy victory
  • Both of these teams play at an extremely high tempo. In college basketball fast pace almost always lends itself to overs and favorites. The more possessions in a game, the more opportunities North Carolina State has to prove they are the better team and better program

UNC Greensboro -4 vs Little Rock

  • I would give UNC Greensboro a better than 70 percent chance of winning this contest. They have proven to be a legitimate program year after year and return a good squad to the court this season. I love them on defense and expect them to shut down Little Rock today
  • It is hard to justify putting a dime on Little Rock after their first performance of the season. You can argue that it was a tune up game, but 19 turnovers is unacceptable against a team like Prairie View A&M. They likely get held under 70 points here and suffer this first loss of the season
  • Little Rock is led by 5’7 guard Markquis Nowell. He already is off to a rough start this season going 3-17 from the field on Wednesday. Against a team with the size of Greensboro, I seriously doubt today is the day he breaks out of this shooting slump. Fast break opportunities may be all he can cash in on

Let’s win today Playmakers! I am confident in every pick that I provide and play them myself. College basketball is unpredictable and that’s why we love it, so always bet smart!

NCAA Basketball – 11.26.2020 – Best Bets for Thursday’s College Hoops (Free)

Hello Daily Play Action! Anthony Marro here happy to share my NCAA Men’s Basketball picks for the college hoops season. Over the past two years I provided readers with over 800 bets and am feeling more confident than ever heading into this winter. Betting write-ups will posted exclusively on DPA almost every day, but be sure to follow my Twitter too so you won’t miss a pick on days with abbreviated slates. And if you want to try out a website to bet on my picks, I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses!

  • Overall Record: 438-388-17
  • Season Record: 4-1-1

Xavier -10 vs Bradley

  • I could not have been more impressed by the Musketeers yesterday. This teams makes it a priority to get stops at the defensive end, but the big surprise on Wednesday was the efficiency of their offense. I doubt they score 100 points again but 75 should be enough to cover here
  • Bradley pulled off win upset against Toledo yesterday but in a very sloppy performance. They were only able to put up 61 points in that win, yet the current line implies they top that total against a much better Xavier squad. I just do not see them keeping pace in this one
  • The Missouri Valley Conference produces some of the better mid major schools, but this Bradley squad does not look like one with NCAA Tournament aspirations. Ari Boya and Elijah Childs can defend the rim well, but Xavier is a team that just feasts inside the paint

Gonzaga -3.5 vs Kansas

  • Thanksgiving is a basketball holiday and this is the game to watch tomorrow, sorry you Texans and Lions fans. Gonzaga gets to put their number one ranking on the line early against a Kansas team that is just a bit worse off from last season. This one will be close but Gonzaga’s offense should secure it
  • The star of this Gonzaga team is Jalen Suggs. He is a freshman ranked 6th in the ESPN Top 100 and should play an immediate role in Mark Few’s offense. I expect him to shine in his debut against a Kansas defense that does far better defending shots inside the paint versus those outside
  • This team is staked aside from their freshman addition though. Transfer Andrew Nembhard will look to make an immediate impact for his new team today and returning players Corey Kispert and Drew Timme keep this team in the National Championship conversation

Auburn vs Saint Joseph’s, Over 151

  • These are two of the faster paced teams in the country and we should see a lot of points in their matchup today. This total is significantly lower than where I would have set the line making this a very easy over to bet. Not to mention that Saint Joseph’s is far better on offense than defense
  • Similar to the Rhode Island vs. Arizona State game yesterday, we have another battle of guards. Ryan Daly is the stud senior for Saint Joseph’s while highly touted freshman Sharife Cooper takes the floor for the Tigers. I expect both to score early and often in this one
  • Auburn has imposed a postseason ban preventing them from playing in the NCAA Tournament this season. I do not think it will have much affect on their game one motivation, but if anything we likely see them lose a bit more on the defensive end

Howard vs Belmont, Over 150

  • Belmont lost a lot of offensive production between seasons last year, but the squad on the court today will look very similar to that which played in March. They are a fast tempo team that is extremely efficient with the basketball. I see them running up the score here
  • Last season, Howard was the fourth worst team in the country in terms of defensive efficiency. They did a very poor job defending the paint and are projecting to be just as porous this year. It will be a challenge for them to keep Belmont under 85 points today
  • Don’t let his size fool you. 6’11 Freshman Makur Maker is a far bigger threat offensively than defensively for Howard. He can rebound well but did not protect the rim great in high school. Offers from Kentucky and Memphis tell you all you need to know about his shooting proficiency

Let’s win today Playmakers! I am confident in every pick that I provide and play them myself. College basketball is unpredictable and that’s why we love it, so always bet smart!

NCAA Basketball – 11.25.2020 – Best Bets for Wednesday’s College Hoops (Free)

Hello Daily Play Action! Anthony Marro here happy to share my NCAA Men’s Basketball picks for the college hoops season. Over the past two years I provided readers with over 800 bets and am feeling more confident than ever heading into this winter. Betting write-ups will posted exclusively on DPA almost every day, but be sure to follow my Twitter too so you won’t miss a pick on days with abbreviated slates. And if you want to try out a website to bet on my picks, I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses!

  • Overall Record: 434-387-16
  • Season Record: 0-0-0

Oakland vs Xavier, Over 141

  • Oakland just ended a quarantine period and it is hard to imagine them defending Xavier on many possessions today. Seniors Jason Carter and Paul Scruggs should be able to score at ease against this Oakland defense which looks to be one of the worst in the country
  • Zion Young is a key transfer for this Oakland team. He is an added scoring option that will likely slide in with the team’s four returning starters. His biggest contribution will likely be beyond the arc, where Oakland shot it at worse than 30 percent last season
  • While Oakland should get blown out today, they will put up their fair share of points first. In their final eight games last season, they had averaged nearly 75 points per game. A healthy 60 or 65 should be more than enough to hit the over in this one

Michigan -14 vs Bowling Green

  • Michigan is one of the more well-rounded teams in the country. I admit they no longer pose a threat to win it all like last year, but oddsmakers and pollsters alike are not respecting them enough to start the season. They should be ranked higher than 25th and -14 here feels like a steal
  • For the past five years, Bowling Green has ranked in the top 100 in terms of tempo. The favorite becomes a lot easier to back in a game that will see more possessions, as the better team becomes far more likely to win. I doubt the Falcons can stay inside the number today if they are running up and down the court
  • Zavier Simpson is now a Los Angeles Laker, but in his place steps transfer Chaundee Brown who will fill the guard position well. This team has scorers on the court at all times and a defense I expect to stifle opponents, at least until conference play begins

West Virginia -9.5 vs South Dakota State

  • South Dakota State is taking this game on short notice after Northern Iowa was forced to withdraw Sunday. It is being played at the Sanford Pentagon which is just a hour away from campus, but I do not think three days’ notice is enough to prepare for a Big 12 opponent
  • West Virginia should have no problem commanding the paint in this one. Derek Culver and Oscar Tshiebwe are two of the best big men in the conference. They have a significant size advantage, taller than every player on the South Dakota State roster
  • Not only does West Virginia have a huge advantage in the frontcourt, but guard Miles McBride is likely the best player on the floor. He is a constant offensive contributor, but also does a lot for this team defensively. Last season he averaged 3 steals per game

Rhode Island vs Arizona State, Over 150.5

  • Two of the best guards in the country are squaring off for this one. Remy Martin and Fatts Russell could each drop 40 points on any given night. These teams are likely going to push tempo and hoist up a lot of shots from beyond the arc. I expect this total to easily hit in what should be a very competitive game
  • Additionally, this Sun Devils team is stacked with other scorers aside from Remy Martin. Seniors Alonzo Verge and Kimani Lawrence return from last year and the team adds Holland Woods, a transfer from Portland State. Arizona State hit the over in seven of their final eight games last season
  • The spread for this game has floated around eight points but I think Rhode Island gives the Sun Devils a good run for their money. Jalen Carey and Malik Martin transferred into the program to bolster the Rams offense. If all the new pieces can fit together this team may be one to watch in the Atlantic 10

Georgia State vs Georgia Tech, Over 143.5

  • Betting an over like this can be risky given the defensive prowess of Georgia Tech. However, Georgia State will be pushing the tempo here and I think 70 points from the Panthers is more than realistic. That should be more than enough to push this total over
  • Georgia Tech’s Jose Alvarado is the best player on the floor without question, but not far behind is State’s Kane Williams. He is not always going to be the highest scorer on the team but that is due to his unselfishness. Williams is a player who is happy to grab an assist instead of a shot when he sees an open teammate
  • Georgia State is returning most of their role players from last year only losing Damon Wilson to graduation. In five games against Quad I and II opponents last season, the average total was 153 points. Rob Lanier gets his team up and ready for games against their toughest opponents

San Diego State +3 vs UCLA

  • This UCLA team may be a problem. They return five starters from last season and are a serious threat in the Pac-12. However, going on the road to San Diego State will be tough and even if they win, I would not be surprised if this game came down to the very last shot
  • The Aztecs were planning a deep run in the NCAA Tournament prior to last season getting cut short. They lost a lot of talent but have reloaded their roster well. Matt Mitchell will take over as the primary scorer and Nathan Mensah will finally be back in action to anchor the defensive frontcourt
  • The value on this line is what makes it a confident bet for me. It should really be handicapped as a pickem or with the Bruins getting a couple of points. UCLA is a team the public loves to hammer, but as a road favorite this past decade they are 15-24-1 against the spread

Let’s win today Playmakers! I am confident in every pick that I provide and play them myself. College basketball is unpredictable and that’s why we love it, so always bet smart!

NFL Cash Game Playbook – Week 11 – DFS Football

Happy pre-Turkey Day Weekend Playmakers! Alex Krall (@AlexKrallDFS on twitter) here, and I want to personally welcome each and every one of you to the eleventh edition of The NFL Cash Game Playbook of 2020! In today's Cheat Sheet, we have included DraftKings/FanDuel player projections into our cheat sheet as an added bonus. These projections […]

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UFC 255: Figueiredo vs Perez – 11.21.2020 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC 255: Figueiredo vs Perez. This should be a fun slate of fights culminating with two flyweight title bouts on pay per view. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values advances (such as to half guard, to mount…) and reversals. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses if you want to tail us and bet on any of these picks!

If you are looking for even more UFC content, be sure to also check out Daily Play Action on YouTube where we have begun streaming breakdowns of each card.

Nick: 208-109-5   Anthony: 196-121-5   GB: 187-130-5

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 10:15 AM EST 11-21-2020

Early Prelims- Starts 6:30pm EST

Louis Cosce -500 (DK $9300, FD $22) vs Sasha Palatnikov +350 (DK $6900, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Our card opens with a welterweight bout between Louis Cosce and Sasha Palatnikov. This is the UFC debut for both fighters and I anticipate an action-packed fight to kick off the evening. Cosce started his career going 7-0 with every win coming by first round finish. The level of competition that Cosce has faced makes him a little difficult to trust but against a fighter like Palatnikov I am expecting more of the same. He will likely come out with very high volume and a goal of putting Palatnikov away early. The fighter representing Hong Kong has effective overall striking and an above average ground game, it is just a question of whether he can survive in this one. If we were to see a third round in this fight Cosce could get gassed and put away after chasing finishes early. However, the far more likely outcome is Cosce connecting and getting the knockout win. He is a target for me on both DraftKings and FanDuel as he would score extremely well with a victory. Louis Cosce by Round One KO
  • Nick: Coming off an impressive Contender Series win over Victor Reyna. He is making his UFC debut here. Cosce is primarily a kickboxer. He uses kicks well to set up his punches which are very powerful and a lot crisper than we’d generally see from a guy at his level of experience. From what we’ve seen from him so far, he’s explosive and athletic. However, all of his fights have all ended early so there are still questions around the quality of his conditioning. The line might be a bit too wide here, as he hasn’t really faced a high level of competition. However, his opponent Sasha Palatnikov really hasn’t either. Palatnikov is fighting out of an excellent camp in Syndicate MMA, but he’s only been there briefly. He has decent footwork and pushes a good pace, but he seems very willing to get into striking exchanges and he seems very hittable when you watch him on film. It’s note-worthy that Palatnikov is the first Hong Kong born fighter in the UFC. It’s a nice story, but Cosce seems to have the much higher ceiling as a prospect. He could win this on the feet or lean on his wrestling and ground-and-pound. The price is a bit too juiced to go too heavy on Cosce, but he’s definitely the pick in this one. Louis Cosce by Round One KO
  • GB: Louis Cosce by Round Two KO

Kyle Daukaus -325 (DK $8800, FD $20) vs Dustin Stoltzfus +250 (DK $7400, FD $10)

  • Anthony: Next up is a middleweight bout between Kyle Daukaus and Dustin Stoltzfus. The Daukaus brothers have done nothing but impress thus far in the UFC and clearly Kyle poses an issue for a lot of fighters in the division. The best aspect of his game clearly comes on the mat where he has tallied eight wins by submission in just ten professional fights. Notching another one tonight would be telling because Stoltzfus has above average grappling as well. It will be interesting to see how much of this fight takes place on the feet given their grappling acumen. Daukaus has improved his striking a lot and likely has the advantage against Stoltzfus, especially as this fight wears on. Neither has been finished in their career so the safe bet is that we will see the judges’ scorecards. Daukaus will be able to control where this fight goes, grind Stoltzfus against the cage and likely get in a few submission attempts. I am picking him confidently here. Kyle Daukaus by Decision
  • Nick: We have a battle with two of Pennsylvania’s top prospects here. Daukaus had an impressive debut in his last fight against Brendon Allen. He lost via decision, but it was an extremely close match-up in which Daukaus showed an outstanding ground game and more impressive striking ability than anyone really expected to see. He showed improved head movement and a solid jab in that fight. While he took a lot of damage, he showed an outstanding chin and if he continues to improve his striking, he could be a serious problem in this division. Stoltzfus hasn’t seen the same level of competition that Daukaus has, but he does look well-rounded when you watch him. He has a somewhat surprisingly effective kicking game which he uses to keep his opponents at range. As good as his kicking can look, Stoltzfus is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and while his BJJ is still very much developing, he’s already shown an ability to find creative submissions with wins via both kneebar and twister. As impressive as this may seem, he’s been dominating on the ground against far inferior grapplers. Daukaus is a black belt in BJJ and a serious step up in terms of opponent for Stotzfus here. No matter where this fight goes, Daukaus should be better. Stotzfus’ one edge may be the power in his strikes, but I don’t see him finding a window for it. I’m not crazy about this fight for DFS as neither of these guys has been finished. If this fight were to finish, I’d expect it’s Daukaus by submission. This fight should look be closer than the line suggests, but I’m siding with the favorite here. Kyle Daukaus by Round Three Submission
  • GB: Kyle Daukaus by Decision

Alan Jouban -155 (DK $8300, FD $16) vs Jared Gooden +125 (DK $7900, FD $15)

  • Anthony: This welterweight bout between Alan Jouban and Jared Gooden feels like the most difficult to predict on the card. Neither one of these fighters have the highest ceilings but Jouban is the younger prospect with far more room to grow. He is well rounded but does not bring anything particularly impressive into the cage. He throws a lot of volume in combinations and can really pour it on opponents fighting in the clinch or further at range. However, Gooden often makes sacrifices defensively when searching for the finish. I think a guy with the power of Jouban can really make Gooden pay in this fight for as long as things stay on the feet. If it were to go fifteen minutes I think Jouban gets the victory, but I think it is more likely we see a win inside the distance here. It is hard to be overly confident in either side of this one. Alan Jouban by Round Two KO
  • Nick: This welterweight match-up is one of the tougher fights on the card to predict. Jouban is past his prime, but he’s still a well-rounded fighter with solid striking both in the clinch and in open space. He’s a muy thai style fighter who is fairly well rounded and generally does a good job staying out of his opponents’ striking range. Gooden has shown knockout power, but he’s relatively untested against this level of competition. He’ll be making his UFC debut here after running through two low level opponents. He looks good when you watch him on film, but he’s not as dominant as you’d hope he’d be against these lower-level fighters. Jouban is 12 years older than Gooden, but he only has two more professional fights. There’s buzz around about Jouban’s chin being in question here, but Gooden is similarly weathered in terms of cage time. Jouban has faced a higher level of competition, but it’s notable Gooden is the far more active of the two with Jouban is coming off a near two-year layoff. Jouban has lost a lot of speed over the past few years, but he still has outstanding footwork and most of the strikes he throws are meaningful. In a fight that I expect to take place on the feet, I see Jouban avoiding Gooden’s power and picking him apart at range. He has lost three of his last five fights, but Gooden represents a considerable drop in competition for him in this spot. Gooden has enough power to be considered a live underdog, but I’m siding with the more experienced Jouban here. Alan Jouban by Decision
  • GB: Alan Jouban by Round Two KO

Preliminary Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Daniel Rodriguez -340 (DK $9100, FD $20) vs Nicolas Dalby +260 (DK $7100, FD $9)

  • Anthony: The preliminary card begins on ESPN2 with a great fight between Daniel Rodrigue and Nicholas Dalby. This year has been extremely good to Rodriguez who has been victorious in his first three UFC bouts. I was particularly impressed in his last performance this August against Dwight Grant. After getting clipped early, Rodriguez was able to recover and get a knockout of his own in the very first round. He has phenomenal boxing and should have a significant advantage on the feet in this fight. Dalby is coming off a tough loss to Jesse Ronson that had me extremely down on him, but just this week news came out that Ronson tested positive for steroids after that bout. I still think Rodriguez is the superior athlete and fighter but would not be surprised if Dalby really turns this into a scrap. However, I think the striking of Rodriguez adds up and eventually he finds the opening to finish Dalby. Daniel Rodriguez by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Dalby has never been KO’d, but he does get hit hard in many of his fights. Ronson dropped him in his last fight before he was choked out, so there are certainly questions around his chin in this spot as he’s definitely in the latter part of his career. Rodriguez has very sharp boxing, which isn’t surprising is currently coached by Joe Schilling. Dalby is 2-4-1 against southpaws and Rodriguez should have enough of a striking advantage to get things done in this spot. He has shown outstanding boxing at the UFC level and he holds a BJJ brown belt from 10th Planet Jiu Jitsu. Dalby has faced the tougher competition and is certainly more proven, but I’m siding with the favorite here regardless. Rodriguez has more power and the crisper boxing, and I expect his BJJ is effective enough that he should be able to get back to his feet in Dalby manages to ground him. Rodriguez has shown upside, but he’s likely too heavily favored here against the veteran Dalby. It wouldn’t shock me if he pulled out a decision, but I think it’s more likely Rodriguez extends his winning streak. Daniel Rodriguez by Round Two KO
  • GB: Daniel Rodriguez by Round Two Submission

Antonina Shevchenko -160 (DK $8400, FD $16) vs Ariane Lipski +130 (DK $7800, FD $12)

  • Anthony: This is the first of many flyweight bouts in a night full of them as Ariane Lipski will step into the cage to face Antonina Shevchenko. The primary matchup here is a striker versus a grappler but this fight is a difficult one to predict. Shevchenko is obviously sister of the champion but lacks the dominance and power that Valentina has shown. She has good kickboxing and throws higher volume than the champ, but with a lot less power. In this fight she should be able to out strike Lipski on the feet, but the fight will more than likely be decided in grappling exchanges. If Lipski is able to bring Shevchenko onto the mat, I believe her top pressure will be enough to win this fight. She has excellent ground and pound as well as submissions that will pose a major problem for Shevchenko who seems to struggle off her back. This is a very close fight, but I lean slightly to the side of the underdog. Ariane Lipski by Decision
  • Nick: Lipski has solid BJJ, but she doesn’t really have the takedown entries to get the fight to the ground. She’s coming off a nice submission victory over a decent opponent in Luana Carolina, but Schevchenko is a considerable step up for her here. If this fight stays on the feet, Shevchenko definitely has the advantage. Fighting out of Tiger Muy Thai, she has outstanding striking ability. She’s nowhere near her sisters’ level, but she’s going to have a technical advantage on the feet in this match-up. Lipski absorbs nearly twice as many strikes as she lands per minute. Her best bet in this one will be to try to get the fight to the mat. Schevchenko’s grappling hasn’t looked great, so there’s an off chance the underdog pulls off a submission here. That being said, Shevchenko has faced Top 10 flyweights in two of her last three fights. This is a serious step down for her in terms of competition and while Lipski still does have some upside, she hasn’t improved enough for me to back her in this spot. There are worse underdog shots to take on the card, but Shevchenko should get the win pretty easily. Antonina Shevchenko by Decision
  • GB: Ariane Lipski by Round Three Submission

Joaquin Buckley -260 (DK $8900, FD $19) vs Jordan Wright +200 (DK $7300, FD $10)

  • Anthony: Don’t blink for this middleweight fight between Joaquin Buckley and Jordan Wright. Of course, you likely have seen the viral knockout by Buckley in his win against Impa Kasanganay. That knockout is likely the reason for this wide betting line, even though Jordan Wright is an extremely live opponent. He has great power, a wide arsenal of strikes, sneaky takedowns and a very active ground game. Both of these fighters like to fight aggressively so this fight more than likely ends in the first or second round. Buckley has really looked good in both UFC appearances but in my eyes this is the perfect spot to fade him. Wright is much bigger and could win this fight in a lot of different ways. The safest path to victory may be taking Buckley to the mat, but I trust Wright’s striking too and expect him to get the victory tonight one way or another. Jordan Wright by Round One KO
  • Nick: Buckley is coming off one of the greatest knockouts in UFC history. He landed an impressive spinning wheel kick against and up-and-comer in Impa Kasanagay and all signs indicate the UFC is going to back him as a marketing opportunity moving forward. Wright’s combined opponent’s records are 41-55. He really hasn’t faced much high-level competition and while he may upside in terms of career trajectory, he really hasn’t seen any adversity. He does have knockout power, but he’s very hittable. Against a far more technical striker in Buckley, I just don’t see him having any success. He was completely shut down against Anthony ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez on the Contender Series, so there are questions about his chin as well. I really like how good Buckley looked against Kevin Holland on short notice. He’s on a full camp here against a far worse opponent. I expect him to close down the distance early here and gets things done as a favorite. He looked outstanding against Impa Kasaganay for the extent of their match-up, not just his highlight reel KO. He’s knockout upside makes him one of my preferred GPP plays for DFS. Joaquin Buckley by Round One KO
  • GB: Joaquin Buckley by Round Two KO

Brandon Moreno -180 (DK $8600, FD $18) vs Brandon Royval +150 (DK $7600, FD $14)

  • Anthony: On a night full of flyweight bouts this one may end up being the best as Brandon Royval takes on Brandon Moreno. You can always expect an exciting fight when one of these guys steps into the octagon. Royval notched his fourth consecutive win in September when he put on a great performance against Kai Kara-France. At this weight class are not many that can handle the size of Royval. His striking can punish opponents and on the mat he is as dangerous a grappler as there is. Moreno on the other side has also gone undefeated thus far in the UFC. He can do a lot of things well, but I find it hard to imagine him winning by finish in this one. We will likely see a balanced fight here where neither guy holds dominant position for very long. I like the upside betting on Royval here as will likely be the more aggressive fighter. I know I can trust Royval to fight for my money and if either one is going to win inside of the distance I think it has to be him. Brandon Royval by Round Three Submission
  • Nick: This is an outstanding match-up between two top contenders at flyweight. Royval is extremely aggressive. He’s coming off an impressive upset victory over Kai Kara-France, and his length, pressure and creative BJJ make him a serious contender in this division.  Moreno is the more experienced of the two fighters here, he’s extremely well-rounded with an outstanding gas tank. He won’t quite match Royval in terms of pace and pressure, but he’s going to pack more power in his punches, and he’s also the more technical striker of the two with lower and stronger grappling base. While Moreno will likely have the better technical boxing here, Royval has a serious chin on him. He throws a ton of volume, and he’s so aggressive that it makes it tough for opponents to get into a rhythm. He has outstanding cardio and pushes a ridiculous pace. I really like that Royval is fighting out of and excellent camp in Factory X. He’s going to come in with an outstanding game-plan and I expect him to find ways to avoid Moreno’s strengths and expose his weaknesses. I also like that Royval is really tall and long for this division. Moreno could score takedowns if he wants them, and he’s also the more technical striker by a decent margin. Still, I’m siding with the underdog. I just can’t bet against Royval’s hyper-aggressive style. In a lot of ways, it’s similar to that of flyweight champion and card headliner Deiveson Figueredo. Brandon Royval by Decision
  • GB: Brandon Moreno by Decision

Main Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Paul Craig -175 (DK $8500, FD $18) vs Mauricio Rua +145 (DK $7700, FD $13)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with a rematch at light heavyweight between Paul Craig and Mauricio Shogun Rua. This fight comes a year after their first clash which was ruled a split draw. In that fight, Craig had Shogun hurt in the first round but gassed himself out in search of that finish. He is a guy that usually fishes for triangle chokes off of his back but clearly he is sharper than Shogun on the feet at this point in his legendary career. Craig is not often the better striker of the two in the cage, but I expect he tries to keep the fight standing in this spot. While I think Craig may be successful putting Shogun away early in this fight, it also may end up being another low volume decision. This could be the last time we see Shogun in the octagon and after his last fight there is no way I can back him here. I like Craig a lot in this one. Paul Craig by Decision
  • Nick: This fight is a rematch between two veterans at light heavyweight after Craig and Rua fought to a Draw back in 2019. Craig started out strong in that one, but he spent too much time in his guard and his poor conditioning allowed Rua to get back into the fight. Rua has wins over several legends such as Alistair Overeem, Antonio Noguiera, Rampage Jackson, Lyoto Machida. As we see with all fighters though, time is undefeated. I feel that Paul Craig has improved over the course of the past year and Rua has regressed. He didn’t look as on good on the scales as he did against Noguiera and that fight took place only four months ago. It pains me to write, but Rua is truly a shell of his former self. He still has decent power in the clinch, but his gas tank is continuously shrinking and he looks more hittable than ever. Craig has the more advanced grappling at this point in their careers’, the more powerful striking as well as the more aggressive overall attack. Rua won his last fight against Noguiera, but he really didn’t look good. In interviews, Craig said he’s been having better camps than he was before the pandemic. He’s enjoying the individual attention it affords him and he feels he’s been developing a lot since the last time these guys squared off. Rua is a Hall-of-Famer and deserves to be respected as such. However, I expect Craig can get the better of him in this spot. Paul Craig by Round One KO
  • GB: Paul Craig by Round Two Submission

Cynthia Calvillo -270 (DK $8700, FD $19) vs Katlyn Chookagian +210 (DK $7500, FD $11)

  • Anthony: Next up is another women’s flyweight bout between Cynthia Calvillo and Katlyn Chookagian. It is a little surprising to see Chookagian jumping back into the octagon so fast after her loss by body shot against Andrade a month ago. Facing Calvillo likely won’t hurt as much but she does pose a major challenge in this division. Wrestling and top control is how Calvillo thrives and she will likely be shooting early and often in this one. Chookagian displayed good grappling against Antonina Shevchenko in her last win but it is hard to imagine she replicates that against somebody as proficient on the mat as Calvillo. If Chookagian has any chance in this fight she will need to keep things standing for as long as she can. The odds have gotten a little wide for this one, but I still am comfortable betting on Calvillo in this spot. Cynthia Calvillo by Decision
  • Nick: Calvillo could be fighting for a title shot here. She’s coming off an impressive victory against Jessica Eye and she seems to finally be in the proper weight class now fighting as a flyweight. She spoke frequently in interviews leading up to this fight about how much more comfortable she feels at this weight. Her gas tank has vastly improved and she’s more explosive as she no longer has problems cutting weight. Chookagian is well-rounded with formidable grappling and a solid point-striking style. She doesn’t cause a ton of damage, but she fights smart – peppering opponents and letting the fight come to her. Chookagian was knocked out via body-shot just over a month ago against Jessica Andrade, but this has to be considered a more favorable match-up for her here. I’m not liking the fact that she’s back fighting so quickly, but she looked fine on the scales and in interviews. This is a much closer fight than the line here indicates, but I’m siding with the favorite in Calvillo. Calvillo’s grappling looked to be truly evolved against Jessica Eye and I like that she’s the more prepared fighter here as Chookagian is stepping in on a shorter notice. My confidence level isn’t as high as the line here might suggest, but I expect the favorite gets it done. Cynthia Calvillo by Decision
  • GB: Cynthia Calvillo by Decision

Mike Perry -115 (DK $8200, FD $17) vs Tim Means -115 (DK $8000, FD $15)

  • Anthony: When Mike Perry fights there are a lot of headlines before he even steps into the octagon, and that is no different tonight as he faces Tim Means. Perry struggled with his weight cut as he tipped the scales at 175.5 pounds for this welterweight bout. Obviously, with no professional corner and no nutritionist it is tough to imagine Perry making a run to the title anytime soon. He still has put together an excellent resume and carries some of the best punching power in the entire division. Tim Means has good boxing and often does pose a significant threat to his opponents, but it is hard to imagine him finding a way to finish Perry here. He is a lot more durable than Means and likely will be the one pouring on the pressure, whether that be while striking or wrestling. The weight cut should not have a major impact on this fight, and I see Perry cruising his way to a victory here against Means. Mike Perry by Round Two KO
  • Nick: This should be a really fun scrap between two gritty veterans. Perry’s stock has fallen a lot lately, mostly due to his out-of-the-cage antics. He missed weight badly for this one and he’s dealing with legal troubles as he constantly seems to be in the news for the wrong reasons. Means is a seasoned vet, but his cardio seems to be deteriorating and for the first time in his career his chin is a bit of a question as well. When this fight is on the feet, it’s really a match-up between Means’ technical advantages against Perry’s power advantage. Perry is usually his best on the counterattack. Means is likely to strike from range as long as he can here which could be for a while as he should be able to significantly outclass Perry’s boxing. He knows he needs to avoid Perry’s power for as long as possible, so I expect him to use his length to hit Perry off his back foot. Perry should eventually find a way to either rush Means and catch him with a shot or shoot in for a takedown to control position. One thing Perry has done right this camp is training with heavy grapplers in Yoel Romero and Jacare Souza. After losing 30% of his purse for the missed weight cut, I expect Perry to go for the win even if it means making this fight more boring than it should be. While the fans are going to want a stand-up battle, Perry would be wise to shoot for a takedown or two. He’s bigger and stronger than Means so he should be able to control him long enough to hit some ground-and-pound. Means’ is decent off his back, but his defensive grappling has proven mostly ineffective against bigger and stronger opponents like Perry. I’ll have exposure to Means for DFS purposes as he’s one of the more live underdogs on this card. However, I’m going against my better judgement and siding with the slight favorite here. If Means is out-boxing Perry, I see Perry taking this fight to the ground. Mike Perry by Round Two KO
  • GB: Tim Means by Round Two Submission

Valentina Shevchenko -1800 (DK $9600, FD $23) vs Jennifer Maia +850 (DK $6600, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Our first of two flyweight titles is up for grabs in the main event as Valentina Shevchenko looks to defend the belt against Jennifer Maia. Shevchenko’s only losses this past decade have come against Amanda Nunes while she’s done nothing but demolish opponents in every other fight. She is in the conversation for best fighter in the entire world and as the line indicates, she will not be losing today. This is a mismatch for Maia who is one of very few contenders left in a division that has been cleared out. She does not have the power to even stun Shevchenko and is not going to be strong enough to lock up any submission attempts. And Still, champion. The only question is whether or not you roster Shevchenko at this price tag. I think my exposure will be low on both sites, mainly because her floor is far below what you will need to hit value. Valentina Shevchenko by Round Two KO
  • Nick: The line looks pretty ridiculous here, but it’s mostly warranted. Jennifer Maia really hasn’t done enough to deserve this title shot but the UFC is forced to slide her in here as Shevchenko has already cleaned out the division. Shevchenko is too strong for Maia to put any sort of grappling on her, and Shevchenko is one of the best female strikers to ever step in a cage. No matter where this fight goes, I expect Valentina will have her way with Maia. It’s not so much a matter of if she’ll win, but how. She’s expensive on both DFS sites, but her floor feels as safe as anyone on this card. And still. Valentina Shevchenko by Round One KO
  • GB: Valentina Shevchenko by Round Three KO

Deiveson Figueredo -285 (DK $9000, FD $21) vs Alex Perez +225 (DK $7200, FD $18)

  • Anthony: The main event puts the men’s flyweight belt on the line as Deiveson Figueredo makes his first defense against Alex Perez. There are a lot of guys at 125 pounds that deserve a title shot but right now it seems Figueredo may be an unstoppable champion. The wins on his way to a title shot were vicious, but his two performances against Joseph Benavidez this year were downright scary. He has some of the best power in this division’s history and a BJJ black belt we have seen put to very good use in his fights. Alex Perez is a live opponent but this fight is going to be too much, too soon. The wins that he stacked so far are impressive, but not nearly the level of competition as the champion. Perez can spam the leg kicks and put together some good combinations, but I do not see him being overly competitive today. You can run some exposure to Perez on DraftKings given his price tag but I am very confident that Figueredo wins this fight. And still. Deiveson Figueredo by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Perez is getting a title shot here after Cody Garbrandt was forced to withdraw due to injury. He has excellent footwork, throws a lot of volume and keeps an excellent pace. Additionally, his calf-kicking ability is as impressive as anyone in this division. He’s a solid grappler that isn’t afraid to shoot for takedowns. He also does a good job staying out of trouble and finding favorable positions in the scramble. Figueredo is an outstanding striker with a violent approach. He’s extremely aggressive and he has a tight squeeze if he manages to find his opponent’s back. He did exactly that in his last fight, a dominant performance against Joseph Benavidez in which he captured the flyweight title. He’s finally paying a nutritionist, and at weigh-ins for this fight he looked better than he ever has before. He’s very big for this division, so seeing him make weight comfortably he should be able to fully use his strength to an advantage. The one path for Perez here is likely via his leg kicks. The only success Benavidez had against Figueredo in their last match-up came attacking the leg. Perez has found massive success with them of, including a KO via calf kicks against longtime contender Jussier Formiga. However, Figueredo knows this too and I expect him to either come out checking Perez’s kicks, or using them as entries for takedowns and control. Figueredo can be a slow starter, but I don’t think Perez can pour it on him before Figueredo finds momentum of his own. It may not happen right away, but I expect Fig to find that third gear and finish Perez in impressive fashion. The leg kicks are a minor concern, but I’m fairly confident backing the favorite here. I expect Figueredo’s size and strength to just be too much for Perez in this one. And still. Deiveson Figueredo by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Deiveson Figueredo by Round Two KO

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice

UFC 255: Fight Night LIVE Breakdown – Figueredo vs. Perez – 11.21.2020 – UFC DFS (FREE)

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