Hi guys! Joe Kooinga back again to give you the scoop on this week’s NASCAR race at Bristol Motor Speedway. This race is known for being one of the driver’s favorites on the schedule. Under the lights, sparks flying and the bottom four in points facing elimination from the playoffs! This race has all the makings to be a fan pleaser as the guys battle for a checkered flag at one of NASCAR’s most famous tracks. Let’s take a look at dominators and driver’s with place differential potential that we should target this evening.
Brad Keselowski | 1st |11,200 DK|13,700 FD|
They are using the 750HP package this week, which works in Brad’s favor. He’s won 3 races this year using the same 750HP package, they are also one of the top teams on short tracks, starting from the pole I think Brad leads laps and finishes no worse then 10th place, unless he’s caught up in a wreck. He’s expensive this week, but for good reason. He’s locked into the next round of the playoffs and I’m sure he would love to pick up another win and hog all the playoff points he can for the start of the next round with next week’s race.
Joey Logano | 2nd |9,700 DK|12,500 FD|
Joey has led laps at Bristol in 10 out of the last 13 trips here. He’s me of the best at this track. But I do want to throw a little warning out there, he’s had several races where he just didn’t have the car to win down the stretch and would start to fade. I like this play, but I’ll have more exposure to Brad, Chase Elliot, and Kyle Busch.
Martin Truex Jr | 3rd |10,000 DK|11,600 FD|
This is a tough play given Truex’s history here. He doesn’t do well here normally. He’s only cracked the Top 10 one time in the last 15 races here. Personally I almost can’t believe the history is this bad for him. Now, he does start 3rd which gives him a shot at an early lead. But if he doesn’t get the lead and history holds true, Truex will not be a good play here. I’d have limited exposure, if any.
Chase Elliot | 6th |10,700 DK|13,000 FD|
Chase would have won here earlier this year if not for a late race mistake with 5 laps to go. He came back for the all-star race and dominated here. I really like this play. He’s expensive but he deserves it here. I think he will get the lead at some point, and I think he is a very really possibility of winning this race. Hendricks as a whole is good here as an organization. I think Chase is the best of those 4.
Kyle Busch | 9th |10,400 DK|12,000 FD|
Kyle has one hell of a history here. He’s won 3 out of the last 6 races here. And finished Top 5 in two other. He’s also lead 100 laps or more in a race 5 out of the last 10 here. He’s barely hanging on to his playoff life here and really needs a top performance to even be considered a championship contender at this point. He’s down a lot of playoff points to Harvick and Hamlin. There’s still never been that breakout dominant performance from Busch this year. Could we see it this week? I think the chances are better here then most of the remaining races. I want exposure in case it does.
(Also consider Harvick and Hamlin, but being that both at pretty much locks to make it to the championship 4, as long as they can stay clean and have average races by their standards, I like other plays better)
Jimmie Johnson | 24th |8,600 DK|9,400 FD|
I like this play. He’s done pretty well here. You have to go back to 2013 (14 races) to find a race where Jimmie finished worse then 24th place here, where he starts this one. Part of team Hendricks, who does well here, and this being Jimmie’s last race at Bristol, I like the narratives here for a good finish. I know they really want to get a win before his career is through, this might be one of his last really good shots at it.
Erik Jones | 20th |9,400 DK|9,200 FD|
Great price on FD. Jones has 3 Top 5’s in 6 races here. Including 5th place in May. This is one of his best tracks and he is driving for a job next year. This is basically an audition for someone else’s team for Jones. I really like him starting 20th knowing he has potential to get near +15 place differential. I consider him a top play this week and you need to have exposure in GPP. I think he’s damn good for cash too. I like betting him to finish Top 10 as well at +110 on DK sportsbook. Good shot to double up your money.
Kurt Busch | 13th |9,100 DK|11,000 FD|
Kurt is another guy who has done pretty well here in the past. I like his DraftKings price for 9100, I think he can pay it off. He’s finished Top 10 here 5 out of the last 6 races. Including a recent win in 2018. He’s in a good spot to advance to the next round of the playoffs. But needs a good performance here to set himself up well for that next round, where the competition will be even tougher.
Clint Bowyer | 11th |8,400 DK|10,700 FD|
I like the DraftKings pricing again here, while he’s probably not the best “place diff” play. He has solid upside and should make for. Really nice cash game play on either site. He has one of the best driver ratings here if anyone in the series. I could see an easy Top 10 finish here
Matt DiBenedetto | 16th |8,100 DK|9,700 FD|
He performed well here last August, finishing 2nd. Self-admittedly he really likes this track. So I like the play, but it doesn’t come without risk. He finished 31st here right after the return and also has several disappointing finishes here peppered throughout his career stats.
Chris Bell | 18th |7,100 DK|8,600 FD|
I think the price leaves a little meat on the bone here for Bell. He was awesome here right after the return, finishing 9th place when he started 35th. That equals a great score. To dig a little deeper, he finished Top 5 here in xfin 3 out of his last 4 races. DiBenedetto had success in this car last year and Bell followed it up with a solid performance earlier this year. So I think it’s safe to say the #95 team has the right game plan here. I think he’s a very solid cash game play and I also don’t mind him for GPP either. More so on DraftKings. But viable across each platform.
Ryan Newman | 25th |7,300 DK|8,000 FD|
Newman should finish better then his 25th starting spot. He’s finished 15th or better here his last 6 races at Bristol. If he can do that again, he would be a great cash or GPP play on any site you use.
Michael McDowell | 26th |5,900 DK|5,000 FD|
I’m not huge on this play. But he’s cheap enough to help you get your builds together and he finished 14th here in May while starting 25th. I don’t expect Top 15 here, but he’s done it before so he’s worth a GPP dart throw.
Bubba Wallace | 27th |6,800 DK|6,600 FD|
I might be higher on this play then most, but Bubba is auditioning for a new ride the rest of the season. And this is a good spot for him. He was 10th here early this year. And he’s finished 16th or better 3 out of the other 4 races hes ran here. I think he’s going to finish Top 15 here and I think you need to use him. Both sites he’s a great play.
Ty Dillon | 28th |6,100 DK|4,500 FD|
I think Ty brings some of the same potential that Bubba does. Maybe slightly less. He unfortunately got caught up in a wreck here earlier this year and finished last. But that race aside, he was 20th, 15th, and 21st here 3 races prior. He’s cheap enough at 21st place finish again here would pay off his tag. Especially on FanDuel where his pricing is very soft.
Corey Lajoie | 30th |5,500 DK|3,500 FD|
Bottom of the barrel here, but he’s finished 25th or better 3 out of 7 trips to Bristol. One of which was last August. However, he’s finished 32nd or worse 3 of the other times. So it’s definitely risky. I’d rather pay up for Ty or JHN.
John Nemechek | 31st |6,400 DK|5,500 FD|
He surprised everyone with a 13th place finish here earlier this year. That’s impressive enough to have him in the player pool starting this far back. There’s some risk, but his team has shown some good results at this track even prior to JHN’s arrival this year. I think he’s suited well to move up. a GPP play, but not awful for cash either. You’d take a Top 20 for this price and be happy. Especially on FanDuel.
Keselowski, Elliot, Jones, Johnson, Bubba Wallace
Kurt Busch, Bell, Bubba, Chase, Ejones, Newman
Remember, NASCAR is a CRAZY DFS sport. Scores and your place in the money can change in a heartbeat. There are so many variables that really no one can predict. Cars can be finicky, and some will crash which can ruin your day. You need your full team to be on its game if you want to cash, and you may need a little luck. This is not a one man sport when you pick a player like other styles of DFS. There’s 30-50 guys behind the scenes who all have a hand in building the car or developing a game plan. Sometimes it only takes one mistake by one of those guys for a driver to have a bad race. That narrative does not apply to other forms of DFS, so be cautious when building your lines, but most of all, have fun!
Thank you for joining us for this week’s edition of The Checkered Flag! Make sure to give us a follow on twitter if you haven’t yet already, and stay tuned for more great content headed your way courtesy of your friends at DPA!