Hallo und willkommen everyone! It’s been an action-packed week of Bundesliga action, as we are continuously getting peppered with classic and showdown slates left and right! This is obviously a lot of work, but also a lot of fun, and I’m excited to be breaking it down for y’all, free of charge, once again! If you enjoy the content, we do hope you’ll give us a follow on twitter over at @DailyPlayAction. If you’re interested in joining our chat rooms to get updates on our Soccer plays after projected XIs come out, consider joining the DPA Premium Slack network where we will provide Cores, Locks, and adjustments to the article. Sign up for a 14 Day Free Trial!
In traditional Bundesliga fashion, let’s begin the article with our German word of the day:
Matchday 29 Term: Pokal – cup, trophy
Matchday 28 Term: Abstieg – relegation, moving down
OK, now that we’ve gotten our daily dose of German out of the way, let’s get to what you all came here for … the plays!
Borussia M’gladbach (-189) vs. FC Union Berlin (+525) O2.5 Goals
The first of our two games features 5th place Borussia Gladbach playing host to 13th place FC Union Berlin. Gladbach is fighting for the chance to qualify for Champions league play, while Berlin are fighting to stave off relegation – two teams clearly headed in different directions. Gladbach should win this game, but I’ve been surprised before playing Bundesliga DFS, and regardless, there are plays to consider for the visiting side. For the sake of the article, let’s kick things off with the home team first.
Gladbach own the Bundesliga’s third best record at Borussia-Park (9-2-3). Having said that, home/away hasn’t played much of a factor since games resumed after the break. On paper, Gladbach should throttle Berlin tomorrow. The Gladbach attack might get a little break on ownership due to Dortmund eating up a lot of that OWN% with better odds against the worst team in the league (Paderborn). If I were to bet on talent, I would prioritize French forwards Alassane Plea ($9,200) and Marcus Thuram ($8,500) in MGB stacks, each with the best odds in the game to score at (+129), forming a familiar pairing on the MGB top line. Lars Stindl ($8,100) is one of my favorite GPP plays on this slate, as he has 2 multi goal games in his last 8 appearances, but a lower floor than Plea or Thuram. I’m not as high on Jonas Hofmann ($7,900) however, as he is a little expensive with guys like Hakimi, Guerreiro and Trimmel below him. If Ramy Bensebaini ($6,500) draws the start, he makes for a GPP shout, but he’s a little pricey when you consider the floor on Christopher Trimmel at $500 more. Stefan Lainer ($4,500) is OK for value, but would probably make more sense if stacked with goalie Yann Sommer ($5,700) – my option 1b on this slate to Roman Burki.
Borussia Monchengladbach Projected XI: Sommer – Lainer, Ginter, Elvedi, Bensebaini – Kramer, Neuhaus – Hofmann, Stindl (c), Thuram – Plea (courtesy of Bundesliga.com)
On the flipside of this fixture, Berlin are one of the Bundesliga’s worst road teams, holding a record of 3-2-9 when playing outside of the Stadion An der Alten Forsteri. Berlin rank 15th in GF and 10th in GA, and I’m much more attracted to their defense in general. The heartbeat of this Union Berlin team starts and ends with Christopher Trimmel ($7,000). Trimmel is about as priced up as I’ve ever seen him, but he has the safest floor on the slate, and has notched 12 crosses in each of his last 3 games. We can expect him to dominate set pieces and corners as well, and he will be a CORE play for me on Sunday. I also like the floor we can get on Christopher Lenz ($4,400) if looking for a cheaper piece in cash games. Lenz is listed as questionable, but is no longer on the injury listed and expected to feature on Sunday. If you want to take a chance on a stack with this anemic Berlin offense, I would probably pair Trimmel with F Marius Bulter ($5,300), who is cheap and probably has the highest ceiling of any forward options available on Union. If you want to take a shot on a cheap forward like Andersson or Ingvartsen to fill out a stack, I suppose you could, but I’m not really that interested in this team outside of Trimmel.
FC Union Berlin Projected XI: Gikiewicz – Friedrich, Schlotterbeck, Subotic – Trimmel (c), Gentner, Prömel, Lenz – Ingvartsen, Bülter – Andersson (courtesy of Bundesliga.com)
SC Paderborn 07 (+750) vs. Borussia Dortmund (-304) O3.5 Goals
With this Dortmund game, we absolutely have to pay mind to the late swap opportunity at hand with this game starting at 12:30 EST as opposed to the Gladbach game starting earlier at 9:30AM. In these scenarios, I like to reserve my FLEX spot for the late game, to allow for late swap flexibility. I can personally tell you that late swapping in Fortuna Dusseldorf’s Steven Skrzybski last week won me $10,000, so keep that in mind when you’re building your rosters.
SC Paderborn doesn’t have a whole lot to be happy about these days. The West German side is headed for relegation while ranked dead last in the Bundesliga, and are winless in their last 6 games. This is a complete mismatch, and there isn’t much to love on the home team’s side. The one option that really stands out is Kai Pröger ($7,000), who has one of the best floor/ceiling/value combinations on the slate. I’ve been heavy on Pröger the last few matchdays and it hasn’t worked out, but I don’t plan on stopping now given his heavy involvement in the Paderborn attack. If you have a little faith in the Paderborn attack, I like the price tag on Dennis Srbeny ($5,500), and I think he makes for a viable one-off if you’re shy on Paderborn (I don’t blame you). There is some value in wing backs Jamilu Collins ($4,600) and Mohamed Drager ($4,100 who can both get forward and provide occasional crosses. If I have to take one, give me the savings on Drager. Outside of that its barren as hell, but if you want to humor me with GPP darts on Streli Mamba, then all the more power to you.
Dortmund are heavy favorites here, so it would be silly to fade them in any capacity or format. The usual suspects will be high on my list. Jadon Sancho ($11,200) looks set to crack the XI again with Erling Haaland sidelined with a knee ailment. Sancho ranks 3rd in the Bundesliga in Goals (14) and 2nd in the league in Assists (16). He is a CORE play in every sense of the term if he starts. My next favorite plays on BVB (and some of my favorites of the entire slate), are wing back midfielders Achraf Hakimi ($7,700) and Raphael Guerreiro ($7,300). Both are listed as midfielders on DraftKings, but the value on each is excellent considering how far Dortmund tend to push them up the field. Both work fine in cash as well, but if I had to choose I’d go Hakimi in cash and Guerreiro in GPPs. Thorgan Hazard has had two ceiling games recently, so he looks overpriced at first glance. Having said that, I’ll mix him into my Dortmund stacks as that ceiling is quite high. By the looks of it, Julian Brandt ($6,900) looks poised to start up front. I’ll be sure to include him as well if he starts as far up as is currently projected. Mah Roman Burki ($5,900) is one of two preferred goalie options tomorrow, and you can stack him with a cheap Dortmund fullback in hopes of a clean sheet. Also, if American midfielder Giovanni Reyna ($6,000) cracks the starting XI, I’ll have a lot of interest at that price.
Thank you for tuning into yet another installment of Daily Play Action’s Bundesliga Soccer coverage! Make sure to follow me on twitter at @AlexKrallDFS to get access to all of my value alerts after XI’s come out. Also make sure to follow @DailyPlayAction for coverage on all things DFS.