Hi there and welcome to the Week 6 NFL main slate edition of Fades and Pivots! My name is CD Hill (@cdhill81 on Twitter), and as DPA’s newest NFL DFS expert, you can expect a inquiry from me each and every week on what players to back off from in daily fantasy sports contests, and who to use as pivot options instead in those in order to get winning lineups that set up for low owned payoffs! With that said, and now that you know what to expect in this write-up, let’s get down to it! Wishing you lots of luck this week and here we go again!
FADE: | Patrick Mahomes (KC)
It’s clear that Patrick Mahomes’ passing prowess can’t be denied at this point in his career, but as per usual, owning him in daily fantasy sports has its flaws. For starters, his price tag is usually not fun to look at look and his popularity, DFS ownership wise, plays a heavy burden on DFS owners as well. Both are likely to be the case this week (his salary for sure) and despite the ideal matchup with Houston in Week 6 (they’ve given up the sixth most passing yards in the NFL this year), one can’t look past his solid but not remarkable numbers the past two weeks. Mahomes will also have to overcome the head scratching reality that his team is better on the road than they are at home. Chiefs games have an NFL-worst home/away total differential of -8.9 points. Now don’t get me wrong, Mahomes is likely to put up fantasy numbers that won’t merit criticism but it’s his lack of differentiation that makes him a tough GPP play. Chancing it with him in cash games makes sense, but pass on him in tourney play.
PIVOT: | Jared Goff (LAR)
After an awful start to the season, Jared Goff has bounced back in a big way for his fantasy owners the past two weeks averaging a ridiculous 456 yards per game in that time. Goff was able to destroy Tampa Bay’s porous secondary in Week 4 (517 passing yards, two TDs, and three INTs) and did a good amount of damage to Seattle’s less than stellar secondary, too (305 passing yards, one TD, and one INT). He saw the holes in both teams’ pass defense and knew they were more suited to limit the run. His next opponent, San Francisco, has a defense that’s built in a very similar way to those two squads. The 49ers are built so much in that fashion that they currently sport the second best rushing yards per game against and they’ve yet to give up a rushing touchdown this season. This sets up a Rams offense that is likely to throw A LOT in Week 6 because of this and with this Los Angeles (NFC) gunslinger predicted to have low ownership in DFS contests, you already know who I’m going to suggest going with at the QB spot. Goff is a sneaky good GPP play.
FADE: | Any Los Angeles Rams Running Back
With Rams’ main running back, Todd Gurley (quadriceps), listed as doubtful in Week 6, it’s looking like Los Angeles (NFC) is going to give Malcolm Brown the call for his squad while Darrell Henderson is likely to get his fair share of looks, too, at running back. This creates a huge amount of uncertainty with the Rams’ running game, though, and how effective it could possibly be with no clear favorite carrying the ball if Gurley sits out. It also doesn’t help DFS owners’ situation trying to figure out who to start from this team or if any running back from it is even worth starting since they’ll be facing a San Francisco defense on Sunday that’s given up the fewest daily fantasy points to running backs this year. That there is an ugly situation all-around, not to mention, Malcolm Brown’s ownership percentage in DFS is expected to be way up, so there’s probably no chance that he stands out as a contrarian play this week. All of this is why any running back from this team is a poor choice to go with at the moment in any type of DFS contest.
PIVOT: | Alvin Kamara (NO)Alvin Kamara hasn’t really done what his DFS owners expect, for the most part, in recent weeks. His total yards haven’t been too disappointing in the past two weeks but his TD total in particular, and his catch totals have been. Fortunately for Kamara and his potential daily fantasy sports owners, he faces a Jaguars team this week that is currently giving up the fifth most rushing yards and the third most rushing touchdowns (tied with five other teams) in the league. Jacksonville just gave up an eye-opening 237 total yards and three touchdowns to Panthers RB, Christian McCaffrey, in Week 5! Considering that Kamara’s style of play runs very similarly to McCaffrey’s (they’re both all-purpose running backs), he could give the Jaguars similar problems this week showing off both his rushing and receiving skills. That could lead to some solid fantasy numbers and that’s what makes him a sound GPP play since his ownership percentage isn’t expected to be too high. He’s a viable Cash game play as well. The only knock on this pick is his price but he should be worth it.
Note: Keep an eye on Alvin Kamara’s (ankle) health status before Week 6’s kickoff. He’s currently listed as Questionable.
FADE: | Odell Beckham (CLE)
In three out of his last four games, Odell Beckham has been pretty quiet offensively. He’s only averaged 3.3 catches and 34.3 receiving yards in that stretch (he even had a fumble last week against the 49ers). A lot of fantasy football experts are predicting that he comes out of his slump and puts up notable fantasy points this week since he’ll go up against a Seahawks secondary that’s middle of the pack in terms of their effectiveness against the pass. In theory, that sounds good and could happen but Beckham looks like a player who’s struggling to get on the same page as his struggling starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield. To me, the smart money points to going a different direction this week at the WR position. Beckham has to prove he’s ready to take it up a notch and do whatever he has to do in order to get back to his top notch wide receiver status. This may be the week he does that but this may also be the week he puts up another dud like performance. Since there’s still a good chance that happens, avoid playing this wideout for the time being. His popularity, ownership wise, on DraftKings and FanDuel, is a major turn off.
PIVOT: | Tyler Lockett (SEA)
Yes, Tyler Lockett had a quiet 14.3/12.3 DraftKings/FanDuel points last week and had an even quieter performance in Week 4. The thing is though, that Lockett went nuts in Week 3 against the Saints hauling in 11 passes for 154 yards and a TD. That performance really showed what he can do when he’s at the top of his game, and his matchup is suited to his skillset. This week, he has a chance to show his doubters that he’s ready to break out again and put up monster numbers against a Browns team that just got demolished by the 49ers in Week 5 (31-3). It’s true that the majority of the damage done to the Browns was through the ground in that game, but their secondary isn’t without their vulnerabilities either. This matchup with Cleveland is looking to be a good one for the Seahawks who want to keep pushing forward in the win column after a 4-1 start in 2019. Lockett is reasonably priced and will probably be owned very minimally in DraftKings and FanDuel contests. Give him a go in tourneys and don’t rule him out for Cash games either.
FADE: | Travis Kelce (KC)Most of the time, Travis Kelce is a safe Cash game play. There’s no question about that. The thing is, Kansas City has really spread the ball out a lot in their passing game this season thanks to sudden injuries springing up to some of their starters over the weeks. They may get back Tyreek Hill (shoulder, Questionable), though, their top wideout, but things will still likely be all over the place with the Chiefs passing attack and that’s led to Kelce getting fewer big games, fantasy points wise (no 100-yard games and no TDs since Week 2). There’s really no telling who Kansas City starting QB, Patrick Mahomes, will zone in on this week since he seems to be experimenting with his seemingly unlimited options at wide receiver. The odds are better than decent that Kelce will be heavily involved, but you’ll need as much DFS money as possible to spread around to more dependable and involved positions for whatever contests you have in mind. For the price this tight end will cost you, he won’t be worth selecting and hoping for the best, especially in tourneys. You can take your chances in smaller contests with Kelce but he’s not a recommended GPP play right now.
PIVOT: | Gerald Everett (LAR)It’s hard to suggest going with a suddenly hot player, especially at a position like tight end. However, this recommended pick, Gerald Everett, has gone from oh, to oh, wow! In Week 4, he had five receptions for 44 yards and one TD. That was a nice surprise, sure, but it was his follow up performance that turned heads. The following week, he hauled in seven of 11 targets for 136 yards receiving. That is a really telling stat line right there and this could be the makings of a new favorite target for Rams’ starting QB, Jared Goff. After all, it’s been Goff who’s been showing the love to Everett in the past not one, but two weeks. Los Angeles (NFC) faces a San Francisco team this week that’s usually tough against tight ends, but this player is simply too hard to resist starting right now. Goff will likely throw a lot in Week 6 due to how solid the 49ers are against the run and that could mean another big game is on the way for this Rams TE. For the price and probable low DFS ownership involved, Everett is your guy to go with in any type of DraftKings or FanDuel contest but he’s mostly one you want to target in GPPs.
Defense / Special Teams
FADE: | Dallas CowboysThe Dallas Cowboys are coming in as most expensive DEF/ST this week (tied with the Baltimore Ravens in that regard), so a lot is going to be expected of them. The downside to that expectation is that the Jets are getting Sam Darnold back at their starting QB spot and that should help New York’s (AFC) offense in a big way. Their starting running back, Le’Veon Bell, should have a much easier time taking advantage of the NFL’s seventh-best running back matchup (the Jets defense), DFS wise. The Cowboys have also not shown a killer instinct against weaker offenses, and have ended up with very few turnovers in the process when facing them (like the Giants and Redskins, for example, in Weeks 1 and 2). It doesn’t help that their ownership percentage will probably be high on DraftKings and FanDuel, too. Dallas looks like a good bet to win this week but there’s also a good chance their defense won’t be worth the hefty salary requirement when it’s all said and done. Avoid this D at all costs.
PIVOT: | Washington Redskins
Overall, the Washington Redskins really haven’t been all that good defensively. However, in the right situation, this team can show its strengths (like the close to double-digit fantasy points against the Giants in Week 4) and this week looks like the perfect time for them to do just that considering who they face in Week 6. Up next for the Redskins is a Dolphins offense that’s given up a horrendous 59 points to the Ravens in Week 1 and an average of roughly 31 points per game this season to other opponents since that ugly outing. Miami is also scoring the fewest points in the league. Their offense has arguably looked just as bad as their defense this year. Washington has a golden opportunity here to continue the Dolphins’ misery and get a much needed win in this contest. This nicely priced unit has all the signs of being a smart sleeper pick (not predicted to be owned much in DFS) in Week 6 daily fantasy sports tourneys (and a viable cash play) since their fantasy point upside in this one is considerable.
Other Fades / Pivots
(CASH/GPP) PHI | Carson Wentz
(CASH/GPP) ARI | Kyler Murray
(GPP) MIN | Kirk Cousins & WAS | Case Keenum
(CASH) DAL | Ezekiel Elliott
(CASH) CLE | Nick Chubb
(CASH/GPP) SEA | Chris Carson
(GPP) WAS | Adrian Peterson
(CASH) KC | Tyreek Hill
(CASH/GPP) CIN | Tyler Boyd
(CASH) NO | Michael Thomas
(CASH/GPP) ARI | Larry Fitzgerald
(GPP) BAL | Marquise Brown & WAS | Terry McLaurin
(CASH) PHI | Zach Ertz
(CASH/GPP) TEN | Delanie Walker
(GPP) NO | Jared Cook
(CASH/GPP) Jacksonville Jaguars
(CASH/GPP) Seattle Seahawks
Thank you very much for taking the time to catch up on NFL Week 6 with the Daily Play Action NFL Team! Premium members, please take note that a Slack Live Q+A follow up for Sunday’s NFL Week 6 Main Slate will take place from 11:00 AM-12:00PM EST on Sunday morning. Don’t forget to follow us on twitter as well at @dailyplayaction and @cdhill81 where you can find the most updated info and analysis on all NFL Daily Fantasy developments.