P | Trevor Bauer | Cleveland Indians | $11500
Opponent: Chicago White Sox
With Gerrit Cole as the top option on on the slate priced at over $13,000 Trevor Bauer profiles as a very smart pivot for $1700 less than Cole. This season Bauer has been pitching better on the road than at Progressive Field. His xFIP on the road is just 3.08 with a 0.39 HR/9 and a 2.17 ERA. Tonight he’s in a pitcher friendly park up against the White Sox.
Last season Bauer scored 27 and 28 DKFP in both his meetings with the White Sox. So far this season Bauer has scored 20+ DKFP in 11 of his 14 outings and 5 of those performances have lead to 28+ DKFP. Bauer has gone from an inconsistent starter last season to showing strong signs of consistency this year and even at his $11500 price tag on DraftKings he still profiles as a safe cash game option.
P | Kenta Maeda | Los Angeles Dodgers | $9400
Opponent: Texas Rangers
After missing a start with a right hip strain Kenta Maeda returns to the mound tonight facing the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are striking out over 25% of the time against righties and are overall just bad, that’s no surprise. Maeda’s numbers at home have been surprising however with a 32% strikeout rate and just a 2.95 xFIP when pitching at Dodger Stadium. Kenta has been very inconsistent this season as we expected, he put up 20 consecutive 30+ DKFP games before leaving his last outing after 1.2 IP with an “injury” but he had already given up 4 XBH’s in that span so it’s not like he was in for a good game anyways.
Maeda profiles as a great GPP play tonight because of his price and upside, if you can grab a guy with 30+ point upside at less than 10k in tournaments then that could be the key to taking down a GPP. Maeda is by no means a cash play tonight despite his low price, he is inconsistent, he is just returning from injury, and then there is Dave Roberts who is by far the worst coach in MLB when it comes to just letting his pitchers pitch. Great tournament upside for Maeda but there is no reason to take a risk on him in cash games.
P | Nick Pivetta | Philadelphia Phillies | $7500
Opponent: Colorado Rockies
Yesterday Aaron Nola was a pretty popular pick and for a good reason, it wasn’t only because he is the Phillies ace pitcher but the Colorado Rockies are very bad on the road. As of now the Rockies wOBA facing RHP on the road is just .279 which is tied for second worst in the league. Pivetta has outstanding numbers at home this season as well, opponents wOBA is just .244 with Nick boasting a 31.5% strikeout rate, 23% hard contact rate, 0.44 HR/9 and a 2.71 xFIP.
Those numbers are amazing especially considering he is only $7500 tonight. Luke Weaver will likely be the popular play at $7700 but with his recent poor performances I would have hoped for more of a price drop from him. With Pivetta priced nearly the same as Luke Weaver on DraftKings tonight this really creates a tough decision at SP2 and with how amazing the young Canadian has pitched at Citizens Bank Park he should be seriously considered even for cash games tonight.
Other pitchers to consider: Gerrit Cole, Luke Weaver
Good luck tonight!