Here at the DailyPlayAction, we mourn our losses, and we toast our wins.
Our goal at the DPA is to make sure that both daily fantasy lords and peasants have the tools, analysis and research necessary to reach the “green” on any given slate. So with that being said, lets evaluate the specs of how this weekend unfolded and ultimately packed some quick coin into our wallet.
Contest: NFL 75TH MILLIONAIRE SPECIAL [$1M TO 1ST]
Entry Fee: $75
Total Contestants: 60,606
Finishing Position: 255th
Not pictured: Panthers D/ST: 17.00 DK Points
Slate notes: Heading into Week 12, there were a few games that caught my eye right off of the bat. TEN-IND, ATL-TB, and MIA-NE were the three games that all had pretty high implied point totals. In two of these three games, there were high octane offenses that were all home favorites. Home/away splits are often an integral factor in my decision making process, and Week 12 posed no different of a situation.
Let’s breakdown how I got to choosing each player, position by position:
Quarterback: Matt Ryan
When identifying my Tournament QB, there are a few criteria that have to be met in order to get the nod. On DraftKings, I look for guys that are home favorites with 25+ point implied team total upside. As far as expenditures go, I prefer to take QBs priced in the $6,000-$7,000 range. Matt Ryan fit all of these categories, and faced a Tampa Bay defense that ranked 28th DVOA against the pass. 20 points felt like a very real projection this week, and sure enough it came through.
Running Backs: Alvin Kamara, Dion Lewis
The Patriots and Saints are two of teams with the healthiest RB situations in the league. Over and over again we are faced with the predicament of choosing which RB in their respective committees will be the one to prosper. More often than not this year, the Saints and Patriots have had 2 RBs incur success in the same game. With that said, I preferred Alvin Kamara over Mark Ingram this week, as I knew there would be a decent chance that the Saints would be trailing the Rams and be forced into passing situations. In retrospect, I wish that I had played Rex Burkhead over Dion Lewis. The Patriots were favored to get ahead in this game early, and I thought that would present ample opportunity for the Patriots “lead back” to see a ton of usage in the run game. Unfortunately for me, the Patriots RB situation is about as easy to forecast as New England weather patterns, and Burkhead cashed in with two touchdowns on two red zone opportunities. All factors considered, getting 55 points from my two backs was more than I could have asked for.
Wide Receivers: Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks, Dede Westbrook
12 weeks into the season, and Mount Julio has finally erupted. While I had a lot of exposure to Julez in tournaments, I failed to insert him into my cash game rosters, and boy did that one hurt a lot. Julio Jones fit the mold of what I look for in a tournament WR, as he is a consistent red zone threat, and gets peppered with targets every week regardless of the cornerback he faces. A matchup with Brent Grimes of the Tampa Bay Bucs piss poor secondary was just the cherry on top of an obvious play for me. Brandin Cooks of the Patriots also had a plus matchup with a scrub corner from the Miami Dolphins, which the DailyPlayAction obviously tweeted about to let you know before it went down:
My last receiver was (somewhat) of a longshot in Dede Westbrook, who will probably be the best receiver on the Jaguars within two weeks time. With $3,600 left to spend, it was down to Dede or Dontrelle Inman against the Eagles. Scary I know. I knew Inman would draw Eagles CB Ronald Darby, who is equipped to handle #1 receivers, where as Inman is no better than #3 WR on a non-middle school team. Westbrook was the play with the better matchup, and made about 3x value with 10.10 points to my satisfaction.
Tight End: Tyler Kroft
A general rule of thumb in DFS, is to always start tight ends against the Browns. Cleveland has been absolutely atrocious at defending tight ends (especially in the red zone), and I thought that Tyler Kroft had the ability to make Cleveland live up to their 32nd overall ranking against the position. Surely enough, Kroft conjured up a healthy 10.4 points, which was about all I could expect from a TE under $4K.
FLEX: DeMarco Murray
DeMarco Murray was a player that really got no love or exposure in pregame forecasts from DFS experts across the industry. I don’t know if this was some kind of a secret, but the guy had “guaranteed tater” written all over him. Murray was slated to take on a Colts defense that ranked in the bottom half of the league in containing the run, and DEAD LAST in limiting pass catchers out of the backfield. I know this guy is about 85% squid and 15% water, but still, this is the Colts we’re talking about here. Something had to give, and in Week 12 it did, as Murray chipped in a stable 13 points to add to my total at a generous price of just $5,200.
Defense/Special Teams: Carolina Panthers
At $3,300, the Panthers D/ST felt like a steal against a Jets team that had lost 4 of their last 5. Paying up for the Jags “lock” of a defense felt like a stretch at $4.1K, and the thought of Josh McCown getting sacked and terrorized by Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis was too great an opportunity to pass up. The Panthers did not disappoint, cashing in a TD by way of a McCown butt fumble, and a punt return returned to the house by special teamer Kaelin Clay. Moral of the story: J-E-T-S JETS! JETS! JETS!
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