The Anatomy of a Winning Cash Game Lineup | Week 5

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Oct 13, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers running back Melvin Gordon (28) runs the ball after getting the hand off from quarterback Philip Rivers (17) as Denver Broncos cornerback Chris Harris (25) and outside linebacker Von Miller (58) defend during the third quarter at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Here at the DailyPlayAction, we mourn our losses, and we toast our wins.

Our goal at the DPA is to make sure both daily fantasy lords and peasants have the tools, analysis and research necessary to reach the “green” on any given slate. So with that being said, lets evaluate the specs of how our win unfolded and ultimately achieved our goal of monetizing on DraftKings.

Contest:

Contest: NFL GIANT $250 DOUBLE UP [SINGLE ENTRY]

Entry Fee: $250

Total Contestants: 177

Finishing Position: 13th

Winnings: $500

Last week I touched on having success reaching profitability on a Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) Tournament contest in Anatomy of a Winning GPP Lineup. This week, we switch gears to shine light on our success via way of the cash game. In upcoming weeks, you can expect my DailyPlayAction companions and I to talk more about building bankroll in our Strategy component. To kick off this subject, please allow me to breakdown how I fielded a lineup that cashed in $500 this week.

One theory that I have established in my 3 years of playing DFS is that choosing players within smaller slates has correlated directly to higher profits. By choosing a single game with a high implied total, I’m able to stack and hammer without distributing too many shares of my investment into different pots.

The game I hammered this weekend was America’s Game of the Week: The Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys. 

Allocating 33% of any given lineup to one game is a big investment, but when you realize what I realized in my research, it all made sense.

In 7 matchups leading back to 2010, the Packers and Cowboys had scored an accumulative 46 points in 6 out of 7 games against each other. In those same 7 matchups, there was a total of over 65 points scored total by both teams. 

This game was about as clear of a smash spot as you could ask for, and I built my Week 5 lineups accordingly.

The Packers – Cowboys finished the week with the highest Vegas Implied Total with 52 points.

Allow me to begin by saying that the way I create my GPP lineup and the way I create a Cash Game lineup are incredibly different.

In GPPs, you must focus on selecting players that are both projected to do well, but also players that are flying under your competitor’s radar. While ownership plays a major factor in GPP contests, it does not in Cash Games due to the smaller amount of contestants. Now that I could activate my Cash Game lineup without any ownership restrictions, I went ahead and just plugged in my top plays of the week, not worrying about who else had them.

Next thing I wanted to point out – when targeting Cash Game players, you want to find guys with a not only a high ceiling, but most importantly – a high floor. Aaron Rodgers has been producing 20-30 DK point games on a more consistent basis than basically anyone not named Brady over the last 5 years. In a game that was poised to be a shootout, and questions at the running back position for GB, I knew Aaron was a lock to get solid production this week. He delivered with 24 DK points.

As we mentioned on a couple of different occasions last week on both our Bell Cows of Week 5 and our Week 5 Optimized Lineup,  Zeke was a player we were all very high on at the DPA. Surprisingly enough, Elliott was not as high on others radar as we thought he might have been. Starting a running back at home in a game with an implied total of 52 points with a talent like Zeke seems like a given to me. While he didn’t reach his ceiling as we had hoped, nearly 17 DK points in a cash game was enough for me to justify the selection.

My fantasy darling of the week was none other than Chargers hoss/stud/fantasy mongrel Melvin Gordon. Melvin torched the Giants overrated and injury decimated run defense by way ground/air for 163 all purpose yards and 2 touchdowns on 26 touches. A $6,000 price tag to go with it? Thank you sir, may I have another?

I was heavy on Gordon this week (70% exposure), and was rewarded with a glorious 37.30 DK points.

Another game with a surprise total this week was the Indianapolis – San Francisco game.

Neither team has any semblance of a defense, so naturally, I was thinking offense. TY Hilton had an inviting matchup with 49ers cornerback Rashard Robinson (PFF rating of 42.6 – 95th overall among quarterbacks), which was really all I needed to know. Hilton turned 7 receptions on 9 targets from Jacoby Brissett into 177 receiving yards and almost 28 DK points.

I honestly thought I would get more out of Jarvis Landry and Dez Bryant this week.

While both players essentially hit their mean score, neither tore down the house like I had hoped initially. Both receivers had great matchups with teams that can’t defend the pass well. Both also somehow managed to score TDs, and still not break the 20 point scoring mark. Landry’s fantasy production was primed for a huge turnout after the loss of teammate and stud wideout DeVante Parker to injury early in the game. Dez Bryant had Cole Beasley vulture two red zone opportunities from him early in that contest. Regardless, I can’t say I’m really mad at either of these two guys on Monday morning.

The Jets vowed to get Austin Seferian-Jenkins more involved in the aerial attack leading up to a game against a Browns pass defense that scored 2nd worst in the league at defending the TE position. The DailyPlayAction was all over ASJ this week in Pasternack’s Toys in the Attic and in my Week 5 Optimized Lineup, and as a whole, we were proud of his 15 point effort – netting him solid Points/Salary production.

With the Bills recent defensive success, I wanted to make sure to put in stock while it was hot against a 1-3 Bengals team. 8-10 DK points was about all I could ask for a sub $3,000 price tag (the Bills were priced at $2,600).  Lastly, Jermaine Gresham was merely a dart throw as there was nobody else at that $2,700 tier that I could justify getting 10 points. It didn’t pan out, oh well.

Overall, I’m pleased to say that another successful week is in the books, and we have one more successful cash game story to share!

The DailyPlayAction encourages success stories to be shared and celebrated with the DPA community. Please submit and share your success stories with us!