The Daily Derby – Matchday 31 (Thu) – Premier League DFS

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Welcome #Playmakers to the 4th edition of The Daily Derby, DPA’s official coverage of the English Premier League! While this is only our fourth EPL article, rest assured that we know our onions, and that playmakers are in good hands as we explore the depths of Britain’s best football league. We’re on to Matchday 31, as the EPL just resumed action with a big showdown slate of which $50,000 was taken down by a DPA Premium member (see our recent coverage), and DraftKings has offered up 10K to the winner of Thursday’s EPL Classic slate. I got very close on Wednesday, once AGAIN, nearly taking down a 50K grand prize on DraftKings, but just barely falling just short for the third time in about 10 days… here’s how my 9th place finish (of about 11,000 entries) turned out in DraftKings largest GPP:

We’ll be sure to give it everything we’ve got to steer the group on the right path on Thursday, so if you enjoy the content, please follow us on Twitter over at @DailyPlayAction / and give me a follow at @AlexKrallDFS

Disclaimer: A major part of being successful in Soccer DFS is making adjustments once the Starting XI’s for each team are announced about one hour before each slate locks. If you are unable to make changes quickly when team news is revealed, we advise against playing DFS Soccer. One of the benefits of being a DPA Premium member, is that when starting lineups are confirmed, you can rest easy knowing that myself or a DPA staff member will be available in our chat room to go over your lineup with you, and provide overarching slate updates to the channel when necessary. If you’re interested in joining our chat rooms to get updates on our Soccer plays, or updated plays on any other sport after starting lineups come out, consider joining the DPA Premium Slack Network where we will arm you with CORES, coach you with roster edits, and better your DFS game with personalized advice for all of your favorite sports! Get started with our FREE 14 Day Trial, and find out how we’ve generated over 200K in earnings for staff and subscribers since February!

The Matchups

Burnley (+210) vs. Watford (+140) | O2, 2.5

BUR14th in GF, 13th in GA | WAT18th in GF, 14th in GA

Southampton (+155) vs. Arsenal (+170) | O2.5, 3

SOU9th in GF, 17th in GA | ARS8th in GF, 10th in GA

Forwards

Danny Ings | SOU | $9,300 – Ings leads the slate in Sh/90 (3.06), and ranks 4th in all of the EPL with 16 goals. He also has the best odds on the slate to score at (+100), and leads the slate with an xG of 12.0. Ings is someone I’m very interested in at a decent discount off Auba.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | ARS | $10,000 – Aubameyang is the best pure goal scoring talent on this slate, and he will be in high demand. That said, the ownership is for good reason, as Auba ranks 2nd in the EPL with 17 goals, and also leads the entire slate in shots taken (72) and is 2nd to Ings in xG (11.9). Auba has (+110) odds to score against Southampton, and I think you’ll want a good amount of exposure to this Arsenal attack as they’ll face off against a feeble Southampton defense ranking 17th in Goals Against.

Eddie Nketiah | ARS | $5,000 – If Nketiah starts as he’s projected to, he’s an early contender to make our Daily Value. The young starlet has a 2.18 Sh/90 and a healthy 0.33 G/SoT meaning that he scores 33% of the time that his shots hit the target. If he does start, I love the salary relief we get on him, and I’ll be using him probably more than I should. Nketiah currently has (+200) odds to score on Thursday.

Jay Rodriguez | BUR | $5,800 – Surely a goal or bust GPP option (but not quite as dependant as Deeney), Rodriguez gives you the flexibility to spend up at other positions. Has (+225) odds to score and is 3rd on Burnley in Goals (5), while leading the team in Sh/90. Can generate both scoring chances and also accumulate some peripheral stats.

Troy Deeney | WAT | $7,000 – The Watford man has the best odds to score in this game at (+160) and leads the team with 6 goals. Deeney is goal or bust, so if you believe Watford can put one or two past Burnley, Deeney is the best bet with 29% of goal involvement. Still, not someone I would go crazy on exposure-wise or go out of my way to roster.

GPP Only: Obafemi (SOU), Vydra (BUR)

Midfielders

Dwight McNeil | BUR | $7,800 – Watford are the second worst defensive team on the slate with an xGA of 44.7, and Burnley M/F Dwight McNeil is set to feast. McNeil leads the slate in expected assists xA (5.5) and has 5 helpers this season already. He takes some corners (a lot go to Westwood as well) and ranks 6th in the EPL in total crosses with 195. I think he’s likely to go under-owned with many flocking to Pepe, JWP, Aubameyang etc etc, so I’ll be sure to include him in tournament play / use him in my BUR stacks.

James Ward-Prowse | SOU | $8,300 – JWP is a stud. The Southampton midfielder holds a set piece monopoly and is second on the slate in xA (4.0). He is a very balanced footballer, and can accrue fantasy points by scoring goals (4) or assisting others (3). Ward-Prowse also takes PKs, so there is some added upside in that as well. Overall a fantastic play, and someone I’ll be prioritizing in Cash Games especially.

Nicolas Pepe | ARS | $9,200 – Southampton is the worst defensive team on the slate with a 42% xGA, and Pepe is the heartbeat that makes this Arsenal midfield go. He takes corners for Arsenal and leads the team in crosses (97). Not to mention, Pepe leads the team in expected assists xA (3.6). He’s expensive, but is someone that is definitely worth the salary on a slate like this, and a prime target in Cash or GPP tournaments on Thursday.

Stuart Armstrong | SOU | $7,100 – Armstrong shoots often and shoots accurately, with a 41.2 SoT%, 2nd on Southampton to only JWP. Armstrong has come on very hot of late, with goals in 4 of his last 7 games, and 25 shots over that span. He will be one of my top GPP targets on Thursday.

Ismaila Sarr | WAT | $8,500 – I expect Sarr to draw <10% ownership on Thursday, despite having one of the safest floors on the slate. Sarr ranks 2nd on Watford in both Goals (5) and Assists (3), draws fouls, sends in several crosses (has 14 over his last two starts), and took 6 shots recently in a game against Liverpool. Basically, he can do it all, so if targeting stacks with Watford at all, I would likely want to start with him.

Buyako Saka | ARS | $5,900 – The 17-year-old wing-back has impressed in a big way since he joined Arsenal at this time last year, as he now features in a mainstay role for one of the world’s top flight teams. Saka isn’t likely to score, but has nice crossing ability for his price, with 4 assists on the season already. He brings incredible pace, and could easily set up an Arsenal goal scorer against one of the EPL’s weakest defenses.

Ashley Westwood | BUR | $6,200 – Westwood is more of a “cashy” play to me, as he brings a really nice floor to the table, while taking the majority of corners for Burnley. He also ranks 2nd on Burnley in crosses (112), and is tied w/ JWP for the 2nd best xA on the slate (4.0). The price is also fair.

GPP Only: Pereyra / Doucoure (WAT), Redmond (SOU), Ceballos (ARS)

Defenders

Ryan Bertrand | SOU | $5,600 – Bertrand is the safest / best floor defender on the slate (unless Holebas starts). He has 24 crosses over his last 4 games, and is just outside the EPL’s Top 25 in total crosses made. He’s pricey, but with few options worth paying up for at defender, he could make for a nice leverage play, and definitely someone to target in cash / or in Southampton tournament stacks.

Jose Holebas | WAT | $4,400 (IF STARTING) – Holebas broke his foot in February, and featured on June 20th for the first time since injury. He has games of 8 and 12 crosses in two of his last four starts, and would be a steal at that price if were to make the lineup. He’s tentatively out of the starting lineup currently though, so keep an eye out for starters tomorrow.

Adam Masina | WAT | $5,100 – All of the above would essentially apply to Masina as what you see above with Holebas if Masina starts and Holebas does not. That said, Holebas is the better player / better fantasy option, so let’s hope he gets the nod instead!

GPP / Punts Only: Bednarek (SOU), Valery (SOU), Lowton (BUR)

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Thank you for tuning into yet another installment of Daily Play Action’s Soccer coverage! Make sure to follow me on twitter at @AlexKrallDFS to get access to all of my value alerts after XI’s come out. Also make sure to follow @DailyPlayAction for coverage on all things DFS.