Welcome #Playmakers to the 3rd edition of The Daily Derby, DPA’s official coverage of the English Premier League! While this is only our third EPL article, rest assured that we know our onions, and that playmakers are in good hands as we explore the depths of Britain’s best football league. We’re on to Matchday 31, as the EPL just resumed action with a big showdown slate of which $50,000 was taken down by a DPA Premium member (see our recent coverage), and DraftKings has offered up 25K to the winner of tomorrow’s classic slate. I also had myself a slate this past Saturday, nearly taking down that same 25K grand prize on DraftKings, but just barely falling just short for the second weekend in a row…
We’ll be sure to give it everything we’ve got to steer the group on the right path Wednesday, so if you enjoy the content, please follow us on Twitter over at @DailyPlayAction / and yours truly at @AlexKrallDFS
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Manchester United (-240) vs. Sheffield United (+750) | O2.5
MU: 6th in GF, 5th in GA | SHU: 15th in GF, 2nd in GA
Newcastle United (+135) vs. Aston Villa (+210) | O2, O2.5
NEW: 18th in GF, 9th in GA | AVL: 11th in GF, 20th in GA
Norwich City (+320) vs. Everton (-120) | O2.5
NOR: 20th in GF, 19th in GA | EVE: 10th in GF, 15th in GA
Wolverhampton Wanderers (-180) vs. Bournemouth (+550) | O2, O2.5
WOL: 7th in GF, 7th in GA | BOU: 16th in GF, 16th in GA
Adama Traore | WOL | $9,200 – Not only is Traore an absolute bull of a man, but the matchup here is enticing. I do think Wolves are a good spot to pick on against a hapless Bournemouth side who are winless in all of their last 5 games. Traore is a playmaker that leads Wolves in assists (8), and can accrues a ton of crosses when he starts. He can also draw fouls and score points while bullying opposing defenders with superb physique. I like him better as a PT/$ player than Jimenez, and think he has a good chance to produce on Wednesday.
Marcus Rashford | MU | $9,500 – Nice 1k discount off Jimenez on Rashford here, who has the highest odds to score on this slate at (-111). Rash leads MU in goals scored (14), xG (13.9), shots (67) and SoT (29). Having said that, Sheffield are no slouch, and play a very defensive brand of football which could make things harder on Rashford to produce. I think mixing Rashford in as a one-off / in your FLEX makes sense, as Man U are all priced up and it makes it somewhat difficult to stack their playmakers efficiently.
Raul Jimenez | WOL | $10,500 – Jimenez ranks 6th in the EPL with 14 goals, and has the 2nd best odds to score on the slate at +110. His price tag is very high however, so he’s only in consideration for tournaments for me. Playing him makes the rest of your lineup tough to build, but I also think that will make him more contrarian. The Mexican striker currently boasts a 3.5 Sh/90 and xG of 13.3, both highs for the team.
Diego Jota | WOL | $7,900 – Jota takes a lot of shots and has explosive upside but a pretty low floor. His odds to score are fair for his price at (+179), and I think pairing him with Traore or even a Moutinho in cash is something I would want equity in tomorrow as a cheap(er) Wolves stack. Sports a 2.96 Sh/90, definitely not a bad goal scoring option in tournaments.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | EVE | $7,100 – I’ll be investing heavily into Everton tomorrow against the Premiership’s 2nd worst defense in Norwich (55 goals allowed). Calvert-Lewin ranks 9th in the EPL in goals scored with 13, and leads Everton starters with 2.93 Sh/90 and a 13.1 xG and a 44.6 SoT%. Calvert-Lewin is T-2nd best odds on the slate to score with Rashford at +110, yet is $2,400 cheaper. Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison, and Digne will all be priorities for me tomorrow.
Teemu Pukki | NOR | $6,600 – I went hard with Pukki last week and got burned, but I’m going back to the well (to a lesser degree) as he has probably the best odds to score (+140) for a sub 7k forward. He is goal or bust, but given his 56% goal involvement, I think we can feel good about his chances of getting on the score sheet if Norwich manage to generate any offense.
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | BOU | $4,100 – Not sure why DraftKings listed Groeneveld as a forward, as he’s essentially a wing back defender. 4.1k on a shit team against a better squad isn’t ideal, but you don’t need much from him at that price to hit value. He is the punt available at the forward position, but temper your expectations, as he is a sub-risk and could easily do nothing against a defensively stout Wolverhampton side.
GPP Only: Martial (MU), C. Wilson (BOU)
Richarlison | EVE | $7,600 – Richarlison is probably my favorite GPP M/F on the slate. He has promising odds to score at (+129), and healthy odds to assist at (+300). Norwich have the 2nd worst defense in the EPL, having surrendered 55 goals this season, and Richarlison has a knack for making bad defenses pay, with 2.87 Sh/90, 10 goals, and 3 assists already this season.
Bruno Fernandes | MU | $11,300 – Bruno is priced up very high, but takes set pieces and penalties for a good team. That said, he’s still an underdog to score (+179) and up against a very stout defensive team in Sheffield. Would probably only use him as a one off as he takes up too much salary to stack. I’m not as bullish on Man U due to the defensive matchup here, with much better situations for both Wolves and Everton in my opinion.
Jack Grealish | AVL | $8,500 – Grealish is the one man show for Aston Villa, and can contribute by means of crosses, shots, and fouls drawn. He’s essentially a lock to produce if AVL score, as he has been involved in 37% of Villa’s goals this season, and makes for a sound GPP pivot to more popular 8k midfield options.
Joao Moutinho | WOL | $8,300 – Moutinho has the safest floor of any player on this slate outside of maybe Lucas Digne. He will go the full 90, but he also probably has the lowest ceiling of any of the prized 8k midfielders that you would want to target in tournaments. I’d reserve Moutinho for cash games mostly unless you want to stack with a Jimenez or Jota in GPP.
Emi Buendia | NOR | $8,200 – Probably my favorite of the 8k mids simply from a leverage perspective. Buendia is fresh off a 10 cross affair against Southampton, and I like his chances to generate regardless of scoring better than any other options at his price range. I like Buendia as a one-off or in a stack with Norwich City forward Teemu Pukki for goal-assist correlation. If Ondrej Duda does not start for Norwich, Emi becomes a lock for me as one of only a few players that comes with a set piece monopoly.
Matt Ritchie | NEW | $8,000 – Coming off possibly his best fantasy performance of the season (28.4 DKP against red carded Sheffield earlier this week), I think Ritchie will likely draw more ownership than usual Wednesday. For that reason, I’ll likely turn to guys like Buendia and Grealish more often in tournaments. That said, I do like Newcastle a bit, and Ritchie is my starting point in all of their stacks. He leads Newcastle in crosses (62) and splits corners with Jonjo Shelvey.
Paul Pogba | MU | $6,100 – Pogba is volatile for DFS purposes, but it’s hard to complain when you get that sort of upside for half the price of Bruno. If Pogba starts, I’ll definitely be interested when looking for Man U exposure, as he can do a bit of everything, and has probably the highest ceiling of any midfielder in this price range.
GPP Only: Kean (EVE) if starting makes for a great play, Saint-Maximin (NEW), Sigurdsson (better for CASH but can use in EVE GPP stacks), Duda (NOR) a LOCK if Buendia sits, Norwood (SHU), McGinn (AVL) if starting, Cantwell (NOR), Billing (BOU) if starting,
Lucas Digne | EVE | $6,400 – As close to a lock button play on this slate as you will find. Everton are heavy favorites, and Digne should have the freedom to roam and produce as he pleases. The French national leads Everton in assists (5), corner kicks (91), and is a league leader in crosses (219). Digne will be very highly owned, but for good reason. No need to overlook him here and get cute with it, he’s a great play.
Max Aarons | NOR | $4,600 – I think Norwich have the potential to score a goal today, and if so, Aarons is their most offensive defender, and ranks 2nd on the team in crosses (57) behind prized fantasy asset Emi Buendia (147). I don’t mind Aarons in GPP stacks with a Pukki / Buendia or even GK Tim Krul if you want to be contrarian in large field tourneys.
Enda Stevens | SHU | $4,000 – Give me the $400 savings on Stevens from George Baldock, who plays exactly the same position on the other flank for Sheffield. Baldock is coming off the better game with 7 crosses, but Stevens can contribute to the same degree or better at half the ownership on Wednesday. This is largely due to Baldock’s recent game log which has better numbers, but is also likely due for negative regression while Stevens trends upwards.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka | MU | $6,000 – It’s tough to justify paying up for Wan-Bissaka with Digne only $400 more, but still, AWB is probably the 2nd best offensive crossing defender available on the slate. Will likely only use him in some MU stacks though (still not a stack I’ll have a ton of today due to pricing).
GPP Only: Williams (MU) if starting, Doherty/Jonny (WOL), Targett (AVL), Manquillo (NEW), Rico (BOU) if starting, Baldock (SHU), Hause (AVL) punt, Konsa Ngoyo (AVL) punt, Nathan Ake (BOU) punt
GPP VALUE CORE: Richarlison, Calvert-Lewin, Pogba, Jota
GPP PAY UP CORE: Traore, Bruno Fernandes, Grealish, Jimenez, Rashford
CASH CORE: Buendia, Digne, Moutinho
***For GPP lineups, mix GPP CORE with CASH CORE + others
Thank you for tuning into yet another installment of Daily Play Action’s Soccer coverage! Make sure to follow me on twitter at @AlexKrallDFS to get access to all of my value alerts after XI’s come out. Also make sure to follow @DailyPlayAction for coverage on all things DFS.