The Daily Derby – Matchday 32 (Wed) – Premier League DFS

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Welcome #Playmakers to the 5th edition of The Daily Derby, DPA’s official coverage of the English Premier League! While this is only our fifth EPL installment, rest assured that that playmakers are in good hands as we explore the depths of Britain’s best football league. We’re on to Matchday 32, as the EPL recently resumed action with a big showdown slate of which $50,000 was taken down by a DPA Premium member (see our recent coverage), and DraftKings has offered up 20K to the winner of Wednesday’s EPL Classic slate. I got very close last Wednesday, once AGAIN, nearly taking down a 50K grand prize on DraftKings, but just barely falling just short for the third time in about 10 days… here’s how my 9th place finish (of about 11,000 entries) turned out in DraftKings largest GPP:

We’ll be sure to give it everything we’ve got to steer the group on the right path on Wednesday, so if you enjoy the content, please give us a follow on Twitter over at @DailyPlayAction / and my personal account @AlexKrallDFS

Disclaimer: A major part of being successful in Soccer DFS is making adjustments once the Starting XI’s for each team are announced about one hour before each slate locks. If you are unable to make changes quickly when team news is revealed, we advise against playing DFS Soccer. One of the benefits of being a DPA Premium member, is that when starting lineups are confirmed, you can rest easy knowing that myself or a DPA staff member will be available in our chat room to go over your lineup with you, and provide overarching slate updates to the channel when necessary. If you’re interested in joining our chat rooms to get updates on our Soccer plays, or updated plays on any other sport after starting lineups come out, consider joining the DPA Premium Slack Network where we will arm you with CORES, coach you with roster edits, and better your DFS game with personalized advice for all of your favorite sports! Get started with our FREE 14 Day Trial, and find out how we’ve generated over 200K in earnings for staff and subscribers since February!

The Matchups

Bournemouth (+135) vs. Newcastle (+220) | O2.0

BOUT-16th in GF, 16th in GA | NEWT-16th in GF, 12th in GA

Arsenal (-230) vs. Norwich City (+600) | O2.5, 3

ARS8th in GF, 10th in GA | NOR20th in GF, 19th in GA

Everton (+150) vs. Leicester City (+190) | O2, 2.5

EVE10th in GF, 14th in GA | LEI3rd in GF, 2nd in GA

Forwards

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | ARS | $10,300 – Auba is going to be the highest owned player on this slate without a doubt, and carries the best ceiling available on the slate with (-200) odds to score (highest on the slate). The Gabonese striker is T-3rd in Premier League goals (17), and T-8th in shots (77), and is 3rd on the slate in xG (12.4). He is the most expensive player on the slate by nearly 1k however, which could result in his ownership falling just a bit depending on how value opens up once XIs are announced. I’ll be sure to have about 25-30% Aubameyang in tournaments on Wednesday, as there simply aren’t enough options with similar upside.

Eddie Nketiah | ARS | $7,900 – Nketiah has been our top value play time and time again since the restart, and has paid off each time. His price is significantly higher than when we recommended him last, but with promising odds to score at (+120) against an awful defensive team littered with injuries (that is also very tired from playing 120 minutes earlier this week), I think Nketiah will be one of my highest exposed plays on Wednesday as we get a nice discount off of Aubameyang despite 2 goal upside for the 21 year old. Nketiah is goal or bust however, so make sure to not be over exposed to any one player in general in your tournament lineups.

Jamie Vardy | LEI | $8,400 – Vardy has not really been himself of his late, and has found difficulty in replicating his early season form which has him in pole position for the league’s golden boot (1st in the EPL with 19 goals). Not having James Maddison in the lineup will definitely give Vardy a bump down, but we’re still talking about a player who leads the slate in xG (14.5), and can easily find the score sheet from the penalty spot, or with a little bit of luck in general. He is overdue for a goal, and I would love to capitalize on him at low ownership against a below average Everton defense, ranking 14th in goals against.

Joelinton | NEW | $5,700 – I’d like this play better if Matt Ritchie (Newcastle’s key distributing attacking midfielder) was fit to play, but overall I like Joelinton as a punt attacker with goal upside. He is absolutely goal or bust, but someone I don’t mind taking some shots on in GPPs at that price with 3-4 shot upside against a defensively weak Bournemouth squad ranking 16th in GA.

Richarlison | EVE | $9,000 & Dominic Calvert-Lewin | EVE | $8,100 – Overall I’m not too psyched on the Everton attack for this slate. Despite Everton being slight favorites at +150 (no Maddison for LEI most likely being the reason), Leicester are a very stout defensive team, and have given up the second least goals in the Premier League, conceding only 29 times through 31 games played this season (less than a goal per game). To make matters worse, Everton have only scored once in their last three games, despite a matchup against Norwich (19th in GA) on the 24th of June that should have seen Everton net 2-3 goals at a minimum. For these reasons, I think I’ll be underweight on the Everton attack, but am fine taking some shots on both of these guys in stacks with Digne and the cheap Everton flank midfielders in tournaments. If looking for the goal, take DCL. If looking for peripheral stats in a 1-0 Leicester shutout win for example,i would prefer Richarlison who can contribute some peripherals where as DCL needs that goal to matter. Overall, both players are GPP only options.

GPP Honorable Mentions: Almiron (NEW), Pukki (NOR)

Midfielders

Nicolas Pepe | ARS | $9,500 – Pepe is likely to be the highest owned midfielder on this slate, but is also forward eligible. He leads the team in assists (6), xA (3.9), crosses (99), and corner kicks (59). Pepe also takes shots (44) and scores goals (5), both good for 3rd on Arsenal. The matchup is prime for Pepe in this spot, the problem with Arsenal is that it can be difficult to predict consistency fantasy wise among their attackers. Having said that, Pepe is a fine option, and I’ll have healthy exposure in tournaments.

Emiliano Buendia | NOR | $8,700 – Buendia is a superb footballer that would dominate set pieces should Duda not get the start (vice versa goes for Duda if Buendia doesn’t start). Buendia leads the team with 7 assists, xA (7.2), crosses (151), and corners taken (98). I would like him a lot better if Duda doesn’t start, seeing as Norwich are underdogs and it could limit his set piece volume. If Duda doesn’t start, Buendia makes for a fine GPP/Cash play. If Duda does start, Emi is less of a lock and more of a GPP only play with capped floor/upside.

Marc Albrighton | LEI | $5,400 – Albrighton is set to start at right midfield for Leicester, where some of James Maddison’s production will need to be replaced. Albrighton does send in crosses, and had 6 of them to go with 2 assists just two games ago against Aston Villa. At $5,400, I don’t hate the price for Albrighton’s role, but wouldn’t prioritize him as a one off. If using Albrighton, I would be more likely to stack him with Richarlison or Calvert-Lewin, or even double stack / replace him with defender Lucas Digne.

Bukayo Saka | ARS | $7,000 – He’s not currently in the projected XI via whoscored.com but if he does start, he has about as mint of a matchup as one could hope for against a Norwich team that rank second to last in the EPL (19th) in GA. He’s priced up from where he usually is which will certainly lower his ownership. Saka has been playing excellent soccer lately, so I may try to take a heavier position on him tomorrow in tournaments as I know many won’t want to pay that price. Let’s see if he ends up starting.

Alex Iwobi | EVE | $5,000 – The former Arsenal man is in line to start again, and could be a very promising value play at his price. Iwobi will start on the wing, and should factor into goal scoring opportunities, with 8 crosses in his most recent outing against Norwich. If he starts on the edge of the midfield, I’ll be interested, as Leicester City are a team that will likely be without their star player James Maddison. If Maddison plays, I would likely play Iwobi slightly less, as I think Everton might have to play more defensively to contain the Leicester attack.

Junior Stanislas | BOU | $4,300 – Stanislas is poised to start at right midfielder where he posted 6 crosses on his way to 8 DKP at just $3,300 on June 24th vs. Wolves. Newcastle serves as an easier opponent, and given his positioning in a playmaking role with set pieces, I’m happy to roll him out in either format at that price as one of the better PT/$ plays on the slate. There is a very strong chance he’ll be subbed out during the game if starting however, so you may only have 60ish minutes or so for him to get the 7-8 fantasy points you’ll need out of him. This shouldn’t be problematic against Newcastle.

Youri Tielemans | LEI | $4,100 – Tielemans could be a candidate for Wednesday’s Daily Value if James Maddison does indeed miss with an injury picked up in training this week. Tielemans is 2nd on Leicester city in Assists (5) and xA (5), while 4th in crosses (48) and 2nd in corners taken (14). With Maddison absent, Tielemans would then split set pieces with Chilwell. Both players will see a significant bump in that case, but I would prefer Chilwell straight up should Maddison make the XI. He is a sub risk.

GPP Honorable Mentions: Ceballos (ARS), Saint-Maximin (NEW), Gray (EVE), Brooks (BOU), Cantwell (NOR), Ndidi (LEI), Bernard (EVE)

Cash Honorable Mentions: Billing (BOU), Cantwell (NOR)

Defenders

Ben Chilwell | LEI | $6,200 – Likely to get a boost on set pieces with Maddison likely to miss with a hip injury. Chilwell already ranks top 33 in the EPL crossing volume, and should be able to build on that here with Maddison out and more dead ball situations to take advantage of. He is my favorite playmaking GPP defender on this slate against an Everton defense ranking 14th in goals against this season.

Lucas Digne | EVE | $7,200 – Digne is the most consistent defender in all of Soccer DFS outside of maybe Trent Alexander-Arnold. Digne is third in the EPL in crosses (has 7+ in 3 of his last 4 games), and would be likely even more active if Gylfi Sigurdsson doesn’t crack the XI. The french wingback leads the team in crosses (227), corners taken (96), and assists (6), and would certainly be the first “delivery” player I would target in any Everton stack. Digne is the best cash game play on the board and a great play in all scoring formats despite a tough matchup against Leicester. Is playable as a one-off, which is likely how I’ll use him the most on Wednesday unless plugging in Everton value plays elsewhere.

James Justin | LEI | $5,000 – Starting opposite of star wingback Ben Chilwell is the less heralded James Justin. Justin can also get forward and is averaging 3 crosses per game over his last three starts. More impressively however, is Justin’s average of nearly 11 DK PPG over that span despite no goals or assists. He is a player that can generate peripherals without the need to find the scoresheet, which is rare at 5K and below. I think he’s a solid play on Wednesday, and I would feel comfortable using him in cash games especially. Having said that, Justin also serves as a GPP pivot to Lucas Digne that will make your lineup instantly contrarian.

Kieran Tierney | ARS | $5,700 – Tierney is not usually someone I like to target for DFS purposes. That however, might change if he starts at wing midfielder rather than LB. Doing so would likely lead to generation of more scoring chances against one of the Premier League’s worst defenses. Look out for the Arsenal formation to see where he’s positioned on the pitch before locking him in. Tierney is a GPP only option as it stands, and not a priority play by any means, but could be viable if starting in a flank midfield role.

Max Aarons | NOR | $4,400 – While normally cash viable, Aarons is at tremendous sub risk after playing 120 minutes in the FA Cup this week and also picking up an injury. If he starts, it’s unlikely he goes the full 90, which is too bad because the price is nice considering his involvement in the offense from the flank. GPP only, but probably minimal exposure here. If Aarons doesn’t start, I would be significantly more interested in Jamal Lewis ($3,800) who would likely take on responsibility as Norwich’s priority attacking defender.

Caglar Soyuncu | LEI | $3,700 – Soyuncu is a nice option to punt with at defender, as he can generate defensive peripherals such as tackles won and interceptions. Nothing I love about him, but I’m fine slotting him in if necessary. Realistically, I think there’s a decent chance at earning the +3 point clean sheet bonus here, if not, 6-7 points isn’t bad at that price.

GPP Honorable Mentions: Bellerin (ARS), Stacey (BOU), Evans (LEI) punt,

Cash Honorable Mentions: Coleman (EVE)

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Thank you for tuning into yet another installment of Daily Play Action’s Soccer coverage! Make sure to follow me on twitter at @AlexKrallDFS to get access to all of my value alerts after XI’s come out. Also make sure to follow @DailyPlayAction for coverage on all things DFS.