Welcome #Playmakers to the 6th installment of The Daily Derby, DPA’s official coverage of the English Premier League! We’re on to Matchday 34, as the EPL recently resumed action with a big showdown slate of which $50,000 was taken down by a DPA Premium member (see our recent coverage), and DraftKings has offered up 10K to the winner of Tuesday’s EPL Classic slate.
We’ll be sure to give it everything we’ve got to steer the group on the right path on Wednesday, so if you enjoy the content, please give us a follow on Twitter over at @DailyPlayAction / and my personal account @AlexKrallDFS
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Crystal Palace (+650) vs. Chelsea (-220) | O2.5
CRY: 19th in GF, 7th in GA | CHE: 4th in GF, 9th in GA
Watford (-160) vs. Norwich City (+425) | O2.5
WAT: 18th in GF, 15th in GA | NOR: 20th in GF, 19th in GA
Olivier Giroud | CHE | $7,900 – The French international feels underpriced to me, especially for a striker with the second best goal scoring odds on this mini two game slate (+129). Giroud has found the net 4 times in his last 7 appearances, and while Palace sport a stingier defense (7th in GA) / xGA 44.3, I do think Chelsea will break through at least twice. A 2-0 or 2-1 win in favor of Chelsea is what I see happening, and I could definitely see Giroud adding to his 2020 tally, while easily paying off his price tag. Giroud is a goal or bust option, so keep him in your GPP pool.
Troy Deeney | WAT | $7,100 – Watford should find goals at home against bottom dwellers Norwich, especially with the former trying to stave off relegation while the latter have nothing to play for. Deeney possesses the best odds to score on the slate at (+110) , and I’d consider him to be a strong GPP play despite not having scored since late February (5 game scoring drought). I’m hoping this will lower his ownership, and give us an opportunity to capitalize on Deeney shares in tournament play.
Jordan Ayew | CRY | $7,300 – If you like Crystal Palace to score tomorrow, there’s a good chance that goal will come via striker Jordan Ayew, who leads the team in goals (9), shots (51), and xG (6.3). Chelsea are middle of the pack defensively, so it’s not incomprehensible to believe that Ayew can break through. Crystal Palace will be about as contrarian as you can get on a two game slate, and in GPP, Ayew is a preferred goal scoring target.
GPP Honorable Mentions: Townsend (CRY) GPP VALUE, Pukki (NOR)
Willian | CHE | $10,500 – The Brazilian midfielder has been on fire of late, scoring 4 goals in his last 3 games. Willian contributes in many ways offensively, with an average of 7 crosses and 3 shots per game over his last 4 outings. He has the best floor/ceiling combination available on the slate, and is someone I’ll feel comfortable rostering in any format / regardless of game script.
Ismaila Sarr | WAT | $9,400 – Watford are big home favorites to Norwich city at Vicarage Road on Tuesday, and Sarr finally has a matchup that we can get excited about. The Senegalese midfielder has a set piece monopoly, so you can expect any and all distribution from corners or dead ball situations to come off of his boot. Sarr is also a threat to score (5 goals), and has decent odds to score (+150) against a defensively poor Norwich side that rank 19th in GA (61) and hold an embarrassing 51.7 xGA. This is about as good of a matchup as we could hope for the Watford attack, and I’ll likely be running a lot of Sarr-Deeney stacks *god bless my soul*
Emiliano Buendia | NOR | $8,000 – Buendia and Ondrej Duda ($6,000) split set pieces for Norwich, so if one of them is out while the other starts, the starting player becomes a great play with a set piece monopoly. If both start as projected, I won’t be interested in Duda as much as I would Buendia, who is Norwich’s primary set piece taker and assist leader (7). Buendia ranks 12th in the EPL in total crossing volume (154 on the season) and is someone that I’ll be targeting more than usual at an appealing price point on both sites, but especially on FanDuel at just $14.
Christian Pulisic | CHE | $8,800 – The American is sure to be chalky on this two gamer, but he’s essentially a lock for 3 shots tomorrow which isn’t awful for under 9k. Overall, I’d much rather spend up for Willian, but Pulisic has scored twice in his last 4, so he could make some noise in tournaments, and I’ll roster him in some GPP lineups for that reason.
Mason Mount | CHE | $7,800 – The 21-year-old is scoreless in his last 4 appearances, and we get a discount on him here against Palace. He does play a bit deeper than Pulisic/Willian though, so I’ll side with those two before I look to jam in Mount. Many other DFS players will consider that strategy as well however, so I wouldn’t fault you for looking to Mount as a way to get Chelsea exposure at slightly lesser ownership.
Danny Welbeck | WAT | $5,500 – Nothing fancy about Danny Welbeck, as he’s literally done jack shit this season, but the price is cheap, and his goal scoring odds are surprisingly good at (+160). Even more interesting, is the fact that Welbeck has 3 Premier League goals against Norwich City in his career. If he does indeed start in the top 3 of the Watford formation tomorrow, I’m into rostering him as a GPP goal or bust option.
GPP Honorable Mentions: Milivojevic (CRY) TAKES PKs, O. Hernandez (NOR) GPP VALUE, Duda (NOR), Doucoure (WAT), McCarthy (CRY)
Marcos Alonso | CHE | $6,400 – MACROS Alonso is a fantastic option against Palace on Tuesday. He gets forward frequently and already has 4 goals on the season. The Spaniard becomes an even healthier and cash viable play if Azpilicueta sits. Highly recommend having at least one Chelsea defender in the majority of your lineups tomorrow, as none of the other teams really have great offensive defender options.
Cesar Azpilicueta | CHE | $5,900 – We get a slight discount on Azpilicueta from Alonso, who is less likely to score a goal, but conversely more likely to assist on a goal (+400). He leads Chelsea in assists (6) and xA (5.7). If Azpilicueta sits, then Reece James ($5,700) would make for a very formidable play in a similar role.
Patrick van Aanholt | CRY | $5,200 – The Dutch left back has been a force for Palace all season, ranking 2nd on the team in crosses (79) and corner kicks (40). I like him as a floor play (solid for cash games) that could easily eclipse 10 points tomorrow.
Jamal Lewis | NOR | $3,900 – Up until this point of the season, I’ve preferred Max Aarons, who starts at the same position but on the opposite side for Norwich City. Lately, it seems as though Lewis has been the wing back getting forward, while crossing the ball more often. Lewis has two games of 4+ crosses in his last three outings, where as Aarons has none. Happy to pay under 4k for Lewis if looking to save at D.
Jose Holebas | WAT | $4,500 – Holebas appears to be in Nigel Pearson’s dog house, as the player has failed to start much at all this season. When he has played however, Holebas has demonstrated an ability to get forward, with two games of 8 and 12 crosses consecutively. If he gets the start, I would be intrigued at that price point, though as it stands, I’m not expecting him to have that priviledge.
GPP Honorable Mentions: Masina (WAT), Cahill (CRY) PUNT
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Thank you for tuning into yet another installment of Daily Play Action’s Soccer coverage! Make sure to follow me on twitter at @AlexKrallDFS to get access to all of my value alerts after XI’s come out. Also make sure to follow @DailyPlayAction for coverage on all things DFS.