Welcome #Playmakers to the 7th edition of The Daily Derby, DPA’s official coverage of the English Premier League! We continue on with Matchday 34, and DraftKings has offered up 20K to the winner of Wednesday’s EPL Classic slate!
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Manchester City (-800) vs. Newcastle (+2000) | O3.5
MCI: 1st in GF, 5th in GA | NEW: 14th in GF, 11th in GA
Sheffield United (+300) vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers (+115) | O2.0
SHU: 16th in GF, 4th in GA | WOL: 8th in GF, 6th in GA
West Ham (EVEN) vs. Burnley (+300) | O2.5
WHU: 11th in GF, 17th in GA | BUR: 12th in GF, 12th in GA
Michail Antonio | WHU | $8,300 – Has scored in b2b games for West Ham and is averaging over 3 shots per game over each of his last three outings. Antonio has also been directly involved in 5 goals in his last 6 EPL appearances for WHU. He holds the best odds to score (albeit not great odds) in the West Ham – Burnley game at (+200). A true goal or bust GPP play that will surely go underowned with City on the same slate, and one of my favorite GPP plays against a beatable Burnley side.
Gabriel Jesus | MCI | $8,500 – Jesus currently sports the best odds to score on the slate at (-159) and also leads City in xG (15.0) and in SoT% 44.4. As the net front presence for a heavily favored Manchester City side, he will be very popular at that price. Jesus is a solid play by all accounts on Wednesday.
Chris Wood | BUR | $8,000 – Wood looks set to return to the lineup against West Ham’s 17th ranked defense. Wood has scored 5 EPL goals against West Ham throughout his career already, and will be hungry to find the score sheet again on Wednesday. Makes a fine GPP pivot off of Gabriel Jesus in GPP tournaments.
Raheem Sterling | MCI | $8,900 – Ranked T-11th in EPL Goals (13th), and 3rd on a stacked Man City side in xG (13.0), Sterling should start in an advanced position against a porous Newcastle squad. Sterling holds the second best odds on the slate to score a goal at -125, and looks like a sound GPP pivot off De Bruyne / Gabriel Jesus if he starts.
Raul Jimenez | WOL | $9,400 – Ranks atop the EPL in shots taken (108) and 4th in the EPL in shots on target. Jimenez is tied for 7th in EPL goals with (15), and has the highest odds to score in this game at (+150). Sheffield pose a challenge defensively, but if Wolves score, Jimenez is likely to play a part as he has this season, contributing to 46% of Wolverhampton’s goals.
Jarrod Bowen | WHU | $9,500 – Bowen is someone I want to be over the field on, as the Hammers recent acquisition has really come on strong with 3 assists in his last two games. Bowen is a threat to score as well (+225 odds), and sends in several crosses as evidenced by recent performances. I can’t see Bowen being more than 10% owned tomorrow, which makes him an intriguing GPP play with an decent floor.
GPP Options: McBurnie (SHU), Jota (WOL), Rodriguez (NEW)
Phil Foden | MCI | $8,100 – Foden is my favorite City tournament play (sans KDB), as he has contributed to 5 goals in his last 4 appearances (3 Goals, 1 Assist). We also get a nice discount on him here, and if starting in the top third, has an excellent chance to net at (+120). Foden is an accurate shooter, leading City in SoT% (though through limited chances), and I think he scores against Newcastle on Wednesday.
Kevin De Bruyne| MCI | $11,700 – De Bruyne is a plug and play most slates, as his floor / ceiling combo is seldomly ever matched. I don’t have any reason to believe he can’t hit value again here, with great goal scoring odds (+129), while leading the Premier League in assists (17). He is very expensive, but still a prime cash game candidate with high tournament upside.
Dwight McNeil | BUR | $9,100 – 10th place Burnley have a good shot to upset 17th placed West Ham in this game, who will play hard to steer clear of the relegation zone. All relevant set pieces for Burnley will run through Dwight McNeil. He has three games over his last 10 appearances with 9+ crosses, and Oliver Norwood (mentioned below from Sheffield) launched 10 crosses against this same West Ham side in their last game, so I think there’s a good chance we could see 12+ crosses here from a better player in the same matchup with McNeil. This would become far more likely if Mark Noble and/or Cresswell don’t start, but I’m fine rostering McNeil either way.
Joao Moutinho | WOL | $6,900 – Moutinho is about as “cashy” as they come, but could potentially hit some upside if Traore comes off the bench rather than cracking the starting 11. If Traore starts, Moutinho would be a cash only play for me (albeit a good one), but I’d probably likely spend down to Norwood or possibly even Westwood instead in that scenario with the threat of Traore vulturing his chances at getting involved in the attack.
Oliver Norwood | SHU | $5,000 – Norwood as mentioned above, is coming off a 10 cross outing against West Ham, and should see a similar amount of set pieces with John Fleck out of hte lineup. At only $5,000, Norwood is mispriced, and would become a staple in my cash lineup (if I played cash in SOC). The Sheffield midfielder ranks top 10 in the EPL in crosses, and feels like a solid bet for 2x value on Wednesday’s slate,
Ashley Westwood | BUR | $6,400 – The Burnley midfielder is tied for the team lead in assists (6) and is second on the team in xA (4.5) and crosses (120). Westwood takes most of the Burnley corners, and I’m happy to run out either Westwood or McNeil in stacks with Chris Wood or Jay Rodriguez if looking to profit off of a potential Burnley win on Wednesday.
GPP Options: Mahrez (MCI), Neves (WOL), Soucek (WHU), Gudmundsson (BUR)
Cash Options: Rice (WHU)
Matt Doherty | WOL | $5,400 – Doherty is my top GPP defender on this slate, as I think he goes under owned with respect to his goal scoring upside. I think he’ll land under 10% owned, and I’m fine taking some shots on him in tournaments, as he looks to build off of 4 goals and 2 assists this season.
Benjamin Mendy | MCI | $5,200 – Mendy is the most likely defender to end up on the score sheet (likely by way of assist) at +400 odds. With City having put up 14 goals and surrendered 0 in their last four home games, Mendy has the opportunity to both find the score sheet, and accrue bonus points via a clean sheet on Wednesday.
Kyle Walker | MCI | $4,800 – Walker isn’t as offensively minded as Mendy, but still can get lucky with the occasional assist from the wing back position. With most people flocking to Mendy, who is likely to draw high ownership, I’m not opposed to pivoting to Walker in tournaments, who could outscore him at half the ownership, and also has a strong likelihood of a clean sheet bonus (+3 points).
Jonny | WOL | $5,000 – Jonny is the more consistent of the two Wolverhampton wing backs, and would be my option in cash games if deciding between him and Doherty. Jonny has managed double digit DraftKings points in 5 of his last 6 games, and is a safe bet to do so again for 2x value tomorrow.
GPP Options: Baldock/Stevens (SHU), Saiss (WOL), Otamendi/Fernandinho (MCI)
Highest Exposed: Kevin De Bruyne (KDB)
GPP CORE: Jesus, Wood, Antonio, Jimenez, McNeil, Sterling, Mahrez, Foden
CASH CORE: KDB, Norwood, Westwood, Moutinho, Jonny, Mendy, Pieters
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Thank you for tuning into yet another installment of Daily Play Action’s Soccer coverage! Make sure to follow me on twitter at @AlexKrallDFS to get access to all of my value alerts after XI’s come out. Also make sure to follow @DailyPlayAction for coverage on all things DFS.