The Daily Diamond – 5.30 – Free KBO Slate Breakdown – FanDuel and DraftKings

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Hey Playmakers!!! Nick Marro here with my KBO Breakdown for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Until the MLB returns, my focus will be on the Korean Baseball League. In addition to my Core-5 for each site, I’ve also provided you with my top Pitchers and Stacks for tonight/today’s slate which locks at 1AM EST on FanDuel and 4:00 AM EST on DraftKings.

It’s been a while since we’ve had any Baseball DFS, so it’s important to remember the following. Stacks win tournaments, there’s a ton of variability, and variance can be your friend as ownership is often correlated to the lines/odds in Vegas. I recommend starting any line-up with a hitter stack and then building from there. We don’t yet have the quality Sabermetrics we do for the MLB, so we’re stuck relying on some older metrics in some cases. Regardless, it’s going to take some time to get used to this new league. The slate locks at 1AM EST on FanDuel and 4:00 AM EST on DraftKings, so set an alarm if you’re playing for a lot of money and make sure your guys are in the line-up. If you have a recommendation for what you’d like to see in this article, just let me know!!!

Top Pitchers
Mike Wright/NC Starting P ($8,900/$27): Wright was nearly perfect his last start against Hanwha before he got tagged for a 3-Run HR pulled down the right-field line by Young-Kyu Lee.  His 5.15 FIP is still a major red flag, but he’s facing a Samsung Lions squad tonight with the lowest implied total on the slate (3.25) and I feel strongly that his advanced metrics are going to improve as he adjusts to pitching in this league. The most impressive thing about Wright is his K-upside. He managed a 9.20 K/9 in his short MLB stint last season. Obviously, this is a softer level of competition, so I’m comfortable backing him here even though his numbers aren’t yet where we’d like them to be. He seems aligned for the Win Bonus here as well as a -235 favorite. He’s one of my favorite options on this slate. I’ll have plenty on both sites tonight.

Chan-Gyu Lim/LG Starting P ($25):
DraftKings has decided not to include the 1AM EST  LG vs. KIA game tonight, so LIM IS ONLY PLAYABLE ON FANDUEL. It’s a shame if you play on DraftKings, because he’s likely going to be a quality option here and we’re generally lacking quality SP options on this slate. He’s looked excellent so far in 2020, carrying an impressive 2.28 FIP as well as an excellent 10.50 K/9. He has a tough match-up against KIA here tonight, but oddsmakers are only giving them a 4.02 Implied Team total. He’s not my favorite option on this slate, but he has excellent upside. He’s a strong play on FanDuel, especially at this price.

Won-Tae Choi/Kiwoom Starting P ($9,100/$25):
Choi hasn’t exactly been electric this season, but he’s carrying a very strong 2.99 FIP and has yet to allow a HR across 4 GS. KT will be a tough test for him here, but we’re lacking quality SP options on this slate. KT may be able to string together a few baserunners in this spot, but his ability to keep the ball in the park is a major differentiator on this specific slate. Oddsmakers are giving KT a sketchy 4.7 Implied total here, but I’m not buying it. I prefer Choi’s floor over some of the other options on this slate. He’s viable on both sites here this evening.

William Cuevas/KT Starting P ($7,700/$25): DISCLAIMER… This is a VERY risky option here. It’s a bit unlikely this shakes out in our favor, but Cuevas’ upside at this price makes him a worthy consideration. As good as Kiwoom’s offense has been, they actually lead the KBO in Strikeouts this season with 165 to date. Cuevas is carrying a serviceable 4.38 FIP so far in 2020 as well as a solid 7.8 K/9. This is far from a lock, but I like Cuevas’ upside as a low owned value option in what I’m comfortable calling one of the thinner SP pools we’ve seen this season. I recommend limiting exposure if you lean in this direction, but he’s a viable GPP play on both sites here.

Also Consider: David Buchanan/Samsung Starting P, FD ONLY- Chan-Gyu Lim/LG Startin P

Top Stacks (and who I’m targeting):
Note: Just like in MLB DFS, stacking is extremely important. Since the KBO has far fewer HRs than the MLB, ‘small ball’ can be your friend. Your one-off plays should either be excellent value – or guys with raw power (or stolen base) potential. Try your best to stack and double-stack using the following teams. From there feel free to use one-offs.

Doosan Bears (DOO):  I know it’s going to frustrate some of you reading this article, but I’m once again on Doosan here tonight. They’re set to square off against 19-year-old Jun-Won Seo, the same SP they scored 5 ER against on May 13th. Doosan has a 6.2 Implied Run total in this spot. So while it does feel like we’re bashing our heads into a wall going after them again (and again) here – it’s the right play on this slate. Jose Fernandez (1B) is the top bat to own on this team. His price is climbing, but he continuously produces as one of the best hitters in this league. He’s a top priority for me everywhere tonight. After Fernandez, Jae-Hwan Kim (OF) appears to be healthy after an injury scare last week. Keep an eye on the line-up, but as long as he’s in he’s a strong play everywhere and the clear-cut #2 option on this team. Jae-Il Oh (1B) has missed his last eight games now, but he has been activated off the IL. If he’s back tonight I’d prioritize him here as well (although I’m not too confident in that shaking out. Joo-Hwan Choi (1B/2B) is still too cheap on DraftKings with a potent bat in his own right. Kun-woo Park (OF) and Soo-Bin Jung (OF) are solid plays here as well and both worth prioritizing. If Jae-Won Oh (2B) or Jae-Ho Kim (SS) make the line-up (they both should) they’re excellent value options near minimum price. If either doesn’t that likely means we see Kyoung-Min Hur (3B) again. Hur went off last night and generally comes in at low ownership as he’s not an everyday player. There’s really no wrong way to go when stacking this team. If a guy is in the Starting line-up for DOO, he’s in consideration for me everywhere. If you go this route it’s probably going to be worth waking up early and checking the line-ups. Catcher Se-Hyuk Park (C) is also viable everywhere.

SK Wyvens (SKW): It’s been a long time since I wrote up these Wyverns, but I’m more than comfortable utilizing them tonight against Hanwha’s Shi-Hwan Jang. Jang has been terrible so far this season, allowing a comical 16 ER across only 20 IP. I feel it’s pretty telling that oddsmakers are giving SK a 6+ Implied Team total here, even though they currently have the worst record in the KBO (5-16). These guys have been ice cold for much of the season, but they’re coming off an 8-Run performance and they’ve scored 6+ in back-to-back games. As always when stacking SKW, Jamie Romak (1B/OF) and Jeong Choi (3B/SS) are the two bats I’m looking to prioritize here. This isn’t a team with a ton of power, but both Romak and Choi have legitimate multi-HR upside, which is generally pretty rare in this league. Oddly enough, Romak is too cheap on FanDuel as Choi is too cheap over on DraftKings. If I go this route, I plan to jam both in – so it’s nice the prices will offset a bit here. As far as secondary pieces are concerned, I’m targeting Soo-Kwang Noh (OF) and his .400 OBP as well as a hot Jin-Gi Jeong (OF) who has 10 Hits across his last 6 games played. Since this team doesn’t have a ton to offer in terms of raw power, I’d be fine using smaller stacks than we usually would than with the NCs and Doosan’s of the world. Otherwise, I’m comfortable turning to Eui-Yoon Jeong (OF) and Jin-Gi Jeong (OF) as the last pieces in.

NC Dinos (NCD): Usually the Dinos are our safest option, but tonight they must be considered Boom-Or-Bust. They’re facing David Buchanan in this spot, who has been about as unpredictable as a pitcher possibly can be. He’s Won 2 Games with dominant performances, allowing 0 ER in each. However, in his two losses – he allowed 15 ER and 4 HR across 11 IP.  I’ll run out some DInos stacks here, but I don’t mind the idea of hedging w/ Buchanan in a line-up or two as well. Oddsmakers have the Dinos at 6+ Runs tonight, so odds are they do end up tagging him here regardless. You’re going to have to wake up and check, but Eui-ji Yang (C) is my favorite bat in this stack if he makes the lineup here. He has been nursing multiple injuries, so be sure to confirm he’s starting before lock, but he fills a void at a weak Catcher position on DraftKings, and he’s truly one of the best bats in the KBO when he’s in. After Yang, Sung Bum Na (OF) is easily my 2nd favorite bat on this team. He’s been absolutely on fire lately as he continues to play for an MLB contract next season. After Yang and Na, Suk-min Park (3B) and Aaron Altherr (OF) are next line for me here. Park has been great all season, and Altherr seems to be turning a corner after slumping for most of the month. I like Altherr much better on FanDuel as his DraftKings price still feels a bit too high, but he’s solid on both sites – and even better if he moves back up in the batting order. After what I’ll call my “Big 4” here, I like Jin-Sung Kang (OF) as lower-owned outfield play if he’s starting.  Myung-Gi Lee (3B) and Min-woo Park (2B) both appeal to me here IF they’re hitting at the top of the order. Jin-Hyuk No (SS) is viable shortstop option if he makes the line-up. There are a lot of moving parts here so be sure whoever you select for this stack is indeed starting. Yang has been a killer when he’s in, but he’s sitting more often than not lately. They aren’t the lock for us they have been for much of this week, but the upside is definitely there.

Also Consider: Kiwoom Heroes, Lotte Giants, Hanwha Eagles

DraftKings Cash Core
SP – Mike Wright (NCD) $8,900
SP2 – Won-Tae Choi (KIW) $9,100
1B/2B- Joo-hwan Choi (DOO) $2,300
SS – Jeong Choi (SKW) $4,600
OF –  Eui-yoon Jeong (SKW) $2,700
OF – Sung-Bum Na (NCD) $4,800

FanDuel Cash Core
SP – LG Starting P (NC) $22
IF –  Eui-ji Yang (NCD) $14
IF – Kyoung-min Hur (DOO) $8
OF – Sung-Bum Na (NCD) $16
OF –  Eui-yoon Jeong (SKW) $7

Top Value Plays on DraftKings (no particular order):
1B/2B- Joo-hwan Choi (DOO) $2,300
3B – Kyoung-min Hur (DOO) $2,600
2B/SS- Jin-hyuk No (NCD) $3,100
OF –  Ah-seop Son (LOT) $3,700
OF – Kun-woo Park (DOO) $3,800

Top Value Plays on FanDuel (no particular order):
OF – Jared Hoying (HAN) $1
IF – Jin-hyuk No (NCD) $9
OF –  Eui-yoon Jeong (SKW) $7
IF – Jamie Romak (SKW) $11
OF – Ji-hoon Choi (SKW) $6

BONUS BEST BETS:     (33-22)
Doosan vs. Lotte Giants OVER 10.5 Runs
SK Wyverns ML -160
NC Dinos RL -1.5 (-125)

Nick Marro is a DailyPlayAction MLB expert and MLB Team Lead. He shares his player research/projections for KBO on DraftKings and FanDuel. Nick plays on both sites himself, and although he expresses his opinions, he may implement other plays and strategies without notice. Follow him on Twitter @NickMarroDFS.