The Daily Diamond – 6.10 – Free KBO Slate Breakdown – FanDuel and DraftKings

184

Hey Playmakers!!! Nick Marro here with my KBO Breakdown for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Until the MLB returns, my focus will be on the Korean Baseball League. In addition to my Core-5 for each site, I’ve also provided you with my top Pitchers and Stacks for tonight/today’s slate which locks at 5:30 AM EST on FanDuel and DraftKings.

It’s been a while since we’ve had any Baseball DFS, so it’s important to remember the following. Stacks win tournaments, there’s a ton of variability, and variance can be your friend as ownership is often correlated to the lines/odds in Vegas. I recommend starting any line-up with a hitter stack and then building from there. We don’t yet have the quality Sabermetrics we do for the MLB, so we’re stuck relying on some older metrics in some cases. Regardless, it’s going to take some time to get used to this new league. The slate locks at 5:30 AM EST on FanDuel and DraftKings, so set an alarm if you’re playing for a lot of money and make sure your guys are in the line-up. If you have a recommendation for what you’d like to see in this article, just let me know!!!

SLATE NOTE: The (SK @ LG) as well has the (KIA @ KTW) games both have rain in their respective forecasts around 35%. Be sure to keep an eye on the weather for each prior to lock at 5:30 AM EST.

Top Pitchers
Eric Jokisch/Kiwoom Starting P ($9,700/$25): We do have some better options at Pitcher tonight, and Eric Jokisch is my favorite of them all. Through 6 GS this season, he’s carrying an impressive 2.37 FIP to go along with a very solid 7.43 K/9. The Samsung Lions have been hitting better of late, but they’re still in the bottom half of this league in terms of raw offensive upside. The price on him is reasonable on both sites. He’s my favorite option on the slate.

Min-Ho Lee/LG Starting P ($5,800/$24): The 19-year-old Lee is finally stretched out enough to start regularly. He’s coming off an impressive 7 IP 7 K performance in which he allowed 2 ER against Samsung. His K metrics don’t exactly jump off the page, but he’s simply too cheap here (especially on DraftKings) in a cake match-up against the SK Wyverns. There is some risk in rostering him as he is only 19 and we don’t have a very large sample size on him yet, statistically. Still, I’m happy to take some shots on this slate as a means to pay up for bats.

Aaron Brooks/Kia Starting P ($8,900/$25): It’s a tough match-up here tonight for Brooks, but he’s been excellent this season – so I’m more than happy to go back to him here. Through 6 GS, Brooks has an impressive 3.28 FIP to go along with a solid 7.47 K/9. He seems to give up a run or two each start, but his ability to pitch deep into games combined with his solid K upside makes him a valuable option even in tough match-ups. He’s not a top priority for me here tonight, but I’m happy to get to him everywhere.

Drew Rucinski/NC Starting P ($10,200/$25): As always, it’s tough to back a Pitcher against Doosan – but I’m fine to land on Rucinski here considering how good he’s been this season. He comes into this start with a 3.08 FIP and a slate best 8.92 K/9. Obviously there’s a chance the Bears get to him here – but if they don’t, he’s likely to hit an upside at low ownership given his match-up and price. He’s more affordable on FanDuel, but I’m fine getting to him on either site tonight as a GPP ownership pivot off a chalkier Eric Jokisch.

Also Consider
: Kyeung Eun-Noh/Lotte Starting P

Top Stacks (and who I’m targeting):
Note: Just like in MLB DFS, stacking is extremely important. Since the KBO has far fewer HRs than the MLB, ‘small ball’ can be your friend. Your one-off plays should either be excellent value – or guys with raw power (or stolen base) potential. Try your best to stack and double-stack using the following teams. From there feel free to use one-offs.

Kiwoom Heroes (KIW): Tonight, the Heroes are set to square off against Jung-hyun Baek – one of the worst pitchers in the KBO. Through his first three starts, Baek has somehow managed to allow 16 ER across only 14 IP to start his season. He’s carrying a terrible 7.94 FIP into tonight, and all signs point to him struggling again here.  Byung-Ho Park (1B) is once again one of my favorite bats on the slate.  It seems he has finally turned a corner after coming out ice cold to start the season. He’s my favorite piece of any Kiwoom stack given his price (especially on FanDuel), but after that I’m excited to get some exposure to Jung-Hoo Lee (OF) and Dong-won Park (C).  Lee is expensive, but both of these guys have an OPS over 1.000 on the season, and both have multi-HR upside – which is extremely rare in this league.  Ha-Seong Kim (SS) is another quality option here if you can afford the hefty price on him.  Keon-Chang Seo (OF) and Taek-Keun Lee (OF) are both serviceable OF options if you’re looking for value to make things fit. Neither has the upside of the expensive Kim, but point-per-dollar they’re quality options. If you’re digging for additional value, I’m fine with Hye-Sung Kim (2B/SS) or Joon-Tae Park (OF). Just be sure they’re in the line-up prior to lock. These guys have let us down a few times already this season, but the spot here feels too good to pass on here. I’ll have a lot on both sites.

NC Dinos (NCD): Raul Alcantara has been decent this season, but he allowed 5 ER in his last start against KT and he’s just not the type of pitcher I’m going to fear against a potent line-up. The Dinos have been on an absolute tear and oddsmakers are in agreement with me backing them here as they’re giving them a healthy 6.75 Implied Team Total in this spot. After Alcantara, this Doosan bullpen is terrible. So Runs are going to come, it’s just a matter of when. As is often the case Eui-Ji Yang (C) and Sung Bum Na (OF) are the top options to own on this team.  Na already has 10 HR on the season, and Eu-ji Yang has a ridiculous 90.5% Contact rate this season. Both of these guys are expensive, but they’re worth prioritizing if you can afford them. After Yang and Na, Suk-min Park (3B) and Jin-Sung Kang (OF/1B) are my other main targets. They both come in reasonably priced on both sites with excellent upside in their own right. Fifth (and perhaps even higher if you’re chasing upside) Aaron Altherr (OF) is a quality play. I don’t like how low he’s been hitting in this batting order, but he’s starting to see the ball well after a several week slump. Myung-Gi Lee (3B) and Min-woo Park (2B) both appeal to me here IF they’re hitting at the top of the order. Jin-Hyuk No (SS) is viable shortstop option if he makes the line-up. There are a lot of moving parts here so be sure whoever you select for this stack is indeed starting.

Lotte Giants (LOT):  Min-Woo Kim is pitching for Hanwha tonight, and he’s due for some major regression. His 4.28 ERA on the season is mostly a mirage, as is evident by his shaky 5.47 FIP. Additionally, his .244 BABIP against suggests he’s been extremely lucky as he had a .325 BABIP across the entirety of 2019. He already hasn’t been great, but he’s going to be worst. I expect the Lotte Giants to expose him here.   My favorite bat from this stack tonight is Dae-Hoe Lee (1B). Three of Lee’s 4 HRs on the season have come across his last 7 games. Given his upside in this spot, he’s far too cheap on both sites. He has a .931 OPS on the season, even after struggling across the first several weeks.  After Lee, I’m likely to be heavy on a streaking Ah-Seop Son (OF) who seems to reach base almost every AB. He has that rare power/speed combo we love for DFS and fantasy purposes. Power-hitting Jun-Woo Jeon (OF) has yet to really get going in 2020, but I expect he turns a corner soon. I’m fine with him here as well. Dixon Machado (2B/SS) is a fine option, but if he’s batting 8th or 9th again here I’d have trouble paying his DK price. Regardless, his upside is as good as anyone’s on this slate. Chi-Hong An (2B) and Dong-Hee Han (2B/3B) are affordable on both sites and should serve as secondary options once you load up on Jeon, Son, Lee, and Machado (if he’s in the middle/top of the order). If An is batting 3rd again tonight, he’s one of the better value plays on the entire slate.

Also Consider: KIA Tigers, LG Twins

DraftKings Cash Core
SP – Eric Jokisch (KIW) $9,700
SP2 – Min-Ho Lee (LGT) $5,800
1B – Dae-Ho Lee (LOT) $3,900
SS–  Ha-Seong Kim (KIW) $6,200
1B/OF – Jin-sung Kang (NCD) $4,000
OF – Ah-Seop Song (LOT) $3,500

FanDuel Cash Core
SP – Kiwoom Starting P (KIW) $25
IF –  Byung-Ho Park (KIW) $12
IF – Dae-Ho Lee (LOT) $10
OF – Myung-Gi Lee (NCD) $9
OF –  Ho-Ryung Kim (KIA) $8

Top Value Plays on DraftKings (no particular order):
2B/SS -Dixon Machado (LOT) $4,000
OF – Ah-Seop Song (LOT) $3,500
OF –  Ho ryung Kim (KIA) $3,600
2B/SS – Jin-hyuk No (NCD) $3,500
OF – Myung-Gi Lee (NCD) $2,800

Top Value Plays on FanDuel (no particular order):
IF – Jin-hyuk No (NCD) $9
IF – Tyler Saladino (SAM) $8
IF – Dong-Won Park (KIW) $10
OF – Ho-ryeong Kim (KIA) $8
OF – Myung-gi Lee (NCD) $9

BONUS BEST BETS:     (43-30)
Kiwoom Heroes RL -1.5 (-150)
NC Dinos RL -1.5 (+100)
LG Twins ML -160

Nick Marro is a DailyPlayAction MLB expert and MLB Team Lead. He shares his player research/projections for KBO on DraftKings and FanDuel. Nick plays on both sites himself, and although he expresses his opinions, he may implement other plays and strategies without notice. Follow him on Twitter @NickMarroDFS.