The Daily Diamond – 7.2 – Free KBO Slate Breakdown – FanDuel and DraftKings

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Hey Playmakers!!! Nick Marro here with my KBO Breakdown for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Until the MLB returns, my focus will be on the Korean Baseball League. In addition to my Core-5 for each site, I’ve also provided you with my top Pitchers and Stacks for tonight/today’s slate which locks at 5:30 AM EST on DraftKings and  FanDuel.

It’s been a while since we’ve had any Baseball DFS, so it’s important to remember the following. Stacks win tournaments, there’s a ton of variability, and variance can be your friend as ownership is often correlated to the lines/odds in Vegas. I recommend starting any line-up with a hitter stack and then building from there. We don’t yet have the quality Sabermetrics we do for the MLB, so we’re stuck relying on some older metrics in some cases. Regardless, it’s going to take some time to get used to this new league. The slate locks at 5:30 AM EST on both sites, so set an alarm if you’re playing for a lot of money and make sure your guys are in the line-up. If you have a recommendation for what you’d like to see in this article, just let me know!!!

Top Pitchers
Tae-In Won/Samsung Starting P ($7,700/$22): Won’s 4.64 FIP is certainly cause for some concern, but I’m happy to turn to him here in this match-up with the SK Wyverns. Won’s numbers are a bit inflated as 11 of his 18 ERs came across just two starts on the Road against tough line-ups in KIA and KTW. He’s been excellent pitching at Home this season, and tonight oddsmakers are giving SK a slate low 3.7 Implied Team Total. He comes with some risk, but he seems to be improving every start and in this particular match-up he’s a total bargain on both sites. He’s one of my preferred options on this slate.

Warwick Saupold/Hanwha Starting P ($8,500/$23): After struggling earlier on this season, Saupold finally seems to be finding good form. He has Won each of his last three starts, lowering his FIP to a healthy 3.53 in the process. His 5.74 K/9 is nothing to get too excited about, but he’s coming off back to back 6+ K outings against two of the league’s best hitting teams in NC and KTW. KIA hash only scored 4 Runs across their last 4 games. It’s always a bit dicey rostering this guy, but I’ll be on him heavily tonight.

Jong Gi-Park/Doosan Starting P ($7,300/$21): Park has been solid for Doosan since he joined the rotation. He comes into his 4th start of the season here with a quality 3.55 FIP and a serviceable 7.31 K/9. He’s starting to pitch deeper into games, which is a good sign for his upside moving forward. Kiwoom does have a lot of power towards the top of their order, but they’re also striking out as much as any other team in the league. It comes with some risk as we haven’t really seen that much of this kid yet, but I like his upside in this spot, especially at this discounted price. He’s especially appealing in GPPs as Kiwoom’s high Implied total should garner them significant ownership.

Also Consider: Dan Straily/Lotte Starting P, Min-Woo Lee/Kia Starting P

Top Stacks (and who I’m targeting):
Note: Just like in MLB DFS, stacking is extremely important. Since the KBO has far fewer HRs than the MLB, ‘small ball’ can be your friend. Your one-off plays should either be excellent value – or guys with raw power (or stolen base) potential. Try your best to stack and double-stack using the following teams. From there feel free to use one-offs.

Doosan Bears (DOO):  Doosan bats have been hot lately. I’m more than happy to get on them again here tonight as they’re set to square off against Kiwoom’s worst Starting Pitcher in Young-Gun Jo. Jo has a terrible 7.7 FIP coming into this start. He barely misses bats, and he’s allowing 1.96 HR/9. He’s unlikely to pitch deep into this game, but Kiwoom’s bullpen was utilized heavily last night so I’d be fine stacking against them here as well. No surprise here, Jose Fernandez (1B) is the top bat to own on this team. His price is climbing, but he continuously produces as one of the best hitters in this league. He’s coming off a 5 Hit performance last night and has very evidently gotten over the slump he was enduring last week. He’s a top priority for me everywhere tonight. After Fernandez, Jae-Hwan Kim (OF) and Jae-Il Oh (1B) are both finally healthy. After Fernandez these are the highest upside bats on this team. Oh is far too cheap on DraftKings, but I’m happy to prioritize either or both of these guys wherever I can afford them . Joo-Hwan Choi (1B/2B) is still too cheap on DraftKings with a potent bat in his own right. I’m fine getting to him on FanDuel as well. Kyoung-Min Hur (3B) is still too cheap given his new everyday role. I like him everywhere. Kun-woo Park (OF) and Soo-Bin Jung (OF) are solid plays here as well and both worth targeting. I prefer whoever (of the two) is hitting higher up in the batting order. If Jae-Won Oh (2B) or Jae-Ho Kim (SS) make the line-up they’ll excellent value options near minimum price. There’s really no wrong way to go when stacking this team. If a guy is in the Starting line-up for DOO, he’s in consideration for me everywhere. If you go this route it’s probably going to be worth waking up early and checking the line-ups. Catcher Se-Hyuk Park (C) is also viable everywhere if you need to fill that position on DK.  The Kiwoom bullpen can be tricky, but I’ll bank on their fatigue and a terrible SP here.

LG Twins (LGT): Byung-Wook Jo’s FIP sits more than a full point higher than his ERA at 4.88. He’s looked decent so far this season, but he hasn’t faced a line-up near as good as LG’s yet. I expect regression to hit him hard here and if/when it does, LG will have the benefit of facing one of the league’s worst bullpens.  Roberto Ramos (1B) has been extremely cold since returning from an ankle injury, but I expect him to turn things around sooner rather than later. He leads the KBO in HRs, and even though he’s been struggling, his upside on this slate is as good as anyone’s.  I’m not sure I’d pay the price for him in Cash, but he’s one of my preferred GPP plays on this slate. After Ramos, Hyun-Soo Kim (OF) and Chun-Woong Lee (OF) are my top priorities at the top of this order. Kim is expensive, but both of these guys have been tearing the cover off the ball. The price on Chung-Woong Lee is so low that it makes him a borderline Core play on DraftKings. He doesn’t really have a ton of power, but point-per dollar he’s as good as anyone on this team. Another guy that’s just way too cheap, especially on DraftKings is Eun-sung Chae (OF). He’s shown quality upside so far this season and he’s still reasonably priced everywhere. I’d round out LGT stacks with Keun-Woo Jeong (2B), and Catcher Kang Nam Yoo (C) as they’re both priced favorably. Yoo has been on fire of late and remains a bit underpriced everywhere. Chang gi-Hong (OF) and Ji-Hwan Oh (SS) would both make nice value options on both sites but there’s no guarantee they crack the line-up. Oh had three hits last night so as long as he’s in there I’d be happy making him a priority.

KT Wiz (KTW):  Casey Kelly is going to get some love tonight, but I’d rather be on the other side of his ownership. KT has been hitting as well as any team in the league, and Kelly seemed to struggle for the entire month of June. He allowed 3+ ER in 4 of his 5 June starts and I fully expect him to struggle again here. They’re a better GPP option as Kelly does have good enough stuff to twirl the occasional gem, but I expect these guys to far exceed the 4.2 Implied Total oddsmakers have tagged them with in this spot. If this plays out in our favor, we’d gain nice leverage over a field that seems likely to be on Kelly. KTW has a lot of upside in their line-up starting with monster bats like Mel Rojas Jr. (OF), Baek-Ho Kang (1B/OF) and Jae-Gyn Hwang (3B). Any stack I build of KTW will start with all three of these guys. All three have true multi-HR potential. Rojas and Kang’s ISOs both sit over .300 and Hwang is easily the hottest bat in the KBO over the last week. He has extra base hits in 4 straight games including HRs in 3 of his last for. Kyung-Soo Park (2B) and Jeong-Dae Bae (OF) comprise a second-tier of KTW bats I’m targeting. Both of these guys are far too cheap given their upside if this stack goes off. If I need additional value here I’m targeting Han-Joon Yoo (1B) and Woo-jun Sim (SS), who should both be in the line-up and affordable on both sites. Secondary value targets here include Catcher Sung-Woo Jang (C) at the bottom of this order. I don’t expect these Wiz to be as chalky as some of the other options we have on this slate, but their upside is exceptional if they can get to Kelly early.

Also Consider:
Kiwoom Heroes, Samsung Lions

DraftKings Cash Core
SP – Tae-In Won (SAM) $7,700
SP2 – Warwick Saupold (HAN) $8,500
1B/2B – Jose Fernandez (DOO) $6,000
1B/2B – Joo-Hwan Choi (DOO) $3,300
OF – Jeong-Dae Bae (KTW) $2,700
OF – Chun-Woo Lee (LGT) $3,300

FanDuel Cash Core
SP – Samsung Starting P (SAM) $22
IF – Jose Fernandez (DOO) $17
IF – Jae-Gyun Hwang (KTW) $11
OF – Hyun-Soo Kim (LGT)
OF – Chun-Woo Lee (LGT) $8

Top Value Plays on DraftKings (no particular order):
1B – Jae-Il Oh (DOO) $4,100
OF – Eun-Sung Chae (LGT) $3,200
OF – Hee-Dong Kwon (NCD) $2,500
OF – Jeong-Dae Bae (KTW) $2,700
OF – Chun-Woo Lee (LGT) $3,300

Top Value Plays on FanDuel (no particular order):
IF – Dae-Ho Lee (LOT) $10
IF – Min-Sung Kim (LGT) $8
IF – Dong-Won Park (KIW) $9
OF – Don-Yeop Kim (SAM) $8
OF – Chun-Woo Lee (LGT) $8

BONUS BEST BETS:     (62-45)
Samsung Lions RL -1.5 (+105)
Doosan Bears ML -135
KT Wiz @ LG Twins OVER 9.5 (-120)

Nick Marro is a DailyPlayAction MLB expert and MLB Team Lead. He shares his player research/projections for KBO on DraftKings and FanDuel. Nick plays on both sites himself, and although he expresses his opinions, he may implement other plays and strategies without notice. Follow him on Twitter @NickMarroDFS.