Welcome to the Tuesday, May 21st edition of the Stack Report. We have 14 games on the board tonight, so I’ve done my best to isolate only the best stack’s for this MLB DFS Slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s jump into the stacks.
vs. Dylan Covey (CWS): 5.90 Runs
Dylan Covey’s days as an MLB starter may be numbered. His 7.51 xFIP suggests MAJOR Regression is coming and his current 4.41 ERA is far more a reflection of luck, than it is of any real ability. His current BABIP of .173 is FAR below the league average and is likely to dramatically inflate over his next few starts. Tonight should be a big conduit to that, when he faces one of the best line-ups in baseball. These Astros are missing some key contributors, but as a result that means there is more value available. And thus, they are easier to stack. With George Springer side-lined, Josh Reddick figures to once again feature as the lead-off hitter. He’s an excellent way to start any Astros stack as he’s priced reasonably, and Covey has had serious struggles with LHH (.420 wOBA against in 2019). After Reddick, you can’t go wrong in selecting any of their “heavy hitters.” Bregman, Brantley, and Correa all profile extremely well here. Brantley may be my favorite of the group as he’s a lefty, like Reddick, and slightly cheaper than the other “big” bats. I’d do my best to grab one of two of these higher priced guys, and then jump on Yuli Gurriel and/or Aldemyz Diaz for additional salary relief. If you are really scraping for value, Tony Kemp and Jason Marisnick also make sense if you want to implement a “wrap-around” stack. There are plenty of ways you can go here.
vs. Tommy Milone (SEA): 6.05 Runs
Whenever a 32 year-old pitcher starts a season in AAA, it usually means they aren’t very good. Tonight, the Rangers’ have a date with the Mariners’ Tommy Milone. This will be Milone’s first MLB start of the season as they elect to demote the struggling Erik Swanson in his favor. In 2018, Milone only appeared in 5 MLB games, during which he allowed 17 ER across just 26.1 Innings for the Nationals. His AAA numbers this season have not been much better. He has allowed 21 ER and 49 Hits through 49 Innings pitched in AAA. These numbers aren’t great, and they come against far worse competition than this Rangers line-up will present this evening. If we look at Milone’s numbers from 2017-2018, it’s easy to recognize his struggles with RHH (.297 ISO and .445 wOBA vs. righties). He’s not great against lefties either, but I’m prioritizing the right-handed bats in an effort to maximize this popular stack’s potential. Hunter Pence and Logan Forsythe are both righties with ISOs north of .200 this season. I consider them both to be priorities here. After those two – I like the switch-hitters, Asdrubal Cabrera and Danny Santana. The Rangers’ feature a lot of LHH – so I’m more than comfortable getting to Roughned Odor or Joey Gallo (especially Gallo) as means to complete the stack. Both have shown tremendous power this season and could easily do work here against Milone and/or the M’s bullpen. I don’t think you can really go wrong in this spot – but keep an eye on the line-up and get as many righties in as possible.
New York Yankees
vs. David Hess (BAL): 5.90 Runs
Tonight, David Hess will be facing the Yankees for the fourth time of the young season. He faced them in his last start on 5/15 and allowed 4 HRs and 5 Runs across 6 innings pitched. Hess has been bad against both lefties and righties this season, but his numbers against righties are truly abysmal. He’s allowing a ridiculous .402 ISO to RHH across 105 Plate Appearances. He’s essentially throwing batting practice. Balls hit by righties off Hess are averaging 250 feet of distance, and the Yankees best hitters just so happen to be righties. Gleyber Torres hit 2 Home Runs against Hess his last time out. He’s my favorite play of them all here, he’s been on absolute fire lately. Gary Sanchez and Luke Voit are also major power threats against RHP, both are worthy of consideration and make plenty of sense wherever you can afford them. If I’m looking for value, I prefer Gio Urshela over the other low-priced options. He can take advantage of Hess’ reverse splits, and I expect he comes in as one of the lowest owned Yankees on this slate. If I’m going after a hitter from the left site of the plate, the switch-hitting Aaron Hicks is viable as well.
Boston Red Sox
Hitters to target: Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
Hitters to target: D. Vogelbach, M. Haniger, E. Encarcion, J. Bruce, T. Beckham
Los Angeles Angels
Hitters to target: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Tommy LaStella, Brian Goodwin
Nick Marro is a DailyPlayAction MLB expert and MLB Team Lead. He shares his player research/projections for MLB on DraftKings and FanDuel. Nick plays on both sites himself, and although he expresses his opinions, he may implement other plays and strategies without notice. Follow him on Twitter @NickMarroDFS.