The Stack Report – Week 1 Main Slate – NFL DFS

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Hello everyone! Welcome to Week 1 NFL main slate Stacks Report for NFL DFS contests. My name is CD Hill (@cdhill81 on Twitter), and as DPA’s newest DFS analyst, I will be focusing on the best positional correlations concerning DFS scoring. There are a few factors that concentrate on this particular strategy and that’s what this article will get into. So, with that said, best of luck in all of the contests you enter on Sunday and let’s get to it!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB | Jameis Winston & WR | Mike Evans & WR | Chris Godwin

Overall, this is looking to be one of the best bangs for your buck when considering any stack for the week, particularly any three players from the same squad. Jameis Winston (money wise, top-tier pick on DraftKings but mid-tier on FanDuel) should have no problem feeding Mike Evans and Chris Godwin the ball through the air on Sunday against a 49ers defense that had a lot of trouble creating turnovers last year (they had the FEWEST in NFL HISTORY in 2018/2019). San Francisco’s secondary played a huge role in this problem, and they’re essentially coming back with the same group of misfit toys as they fielded in Week 1 of last season. The Bucs offense looks primed to finish with 300+ passing yards, at least 3 touchdown strikes (Winston isn’t a lock to do well due to his volatile nature but the upside and ideal matchup are hard to pass up) and both of the receivers mentioned here finishing with at least 100 receiving yards and one touchdown reception a piece. With that said, Evans is expected to have the bigger game between the two of them, but Godwin is the much cheaper buy. Tampa Bay’s tight end, O.J. Howard, was also in consideration here, but he was left out because of the amount of mouths to feed and depth at the TE position across the DFS industry that can be used instead (Evan Engram; Hunter Henry).

Carolina Panthers

QB | Cam Newton & RB | Christian McCaffrey

Cam Newton (foot) looks to be fully recovered now from the injury he sustained in the preseason. That means he can now go back to being a serious DFS weapon, and one that looks to become more and more like his former MVP-self again from a few seasons prior. He was looking like a stud as the year wore on last season right before his season-ending shoulder injury occurred. After all, last season, Newton completed a career-high 67.5 percent of his passes, had a 94.2 Passer Rating (he hasn’t been 90+ since 2015) and threw for 24 touchdowns in only 14 games (his most passing TDs since 2015). Those results show that the hiring of offensive coordinator, Norv Turner, last season looks to be working in Newton’s favor since he’s arguably showing more consistency at the QB position than ever before in his career. Christian McCaffrey is the other potent DFS weapon to go with here because he’s not only a solid rushing ‘back, but also a top-notch receiving ‘back, too, so stacking him with Carolina’s gunslinger seems like a no-brainer in Week 1 if you don’t mind spending up for them. Now, while the Rams secondary and key pass rusher (sack artist, Aaron Donald) are a decent bet to give Carolina some headaches in their contest this week, Newton and McCaffrey, especially, should be primed for shootout potential against a dangerous and well-rounded Rams offense. Both of these teams project to play with the highest pace on the entire slate, so both offenses should be near the top of the league in total offensive snaps in Week 1 – this signals more opportunity for each offense. McCaffrey will see added value as he will tee off against a defense ranked as the second worst in the league against opposing running backs last year (PFF).

Seattle Seahawks

QB | Russell Wilson, WR | Tyler Lockett & RB | Chris Carson

Here are safe plays that you should really give a strong look at in Week 1. These three, Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett and Chris Carson, all have doable to very doable price tags and ownership percentages. In addition to that, the Seahawks’ offense is expected to score a lot against a putrid Bengals defense this week and a BIG chunk of Seattle’s offense revolves around these three players. Wilson has potential to finish with multiple TDs and at least 300 passing yards while Lockett is projected to go off for 20+ DraftKings points and close to 20 FanDuel points now that he’s clearly Wilson’s favorite go-to receiver after coming off of a stellar 10-TD reception season and almost 1,000 receiving yards (965) in 2018/2019. Finally, Chris Carson looks like a force in Seattle’s running game now and he gets to continue from where he left off last year in where he ended up with an underrated 1,151 rushing yards and nine TD rushes. It should also be noted that the Seahawks ran the ball more than any other team last season, and are currently nearly 10 point home favorites against Cincy (an ideal spot for a RB). He’s also showing pass-catching ability that he didn’t show last season and it’s been showing up recently in camp and that should help solidify Seattle’s offense on Sunday.

Kansas City Chiefs

QB | Patrick Mahomes & TE | Travis Kelce

When you finish with the kind of numbers Patrick Mahomes just put up last season (he had a phenomenal 113.8 passing rating, 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdown passes in the regular season of his SECOND year in the NFL), one can only wonder what kind of stats he’ll finish with this season now that he’s a more polished player. Travis Kelce also finished with some monster numbers of his own (103 receptions, 1,336 receiving yards and 10 touchdown) and looks to be the best tight end in all of football now. It’s clear that these two will be popular DFS picks on Sunday and will cost you a pretty penny to own, but they shouldn’t be passed up on simply due to that reality. Their proven upside always makes for an intriguing play, and the Chiefs face a Jaguars defense this week that they torched for 30 points back in October, so they should be ready to go without much of a slow down in the process from Jacksonville. Sure, the Jags defense is very good against opposing wide receivers but Kelce is a different beast of a pass catcher who had his way with them last year to the tune of eight catches for 100 yards, so Mahomes should once again be looking in his direction early and often.

Honorable Mentions / GPP Stacks:

(Cash) Philadelphia Eagles: QB | Carson Wentz & TE | Zach Ertz

(Cash/GPP) Los Angeles Rams: QB | Jared Goff & RB | Todd Gurley

(GPP) Detroit Lions: QB | Matthew Stafford, WR | Kenny Golladay & WR | Marvin Jones Jr.

(GPP) Buffalo Bills: QB | Josh Allen & WR | John Brown

Thank you very much for taking the time to catch up on NFL Week 1 with DPA. Premium members, please take note that a Slack Q+A follow up for Sunday’s NFL Week 1 main slate will take place at 8:00PM EST on Saturday night. To test out DPA Premium, head on over to our sign up page at dailyplayaction.com and start your free 30 day trial where you will get access to all of our VIP content, including access to slack! Don’t forget to follow us on twitter as well at @dailyplayaction and @cdhill81 where you can find the most updated info and analysis on all NFL DFS developments.