The Stack Report – Week 15 Main Slate – NFL DFS

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Welcome to Week 15 edition of NFL Main Slate Stack Report for NFL Daily Fantasy Sports Contests. My name is CD Hill (@cdhill81 on Twitter), and as one of DPA’s NFL Gurus, I will once again make it my job to stress the importance of correlation in your GPP rosters this weekend. As I said last week, there are a few factors that spotlight this particular strategy and that’s what this write-up concentrates on. Now that you have an understanding of what to expect in this article, best of luck this Sunday winning some green in whatever contests you join, and let’s get down to business!

Note: This is just a heads up. Keep an eye on all of the players listed as Questionable (Q) in this article. Only consider going with that player if he’s listed as a starter before kickoff this Sunday.

Cleveland Browns

QB | Baker Mayfield with WR | Jarvis Landry (Q)

Needless to say, last week was another disappointing performance for Baker Mayfield (192 passing yards, zero TDs and two INTs) in his 27-19 win over the Bengals, but this week is shaping up to be a good spot for him. He faces a Cardinals team that gives up the most passing yards and passing TDs to QBs this season. This is the kind of cake matchup Mayfield needs to finish out the year strong. His favorite target, Jarvis Landry (hip), should once again be a very active part of his team’s offensive game plan since fellow Browns starting wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (groin) is listed as Questionable. While Beckham isn’t expected to miss his contest this Sunday, he has shown a desire to no longer want to play for Cleveland after this season. That might push Beckham to play some uninspiring football or could, worse yet, lead to him sitting out in Week 15. Not to mention a nagging abdomen injury that Beckham apparently has been nursing all season. On the other hand, Landry’s injury isn’t expected to hold him back in this game. The product of LSU has averaged 11.4 targets per contest, 7.2 receptions per game, and 87.4 receiving yards per contest in five out of his past seven games. Those are notable numbers, and there’s no reason to believe that he and Mayfield can’t potentially have season-best performances in this one. Landry should come in as a pretty popular DFS play right now, but Mayfield shouldn’t be a popular play on the other end of this stack. Both players’ price tags aren’t too bad either, and since both will have notable ceilings in this one, they make for formidable GPP plays and make for viable Cash game plays thanks to the juicy matchup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB | Jameis Winston (Q) with WR | Chris Godwin &

WR | Breshad Perriman or WR | Justin Watson

Jameis Winston continues to show a great floor and ceiling this year even though you know a potential INT or two (or more) are on the way. He goes up against a Detroit D in Week 15 that has the fewest INTs in the league this year (tied with one other defense). They’ve also given up the third most passing yards in the NFL this season (tied with four other defenses) and the sixth most passing touchdowns in the league this year. As mentioned in the NFL Playbook Cheat Sheet, Winston surprisingly has the 2nd highest odds on the slate to throw 2+ TDs at -227 while also leading QBs with the best odds to smash the 300 yard bonus (-233 favorite). When you add that to this week’s opponent being Detroit’s 25th ranked secondary, you have yourself a great play. Winston has a legit shot at leading the NFL in passing yards and TD passes, and the Lions shouldn’t be able to slow him down from doing his thing. Wideout Chris Godwin and his 81 catches, 1,212 receiving yards and nine TDs on the year is clearly his team’s top receiver now with fellow starting wide receiver Mike Evans (hamstring) now out for the season. We can expect him to be Winston’s top read, and should absorb a nice amount of Evans’ marketshare, despite already getting 8-10 targets per game. Godwin is a great play seeing as its unlikely Darius Slay will follow him into the slot. The less certain thing is guessing who will step it up as Tampa Bay’s WR2 on Sunday. Last week, it was between Perriman and Watson who stepped up in Evans’ place. Perriman had a 3-70-1 stat line against the Colts (he even had five catches for 87 yards the week before) while wideout Justin Watson had five receptions for 59 yards and a TD against Indianapolis. It’s anyone’s guess who will have the better game this week, but if you’re looking to save as much money as possible at WR, keep in mind that the cheaper receiver out of these two is Watson by a wide margin (especially on FanDuel). In the end, Winston and Godwin will cost you a pretty penny, and will be very popular plays this week in Cash games and GPPs. Pivoting from Godwin to either of the Bucs ancillary WRs make for strong correlation plays in tournaments this weekend.

Minnesota Vikings

RB | Dalvin Cook with | Minnesota Vikings D/ST

Dalvin Cook is scheduled to go up against a Chargers team that have a run funnel defense. With Alexander Mattison questionable, we can expect another healthy workload from Dalvin Cook. Cook is due for some positive regression in Week 15 after averaging only 15.5 DraftKings points and 13.5 FanDuel points in his past three contests. He currently averages over 20 FPPG, and Los Angeles (AFC) gives up the sixth most rushing TDs in the NFL this season (tied with six other teams) and are bottom 10 against the run in general. They gave up the most running back receiving yards in the league and the third most running back receiving TDs in the NFL last season (tied with nine other teams) and they have still shown some vulnerabilities to some sound pass catching RBs this year at times. Cook has been a a formidable receiving ‘back this year putting up at least 73 receiving yards in three games since Week 1. He’ll cost you a fortune to own this Sunday but his pOWN% isn’t expected to be high. The best route to take here in this Stack is to go with the Vikings D/ST with Cook. Minnesota’s D is just coming off of a 13 Fantasy-point game against the Lions, and continue to get plenty of sacks this season (five last week). They’ll be one of the more expensive D/STs to go with on this slate, but their projected ownership percentage shouldn’t be unbearable. Overall, this Stack makes for a very solid GPP pairing thanks to the upside presented.

Tennessee Titans

QB | Ryan Tannehill with WR | A.J. Brown

In six out of his last seven games this year, Ryan Tannehill has averaged a solid 300.8 passing + rushing yards per game, and equally as impressive, if not more so, 2.7 passing + rushing TDs per game. He goes up against a Texans defense in Week 15 that just gave up 32 points to a very weak Broncos team in Week 14, that is currently averaging the sixth least amount of points in the league. The Texans now give up the fifth most passing touchdowns in the league and the sixth most passing yards in the NFL, so the odds of him putting up quality Fantasy numbers this week are pretty high with all things considered. Speaking to that, Tannehill is a -216 favorite to throw 2+ TDs tomorrow, which is one of the best odds on the slate to do so. Tannehill’s top target should once again be WR A.J. Brown, who sported five catches for 153 yards and two touchdowns in Week 14 and four catches for 135 yards and one TD in Week 12. Brown has really turned into Tannehill’s go-to wide receiver in recent weeks and has seen an uptick in usage while still registering low ownership. Tannehill’s salary requirement still isn’t bad by any stretch of the imagination either on FanDuel since he’s still not one of the top-10 most expensive at the position. It’s a different story on DraftKings however, where he checks in as a top-5 most expensive QB on the main slate. Nevertheless, this Stack has appeal in both GPPs and Cash games this Sunday thanks to both players’ high ceilings and Tannehill’s safe floor.

Honorable Mentions / GPP Stacks

(Cash/GPP) San Francisco 49ers: QB | Jimmy Garoppolo with

TE | George Kittle

 New England Patriots: QB | Tom Brady with WR | Julian Edelman (Q,

this Stack should only be considered if Edelman is active)

(GPP) New York Giants: QB | Eli Manning with RB | Saquon Barkley &

WR | Darius Slayton

Miami Dolphins: QB | Ryan Fitzpatrick with WR | DeVante Parker (Q) &

WR | Isaiah Ford  (Ford gets boost if Parker is out but is viable either way)

Thank you very much for taking the time to catch up on NFL Week 15 with Daily Play Action. Premium members, please take note that a Slack Q+A follow up for Sunday’s NFL Week 15 Main Slate will take place at 11:00AM on Sunday morning. To test out DPA Premium, head on over to our sign up page at dailyplayaction.com and start your Free 14 Day Trial where you will get access to all of our VIP content, including access to our VIP Chat! Don’t forget to follow us on twitter as well at @dailyplayaction and @cdhill81 where you can find the most updated info and analysis on all NFL DFS developments.