Hey guys, welcome back to another edition of the Weekly Wedge. Unfortunately, this is going to be another condensed version of the featured PGA coverage brought to you by Daily Play Action. But we do have some key stats and plays for you guys, as always. So, let’s just dive right into this post-major, weak-field tournament at the 2018 Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, NC.
- Course History – a player’s performance history on a particular course
- DK Scoring – the amount of Draftkings points a player produces per tournament
- Birdie or Better % – the percent of time a score of birdie or better was made
- Proximity to Hole – the average distance a player’s ball comes to rest after an approach shot
- Scrambling – any shot from less 50 yards followed by one putt that produces a score of par or better
$10,000 and Above | Rafa Cabrera Bello | $10,100
Rafa is kind of one of those guys that when he gets hot, he starts playing extremely well from week-to-week. After cooling down for a bit, RCB has made three straight cuts now with two straight top-20 finishes and a top-10 last week at the PGA Championship. On top of his recent play, he also finished T5 here just a couple of years ago in 2016, so he definitely has somewhat of an eye for this course. He ranks 1st in the field in DK and scoring and 3rd in the field in total SG. His peripheral stats aren’t exactly eye-popping but their definitely not bad by any means; and as I was saying before, he’s one of those guys that kind of gets hot and cold as the season progresses that certainly doesn’t help his year long statistics. In a weak field like this week, Rafa is where I am going to start my cash lineup and should also be a pretty good GPP play, as well. Rafa has a serious chance to contend here at Wyndham, and I love him to make the cut and play throughout the weekend. The floor and the ceiling are both there for Cabrera Bello, and he comes at huge discount from Webb Simpson.
Pivots: Webb Simpson ($11,600) | Shane Lowry ($10,000)
$9,900 – $9,000 | Joaquin Niemann | $9,700
I mean, where do I start with this kid. He’s an extremely talented young player who has played extremely well since bursting onto the tour mid-season in 2018. He’s made five straight cuts now, including two top-25 finishes and a 5th place finish at Greenbrier. He ranks 6th in the field in total SG, 4th in SG: approach, 3rd in SG: off-the-tee and SG: tee-to-green, 2nd in DK Scoring, and 1st in SG: ball striking over the last 50 rounds. On the year, he ranks 2nd in both proximity and in BOB%. Obviously, we don’t have any course history for him – as this is his first year on tour – but I see no reason why this kid cant handle this course easily and even contend for his first win on tour. He should be a great play in both formats this week.
Pivots: Sergio Garcia ($9,200) | Ryan Moore ($9,000)
$8,900 – $8,000 | Harold Varner III | $8,900
Obviously, this dude has been ripping it up lately with a top-20, a top-10, and a top-5 finish over his last three starts and had a top-10 finish here last year. But, the main reason why I love Varner this weekend is he is sitting at 105 in the Fed Ex Cup Standings, and he’s definitely going to want to show up this week in order to really secure his spot in the playoffs come September. That’s really going to be a pretty underrated thing to look at over the next few weeks as the first round of the playoffs at TPC Boston is rapidly approaching. Over his last 24 rounds, Varner ranks 8th in the field in DK points, 7th in SG: approach, and 7th in total SG so it’s pretty obvious this guy is making a push and really wants to make sure he’s playing in the Deutsche Bank Championship this year. He will definitely going to carry some ownership, but there are a lot of reasons to play him this weekend and he should make for a great play wherever you can fit him in.
Pivots: Si Woo Kim ($8,800) | Graeme McDowell ($8,500)
$7,900 – $7,500 | Johnson Wagner | $7,500
This is a little bit of a gut call for me, but Wagner is also definitely checking a lot of boxes for me this week. On top of making 15/19 cuts on the year, he has made six straight cuts and has finished inside the top-35 in his last four starts. On top of having some great recent form, he also has some good course history here – finishing T5 and T24 in respective years here at the Wyndham Championship. Although his stats aren’t incredibly convincing, he’s ranked 10th in birdie to bogey ratio so he can definitely score while avoiding the big numbers. At $7,500, I think Wagner is a great pivot off of a guy like Chris Kirk who is going to carry some extremely high ownership going into the weekend. He may make it into my cash lineup, but I think he’s mainly going to serve as a great pivot in a GPP format.
Pivots: Abraham Ancer ($7,800) | Chris Kirk ($7,500)
$7,400 and Below | Bill Haas | $7,200
This is the one course horse that I am going to write up this week. Haas has extremely good course history here, making the cut in each of the last five years. During that span, he has two top-25 finishes, a top-10 finish, and a top-5 finish here. Although he plays very well here, he hasn’t been in the best form as of late so he will definitely be more of a GPP play that should give you both some salary relief and some ownership leverage. He’s also another one of those guys sitting in the 150-100 range in the the Fed Ex Cup Standings, so don’t be surprised if he shows up to play to try and sneak into the playoffs this year. Certainly, tread lightly with Mr. Haas this weekend, but he has a fantastic record here at this tournament so he could easily surprise some people and make a run towards the top-10.
Pivots: Robert Garrigus ($7,000) | Ricky Barnes ($6,800)