UFC Fight Night 170 – 3.14.2020 – Staff Predictions, Picks and Analysis (Free)


Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night 170. As a result of the virus shutting down nearly all major sports, we wanted to keep our audience fed with the quality content they deserve. We do not claim to be fully seasoned experts, but all have been avid fight fans for quite a while now. Our analysis on cards will include a pick for every fight from DPA Analysts Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. Write-ups will provide consideration for FanDuel and DraftKings lineups as well as predictions for how all fights will play out.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. If you are in search of a good website to tail any of our picks, I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses!

Fight odds are as listed via Bovada and last updated 12:00 PM EST 3-14-2020

*Fight Notes and Predictions are in the order they are scheduled to take place

Preliminary Card- Starts 3pm EST

Veronica Macedo -155 (DK $9100) vs Bea Malecki +125 (DK $7100)

  • Anthony: We begin the card here at bantamweight for a fight between the young Veronica Macedo and Bea Malecki who is 3-0 in the UFC. Macedo’s DraftKings price makes sense given her striking ability but I do not think she is going to have what it takes to survive three rounds with an opponent this much bigger than her. This feels like the wrong weight for her to try to make a name for herself in and I love the value on this underdog. I will be betting on this fight but would fade both on DraftKings. Bea Malecki by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Macedo might be the more talented and technical fighter, but Malecki’s size is going to be tough to overcome here. I like Malecki as the underdog. Bea Malecki by Decision
  • GB: Fairly lackluster fight all in all. Macedo is on a 3-fight losing streak so hopefully she comes out looking to win or her UFC career could be in jeopardy. Can’t see this finishing on either side but Macedo should get the decision. Veronica Macedo by Decision

Bruno Silva -115 (DK $8200) vs David Dvorak -115 (DK $8000)

  • Anthony: This match features Bruno Silva as a slight betting favorite in what is really a coinflip at flyweight. Both guys should be viable in your lineup as Silva will score some good points on the advance and takedown. David Dvorak enters with a much different strategy though, preferring to keep this on the feet as long as he can. He has the ability to win by submission or knockout and so I love him on DraftKings. This should be a short fight. David Dvorak by Round One KO
  • Nick: David Dvorak hasn’t really proven himself against stiff competition. His record has been heavily padded collecting Wins against mediocre Czech opponents. Still, Silva has not done enough to convince me he has any sort of edge here. This should be a close fight, but I see Dvorak scoring the win via choke. David Dvorak by Round Two Submission. Risky, but high upside play for DFS.
  • GB: Dvorak has won 13 straight, whereas Silva is a grinder who can finish out a fight. I suspect Dvorak gets him early and finishes him in the second round by punches. David Dvorak by Round Two KO

Mayra Bueno Silva -155 (DK $8500) vs Maryna Moroz +125 (DK $7700)

  • Anthony: This is the first fight that I think goes to decision on the card but that still is no guarantee. Flyweight Maryna Moroz is getting disrespected by oddsmakers and DraftKings pricing alike, but I still do not think that warrants enough value for a look. She is 4-3 in the UFC but is very vulnerable in the clinch. Bueno Silva could find herself in the position for an early submission, but I think instead she will keep control and score a lot of advances on the mat. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision
  • Nick: The move to American Top Team has really helped elevate Moroz. I see that momentum continuing here against an untested and seemingly overhyped Mayra Bueno Silva. It’ll go the distance, but I like the value on Moroz as an underdog. Maryna Moroz by Decision. She’s a decent value play on DK.
  • GB: Silva hasn’t fought since 2018, so I expect a lot of ring rust for her against a formidable opponent in Moroz. I expect this to go to a decision and it should be a snooze fest as neither fighter is special. Maryna Moroz by Decision

Enrique Barzola -200 (DK $8700) vs Rani Yahya +160 (DK $7500)

  • Anthony: This feels like one of the bigger traps on the card. Enrique Barzola has been very productive but drops to bantamweight here for a bout with Rani Yahya. The reason I am a bit worried is because if Yahya can get Barzola onto the ground he could very well dominate this fight. A sneaky reversal could mess up this play as well as Barzola also does not mind settling things on the mat. I will not bet this one. Yahya seems like good salary relief if you think he can win, but I do not. Enrique Barzola by Decision
  • Nick: Barzola drops down a weight class here and he barely had to cut. Yahya has the track record, but these are two guys whose careers are headed in different directions. Barzola has benefited from his time at American Top team. A strong camp with experienced training partners will be the reason he gets over here. Enrique Barzola by Decision. He feels a bit overpriced on DK.
  • GB: Yahya is an animal when it comes to the ground and specifically submitting opponents. He’s tapped 20 opponents in his career, and I think tonight he adds 21. He will need to get this fight to the ground to make this happen. Rani Yahya by Round Three Submission

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -135 (DK $8400, FD $16) vs Alexey Kunchenko +105 (DK $7800, FD $14)

  • Anthony: No matter how you slice it this should be an exciting fight. The pair of welterweights have impressive professional records and match up very well with one another. Alexey Kunchenko is coming of his first UFC loss to Gilbert Burns and gets another tough test here. This is a tough one to pick in terms of betting and I will be taking the favorite. However, both guys offer a ton of value on DraftKings. Zaleski dos Santos should land close to 70 significant strikes if this goes the distance. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by Decision
  • Nick: We have two fighters coming off losses in this one. Zaleski looked terrible against Li Jinglang and Kunchenko had to swallow his first loss against Maia’s opponent on this card, Gilbert Burns. It’s tough to get too excited about either of these guys, but I favor the value on Kunchenko as an underdog. Alexey Kunchenko by Third Round KO
  • GB: Zaleski has the ability to move with the best of them. His hip dexterity and speed allow him to avoid sticky situations, but I see Kunchenko getting the better side of this and ultimately winning the decision. Alexey Kunchenko by Decision

Amanda Ribas -400 (DK $9300, FD $20) vs Randa Markos +300 (DK $6900, FD $11)

  • Anthony: Amanda Ribas is the second most expensive fighter on the DraftKings card and for good reason. The young strawweight does not have to do a lot to win this fight and I think we get a pretty easy victory with her here. She has some submission talent and could end this one early if they get on the ground. However, I think standing and throwing high volume strikes is the best route to victory. Randa Markos has never won back-to-back fights in her career. Amanda Ribas by Decision
  • Nick: Markos is barely a .500 fighter with her record sitting at 10-7. Ribas is coming off to impressive Wins over Mackenzie Dern and Emily Whitmire. I expect Ribas to cruise here against the gatekeeper on her way to an easy Decision. The DFS price is ugly on both sites but she is one of the safer Ws. Amanda Ribas by Decision
  • GB: Ribas is exciting young blood in the strawweight division and I think Markos isn’t the slightest threat to her. I think Ribas wears her down and ultimately finishes her in the 3rd. Amanda Ribas by Round Three KO

Jussier Formiga -165 (DK $8800, FD $17) vs Brandon Moreno +135 (DK $7400, FD $14)

  • Anthony: The flyweight division is not too crowded now, but this is a fight between two huge contenders. Jussier Formiga is currently ranked third while Brandon Moreno sits at fifth. The victor here will likely have a title shot in their near future. Formiga is very old for this weight but still possesses the elite grappling he needs to win. I think while Moreno is never going to be an easy opponent, Formiga should have enough tools in his belt to take this fight to the mat and win on points. On DraftKings I would have Formiga in most of my builds. He should score a nice handful of advances. Jussier Formiga by Decision
  • Nick: Formiga’s last two fights were against two of the division’s Top contenders. He fell hard against Benavidez, but he’s far more proven and there’s a lot of value on him as an underdog here. Neither of these guys finish many fights. I expect it to go the distance but Formiga should find away.. There’s appeal to rostering Moreno at his price on both DK and FanDuel here, but Formiga is the better fighter. Jussier Formiga by Decision
  • GB: Moreno has too many tools on his belt to lose this fight, although Formiga is super well rounded. I believe Moreno tries to keep Formiga on his feet en route to a knockout victory at a discounted price, especially on DraftKings Brandon Moreno by First Round KO

Main Card- Starts 6pm EST

Francisco Trinaldo -165 (DK $8900, FD $18) vs John Makdessi +135 (DK $7300, FD $13)

  • Anthony: We open the main card here with a great battle at lightweight. The betting line for this contest has not moved much this week but I think there is a clear mismatch here. John Makdessi has won four decisions in a row, but I do not think he is skilled enough to win in this division. He is undersized and I doubt he will be able to wrestle with or out strike the more technically sound Trinaldo. I am not in love with either’s price on DraftKings but will be betting heavy on the favorite here. He can still get it done at 41 years of age. Francisco Trinaldo by Decision
  • Nick: Trinaldo is an aggressive fighter, and Makdessi generally likes to point guys to death. I think the styles here clash in favor of the Trinaldo. It’s unfortunate the crowd won’t be here to back him, but I think the Brazilian frustrates Makdessi early and eventually baits him into a late knockout. Francisco Trinaldo by Third Round KO. For DFS, I prefer his price on FanDuel.
  • GB: I’m torn here. Makdessi is a fun fighter to watch, and at any time I’m expecting Trinaldo to hang em up. It seems that every time Trinaldo fights it’s a war. He’s got an iron chin and Makdessi has immense KO power with great kicking ability. I see this being a very technical kickboxing match with plenty of points scored on each side. Francisco Trinaldo by Decision

Johnny Walker -145 (DK $8600, FD $17) vs Nikita Krylov +115 (DK $7600, FD $14)

  • Anthony: If you want a juicy play on DraftKings this is the fight for you. Oddsmakers say this fight will not complete a single round and I have to agree. Johnny Walker has a 4.5-inch reach advantage and should be able to beat up Krylov enough for an early win. He ranks tenth in the light heavyweight and I do not know if he has much room to climb, that is after seeing his last fight with Corey Anderson. However, as far as tonight’s match goes, he should deal a lot of damage early to Krylov. I do not think the Ukrainian will stay in the rankings for long. Johnny Walker by Round One KO
  • Nick: This is definitely one of the more exciting fights on this card. Walker took a step back in his last fight against Corey Anderson, but he made some obvious and correctable mistakes. Krylov played a defensive game against Glover Teixiera in his last fight, a strategy that hurts his chances here against a hyper-aggressive Walker. Both of these guys have knockout power. There’s no way I see this going the distance either way, but I’ll take Walker in the bounce-back with a KO late in the 1st. Johnny Walker by Round One KO. He’s one of my top DFS plays of the day at this price. I’ll have a lot of exposure on both sites.
  • GB: It seems that poor Krylov is a lamb to the slaughter in this matchup. Walker has immense power but has also shown to be a rushed fighter. That should settle as he’s also a newer member of Tristar gym. He’s in the best pay up spot of the night in my opinion for an easy knockout. Johnny Walker by Round One KO

Renato Moicano -400 (DK $9400, FD $19) vs Damir Hadžović +300 (DK $6800, FD $10)

  • Anthony: Renato Moicano is the biggest favorite on the card and should be able to win this with ease as he is far more skilled. It would be a solid win on points if Moicano wanted to just land his strikes and run a traditional Muay Thai approach. In my opinion fighting at lightweight is the best decision for Moicano down the stretch and given the clear grappling advantage I think we get a submission of Damir Hadžović once he has been hurt, most likely by rear-naked choke. Renato Moicano by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Moicano is coming off two KO losses, but it’s tough to knock him for them considering they came against Jose Aldo and the Korean Zombie AND in a higher weight class. Moicano should be better off here without having to make a dramatic weight cut. There’s not much value on him at this price, but he should find a win. Renato Moicano by Round Three Submission. He’s expensive on DK and FanDuel, but if you get to him he has finishing potential.
  • GB: Moicano has been dominant because of his excellent Muay Thai and ground game. He will be jumping up a weight class which makes me weary, especially coming off back to back losses to Aldo and Korean Zombie. Hadzovic absolutely smothers his opponents and I think this is a great spot to get him at on DraftKings and especially FanDuel. I have a feeling that this fight goes the distance either way. I’m going with the cheaper dude, opposed with the highest on the slate in a tight scoring matchup. Damir Hadžovi by Decision

Gilbert Burns -185 (DK $9000, FD $18) vs Demian Maia +150 (DK $7200, FD $12)

  • Anthony: This is going to be an incredible co-main between two Brazilians at welterweight. This could be the final fight of Demian Maia’s career and nobody could be upset for him losing against the younger and more physically gifted Gilbert Burns. This is a very risky bet, but I anticipate Maia to rely on his grappling here as he has his entire career. Neither of these guys are great plays in your lineups as Burns is too expensive and Maia is not a lock for many points. I am confident that Maia’s grappling will win him round one and put the pressure on Burns, the heavy favorite. Demian Maia by Decision
  • Nick: Damion Maia has been fighting professionally for nearly 20 years. He’s one of the best submission artists the game has ever seen, and his Jiu-Jitsu is elite. Burns is like a younger Maia in some regards. He’s Jiu-Jitsu is also elite, but his youth is his biggest edge here and he also comes in with much better striking than Maia. This fight figures to be one of the closest on the card, but I’m going with the value on the veteran. I think the better jiu-jitsu is the difference here. Demian Maia by Decision.
  • GB: Arguably one of the best 170lbs of the decade, and gets it done, Maia has been one of my favorite fighters since entering the UFC. On the other side of the octagon will be a younger, mirror image of Maia. I expect this to end in a submission, or by UD. I give the edge to Burns because of his age but this will be one of the best fights of the night. Gilbert Burns by Round Three Submission

Kevin Lee -160 (DK $8300, FD $16) vs Charles Oliveira +130 (DK $7900, FD $15)

  • Anthony: Here is our main event. For those of you who are not aware, this fight is scheduled for five rounds in the lightweight division. The winner here should have a much clearer shot at a title soon. Kevin Lee is the favorite and will be the much heavier man after missing weight by 2.5 pounds. The chance of this fight going the distance is slim to none and I am going to put my faith in Charles Oliveira here to catch Lee in a submission. Once they are off their feet and the fight hits the mat, it should take no more than 60 seconds for us to see a finish. I would run about half of my lineups with Oliveira because this fight is not easy, but he could have the highest value on the card. Charles Oliveira by Round One Submission
  • Nick: Every other guy that has missed weight has won their fight this year (3-0). Lee has seen tougher competition than Oliveira, especially recently, and he’s shown us he can finish anyone. The “enemy territory” narrative is moot with no fans in the crowd, and I like Lee to continue to find success now that he’s back down to lightweight.  His price is nice on both DFS sites. The 6-fight win streak for Oliveira has mostly come against guys he’s been favored against. I’ll take Lee as the favorite. It’s risky, but his upside is excellent on both sites for DFS purposes. Kevin Lee by Round Two KO.
  • GB: Lee has looked flat lately although he had switched camps to Tristar in Montreal before his last bout (which he won by KO). I don’t believe he’s at a stable point yet and has only had 3 KOs in his last 23 fights. Give me Oliveria at the cheaper price on both sites. He looks to be in the best shape of his career after winning 6 in a row, all of which are finishes. Charles Oliveira by Round Two Submission