UFC Fight Night 175 – 6.20.2020 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

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Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night 175. We are back in the octagon tonight after a very exciting card last weekend. Our analysis will include a pick for every fight from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values advances (such as to half guard, to mount…) and reversals. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. If you are in search of a good website to tail any of our picks, I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses!

Nick: 51-25-1    Anthony: 46-30-1    GB: 43-33-1

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 10:30 AM EST 6-20-2020

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST

Max Rohskopf -200 (DK $7800, FD $16) vs Austin Hubbard +160 (DK $8400, FD $14)

  • Anthony: We start the evening at lightweight as Austin Hubbard welcomes to the octagon Max Rohskopf who makes his UFC debut. I think the public is a little too excited about this young prospect. Rohskopf dominated with first round submissions in his last four fights, but it is hard to imagine he can get one that easily here. Hubbard just faced Mark O. Madsen who is a much better wrestler than Rohskopf. He not only survived in that fight but won the third round thanks to his superb cardio. I think Rohskopf begins to fade after round one in this fight. Hubbard will stuff his takedown attempts and win on the scorecards. He is a viable play on FanDuel, while Rohskopf you can run on either site. Austin Hubbard by Decision
  • Nick: This is a tough one. I have been going back and forth on this one since it was announced earlier in the week. Max Rohskopf is a very exciting prospect. He’s a nationally decorated wrestler that has a bunch of creative submissions in his arsenal. In his short MMA career, he has shown an uncanny ability to score takedowns, and when he does he almsot always finds a way to end the fight early. The biggest question-mark surrounding Rohskopf here is his experience. He’s never fought into a third round and we’ve never really seen his chin tested. Hubbard hasn’t been submitted since 2016, but he can be taken down as we saw frequently in his last fight against Mark O. Madsen. A lot of people are buying into the Rohskopf hype, and I’m going to as well. I see him clamping onto Hubbard early and finding a way to the finish. Max Rohskopf by Round One Submission
  • GB: Max Rohskopf by Round Two Submission

Roxanne Modafferi -115 (DK $8500, FD $16) vs Lauren Murphy -115 (DK $7700, FD $13)

  • Anthony: Next up we have a very close fight at women’s flyweight between Roxanne Modafferi and Lauren Murphy. This one will likely go the distance as Murphy has never been finished and Modaferri was last beaten before the horn over eight years ago. Both enter winning three of their last five, but neither are top contenders in my eyes. While each are well rounded, I think Modafferi is a bit more technically sound. I just think Murphy can work her against the cage and earn a boring decision win here. Regardless, there is no way to justify paying for Modafferi in your lineups. Lauren Murphy by Decision
  • Nick: Neither of girls bring any notable skills to the octagon, but they are both very tough. Each is coming off a controversial victory, Murphy via scorecards and Modafferi wining as a +525 underdog after a Maycee Barber injury. This feels like the least likely fight to finish inside the distance, so I’m not really looking at either of these girls for DFS purposes. They’ll both throw their shots, but I see Modafferi’s improved strength being a difference here. It looks like she’s put on a lot of muscle during quarantine which is big for her since she’s never really looked all that much like a fighter before this week. Murphy is gritty, she’s well-rounded, but she really doesn’t have many paths to victory here as her wins have mostly come against smaller fighters. Roxanne Modafferi by Decision
  • GB: Lauren Murphy by Decision

Frank Camacho -335 (DK $8000, FD $16) vs Justin Jaynes +255 (DK $6900, FD $11)

  • Anthony: At lightweight we have Frank Camacho taking on Justin Jaynes after his original opponent Max Frevola was forced to withdraw. The favorite Camacho was the only fighter to tip the scales yesterday, coming in at two pounds overweight. That should not make a difference here though as regardless he should be able to outclass his opponent. He has fought very tough competition and yet still needs a big win to help keep his roster spot secure. We will see high volume striking and great utilization of his 5.5-inch reach advantage tonight. Keep in mind he was priced prior to the Frevola news. He is almost a lock to hit value and will be one of my highest owned fighters on the card. Frank Camacho by Round One KO
  • Nick: Frank Camacho gets an easier fight than he would have had if Matt Frevola wasn’t scratched. Instead of coming in as an underdog, he’s now a heavy favorite against UFC newcomer Justin Jaynes. His price stays the same on DraftKings and FanDuel, making him one of the best DFS plays on the entire card. Jaynes has more experience on the regional circuit than a lot of guys do coming in at 15-4, but Camacho is just too good of a striker to find himself in much trouble here against a much smaller Jaynes. It is worth noting that Camacho missed weight, but he looked fine on the scale and I don’t expect that to matter much here. Not only is Jaynes taking this fight on short notice, but he’ll also have to overcome a nearly six-inch reach advantage. This one could get ugly. Frank Camacho by Round One KO
  • GB: Frank Camacho by Round One KO

Gillian Robertson -120 (DK $8300, FD $16) vs Cortney Casey -110 (DK $7900, FD $15)

  • Anthony: This card keeps rolling with a great women’s flyweight bout between Cortney Casey and Gillian Robertson. Yesterday, Casey looked completely drained as she stood naked on the scale for weigh-ins but was surprisingly two and a half pounds shy of the limit. It was peculiar to see as obviously she had a difficult cut, but I still think she is going to get the best of Robertson in this fight. Her striking advantage is huge and while Robertson may have the better ground game, I like what I have seen from Casey as far as offensive grappling goes. Either girl could win inside the distance here making them worth a look while building you lineups. Cortney Casey by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: On the last card, we saw Jessica Eye look deathly on the scale and then get absolutely worked by Cynthia Calvillo. I mentioned I considered flipping my pick, but ultimately, I took the loss on that one as I wasn’t sure an ugly weight cut was enough to really dampen her size difference. We have a similar situation here, and I refuse to make the same mistake twice. Casey was literally quivering at weigh-ins yesterday, she made weight by three pounds – but just looking at her you could tell how brutal that cut must have been. Robertson, of American Top Team, has a very nice BJJ game and should be able to take Casey down at will here. Casey is absolutely the better striker in this match-up, but she really has not shown above average takedown defense. I see Robertson shooting at Casey early and often in this one and ultimately grinding out a victory inside the distance. Gillian Robertson by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Cortney Casey by Round Two KO

Marc-André Barriault -120 (DK $7600, FD $15) vs Oskar Piechota -135 (DK $8600, FD $17)

  • Anthony: You should expect a sloppy fight at middleweight here as Marc-André Barriault takes on Oskar Piechota. Both enter on three fight skids, but the competition they faced was rather talented. The three fighters that beat Piechota probably would have also beaten Barriault, and vice versa. I am a fan of the constant pressure that Barriault applies but I do not think he will be able to match the cardio of Piechota for a full fifteen minutes. He should start the fight with the intention of ending it early and I think the smaller cage will help him do just that. If however this does go to a third round it is Piechota’s fight to lose. Marc-André Barriault by Round One KO
  • Nick:Neither of these guys are very good. They’re both on three fight losing streaks and it wouldn’t be surprising if the loser was cut after this one. Piechota has faced the tougher competition of late, and while he definitely has a greater ability to finish a fight inside the distance, he never looks aggressive enough to really take over. Barriault seems worse than Piechota at pretty much everything, with his one plus being that he likes to apply pressure and control the pace of a fight. Besides that, there’s really nothing all that impressive about his game if you’re watching his last few fights. I really don’t like either guy here, but since they’re both bad I wouldn’t be shocked if either scores an early finish and squeaked into the optimal linep.Oskar Piechota by Round Two KO.
  • GB: Marc-André Barriault by Round Two KO

Brianna Van Buren -210 (DK $9000, FD $18) vs Tecia Torres +170 (DK $7200, FD $11)

  • Anthony: Already we have our third women’s fight of the card as Tecia Torres will fight Brianna Van Buren here at straw weight. You will notice that Torres enters losing four consecutive decisions but take that with a grain of salt as they were against some of the best females on the UFC roster. She still is lackluster in the striking department (in terms of damage) and I think a red hot Van Buren will be able to piece her. This should be a convincing win on the scorecards. Torres was able to survive three rounds with Zhang Weili so it is safe to say she can do so here as well. Brianna Van Buren by Decision
  • Nick: Tecia Torres has lost four straight fights, but all those losses were against the best of the best in the division. It feels like the UFC is looking to boost Brianna Van Buren’s stock here, but Torres is far from a pushover. She likes to apply pressure and she has a solid volume striking game. She’s relentless in pursuit and very difficult to finish. As disrespected as Torres might be on the cards here, Van Buren is the better grappler and likely also be the better striker. Torres has very little takedown defense, which plays right into Van Buren’s strength here. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if Torres pulled off the upset. Brianna Van Buren by Decision
  • GB: Tecia Torres by Decision

Bobby Green -270 (DK $9100, FD $19) vs Clay Guida +210 (DK $7100, FD $12)

  • Anthony: The prelims end here at lightweight where Clay Guida steps into the octagon once more to face “King” Bobby Green. The veteran Guida will stick to his usual game plan here by mixing in volume with takedown attempts. I think that while Green may find himself in tough positions on the mat, he will also be able to recover from those and get back standing. Green lost his two decisions, but they were clear victories on my scorecard. He will be motivated to finish this fight before the horn and I think he will be able to do so against a tough, but long in the tooth Guida. However, he is too expensive to bet on or warrant high exposure for DFS. Bobby Green by Round One KO
  • Nick: Guida is a legend of the game but he’s far past his prime. Green has been the victim of a few bad decisions recently, but he seems to be the same fighter he has been for the past several years. He’s a decent grappler, but an underrated striker than likes to dance around the ring and talk as much smack as possible. Guida talks a lot too, which could make this a fun fight in the empty arena. The biggest issue for Green has been that he doesn’t do enough to win close fights on the scorecards. His losses to both Trinaldo and Klose could have easily gone his way if he was just a bit more aggressive. While Guida certainly has a chance in this one if he can maintain his motor, this feels like Green’s fight to lose. I would not bet on him in this spot given the juice you have to pay. Bobby Green by Round One KO
  • GB: Clay Guida by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Roosevelt Roberts -240 (DK $9200, FD $20) vs Jim Miller +190 (DK $7000, FD $12)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with an amazing catchweight fight as veteran Jim Miller faces a rising star in Roosevelt Roberts. Both fighters jump up five pounds for this fight announced just eleven days ago. I do not know how long Miller has been preparing for this fight, but Roberts will certainly be ready. He dominated Brok Weaver in May and is going to be ready for this jump in competition. Roberts should use his length and speed to beat up on Miller tonight. I think you need to target this fight while building lineups because it either ends inside the distance, or you get a high scoring decision win from Roberts. Roosevelt Roberts by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: There’s way too much juice on Roberts here. I understand that there’s a lot of hype on this kid, but he hasn’t really been tested by anyone even close to Miller’s level yet. Sure, Miller is heading into the twilight of his career, but he still has more in the tank than a lot of guys his age. Roberts’ takedown defense is decent, but in his fights against Yakolev and Pichel he has shown vulnerabilities. He likes to strike off his back foot a lot more than he should, and he doesn’t scramble that well when he is in the cage with another strong grappler. The biggest advantage for Roberts here is his speed. The issue though, is that Miller is going to push the pace in the first round. Two of Miler’s last three victories came against fighters six feet or taller, so size will not make the difference here. I’ll have some exposure to Roberts in DFS but will back the veteran. Jim Miller by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Jim Miller by Round One KO

Belal Muhammed -130 (DK $8900, FD $18) vs Lyman Good +100 (DK $7300, FD $14)

  • Anthony: Lyman Good versus Belal Muhammed at welterweight is going to be an entertaining fight and both guys have a clear path to victory. For Muhammed it is going to be securing his takedowns and winning a lopsided decision. I was on the side of Muhammed earlier in the week because Good is not impressive when it comes to takedown defense. However, I still think he is well versed enough to stuff Muhammed tonight. This one is going to remain standing and that heavily favors Good. He is a very cheap DFS option that crushes value with a win. Muhammed’s price is justified though if you see things the opposite way. Lyman Good by Round Two KO
  • Nick: This should be an excellent fight. Lyman Good is solid as a brick and brings serious power to this one. He looks like a linebacker and hits just as hard as one. Since he’s carrying so much muscle there are questions about his cardio, which could spell trouble here as Muhammad is a grinder. Belal Muhhamed doesn’t have much power as a striker, but he does a good job changing levels and finding takedowns. He has an excellent leg sweep that he utilizes very effectively in taking opponents to the mat. I was initially on Good here but seeing these guys faceoff the size difference really is not as dramatic as I expected it to be. Good has knockout power, but Muhammad should be the more active fighter here and I see him finding success with that leg hook takedown in a similar manner as he did against, Curtis Millender. Belal Muhammed by Decision
  • GB: Belal Muhammed by Round Two Submission

Raquel Pennington -190 (DK $8800, FD $17) vs Marion Reneau +155 (DK $7400, FD $13)

  • Anthony: Our final female fight of the evening comes at bantamweight as Raquel Pennington takes on the birthday girl Marion Reneau. This fight is probably not going to be the best on the card but is compelling none the less. Reneau will prefer to land heavy strikes and go for a finish but I do not think Pennington is the type of fighter she can overpower. In the clinch and as far as offensive grappling goes, I heavily favor Pennington as well. She is the younger fighter by twelve years and should begin to pull away toward the fight’s end. Raquel Pennington by Decision
  • Nick: Marion Reneau is more than a decade older than Pennington, who before going on her recent skid she was considered one of the more serious title contenders in this division. I really like hearing her in interviews saying that she’s looking to make more of a statement here following her snooze-fest loss to Holly Holm. Reneau is no pushover, she has solid grappling and good enough striking to stand with the lot of this division. Still, I think Pennington does enough to control the fight against the cage and ultimately win on the scorecards. Pennington likes to take her fights into deep waters, which should favor Pennington’s youth in this spot. I’m not loving either for DFS purposes. Raquel Pennington by Decision
  • GB: Raquel Pennington by Decision

Shane Burgos -160 (DK $8700, FD $17) vs Josh Emmett +130 (DK $7500, FD $15)

  • Anthony: It is likely that Fight of the Night resides here at featherweight as Josh Emmett braces for a main event clash with Shane Burgos. A win here will put either guy in great standing in the division. Emmett has some nice wrestling to rely on, but my assumption is both guys will prefer to keep it standing here. I would give the power advantage to Emmett, but Burgos has the edge in almost all other aspects of striking. He is going to pepper Emmett every minute they are on the feet. He throws insanely quick punches and one of the best right kicks in the UFC. Yes of course Emmett has the threat of ending this with one punch, but I think Burgos can survive here even if he gets knocked down. Shane Burgos by Round Two KO
  • Nick: This is easily one of the best fights on this card. Burgos is a volume machine; he throws a ton of strikes and does a good job keeping his opponents guessing by mixing in body shots. He’s an outstanding boxer, and on fight day he’s a lot bigger than most of the other guys in the division. Emmett has the power to end any fight with one punch. He’s going to be the better wrestler/grappler here, but he never really seems to try to lean on this part of his game. The one knock on Burgos is that likes to lean forward to bait opponents and set up combos, which could spell trouble for him here. You have to think Burgos knows that going into this though. Emmett was an underdog in his last four fights, winning three of them. He absolutely has upside here, but I’ll go with the more well-rounded striker in Burgos. Shane Burgos by Decision
  • GB: Josh Emmett by Round One KO

Cutis Blaydes -450 (DK $9400, FD $23) vs Alexander Volkov +325 (DK $6800, FD $16)

  • Anthony: The main event tonight is a heavyweight bout between Curtis Blaydes, the biggest favorite on the card, and Alexander Volkov. There is no need to really overthink this one in my eyes. Sure, Volkov could put together some nice combinations but he does not have the power threat to keep Blaydes off him. The wrestling sets up this fight so easily for Blaydes. He can threaten takedowns and then attack Volkov when his hands are down, but I think instead he just shoots early and often. The smaller cage does nothing here but make his job that much easier. I think we see the best version of him in this fight tonight and suspect he ends this one in similar fashion to how he beat Alistair Overeem. Lock him in for DFS and bet Blaydes inside the distance. Curtis Blaydes by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Alexander Volkov’s height is likely to hurt him more than help him here. His length makes him easy to take down and Blaydes is a stud when it comes to grappling and wrestling. Volkov really didn’t look all that impressive in his last fight against Greg Hardy when you consider he was nearly a -300 favorite. He managed to piece him and win on the scorecards, but he never really hurt him or tagged him the way a lot of people were expecting him to. For DFS purposes, Blaydes is the closest thing we have on this card to what Merab did for us last week. He’s expensive, but he’ll be my highest owned play on both sites. I tried, but I really can’t find a clear path to victory for Volkov here. Curtis Blaydes by Round Two KO
  • GB: Curtis Blaydes by Round Three KO

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice