UFC Vegas 10: Waterson vs Hill – 9.12.2020 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

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Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 10: Waterson vs Hill. After the short card last weekend, we have a lot of fights to enjoy this evening. Our analysis will include a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values advances (such as to half guard, to mount…) and reversals. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. If you are in search of a good website to tail any of our picks, I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses!

Nick: 131-75-2  GB: 123-83-2  Anthony: 120-86-2     

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 11:00 AM EST 9-12-2020

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST

Sabina Mazo -250 (DK $9200, FD $18) vs Justine Kish +195 (DK $7000, FD $12)

  • Anthony: We have a women’s flyweight bout here as Sabina Mazo will step into the octagon to face Justine Kish. I think that this line is unjustified and Kish is getting disrespected by the oddsmakers. Mazo is the much younger fighter and will likely land more volume but Kish has a power advantage that can win her a few moments here. Both are fades for me on DraftKings and FanDuel, but I will take a chance on the underdog here. Justine Kish by Decision
  • Nick: Mazo will have a significant five inch reach advantage here. She’s most effective striking at close range and in the clinch. She’s a prospect on the rise, but we really haven’t seen her much against higher level competition. Kish has shown some serious grit, she’s strong for the division and fairly well-rounded. She’s the more experienced fighter out of the two here, but outside of strength/grit I expect Mazo to outclass her wherever this fight goes. The difference in experience is notable, but the one big issue with backing Kish as a dog here is that she doesn’t throw enough volume to win if this one goes to the scorecards.  Mazo throws a lot of strikes, so she’s going to win this one handily on paper as long as it stays on the feet. The line is definitely too wide, Kish is a live dog. Still, I’m going with length and reach of the favorite in a fight I expect to mostly stay on the feet. Sabina Mazo by Decision
  • GB: Justine Kish by Decision

Bryan Barberena -260 (DK $9000, FD $21) vs Anthony Ivy +200 (DK $7200, FD $11)

  • Anthony: The next bout at welterweight should be a good one as Bryan Barberena takes on Anthony Ivy. You may recall Ivy getting beat up earlier this summer as a favorite against Christian Aguilera. Seeing him completely fall apart after taking a few heavy shots makes me concerned about his durability. Facing a guy in Barberena that can really pour it on makes me think he meets the same fate this evening. I do not see Ivy being able to finish this one early and can not trust him to last a full fifteen minutes. Bryan Barberena by Round One KO
  • Nick: Anthony Ivy has had some success on the regional scene, but he didn’t look good in his UFC debut against Christian Aguilera. Additionally, he really hasn’t beaten anyone even close to Barberena’s level. Barbarena has fought some of the toughest Welterweights in the UFC. He’s coming off a long lay-off, but interviews and social media suggest he spent the recent chunk of that lay-off training and improving his craft. There are some concerns about backing him here at such a wide line as he’s coming off an injury. Still, this feels like the UFC is throwing him a bone here. This is a tune-up fight for Barberena. I expect Barberena to back Ivy down early, pour on the strikes and end things in the First. Bryan Barberena by Round One KO
  • GB: Anthony Ivy by Round Two KO

Jalin Turner -400 (DK $9000, FD $19) vs Brok Weaver +300 (DK $7500, FD $14)

  • Anthony: Brok Weaver was originally scheduled to face Frank Camacho tonight but now draws a short notice replacement in Jalin Turner. While I was considering him in his initial bout, this match up is a lot more difficult. A guy with length like Turner should be able to beat up Weaver just like Roosevelt Roberts did this past May. Turner also had been preparing for a fight before a late cancellation last weekend. I like Weaver, but he is far too comfortable eating shots and I see him getting finished in this one. Jalin Turner by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Frank Camacho was scheduled to fight Brok Weaver here, but he’s since been scratched with Covid. Jalin Turner now enters the fold on very short notice, but it is worth noting that he had been in camp for a fight on last week’s card with Thiago Moises. Weaver has a chin on him. He’s a strong striker with decent enough ability on the mat to scramble against mid-level grapplers. Like Weaver, Turner is primarily a striker. He does an excellent job using his length to keep opponents at a distance. He has enough power in his shots to end a fight early, but it’s mostly the volume with his jab that makes him so effective. Eight of Turner’s Nine victories have come by way of Finish. I see this one starting on the feet, but Turner eventually using his long frame to take Weaver’s back and end things inside the distance. As tough as Weaver is, I just don’t see him landing significant enough strikes to keep Turner from finding that neck. Jalin Turner by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Jalin Turner by Round Two KO

Alexander Romanov -450 (DK $8700, FD $19) vs Roque Martinez +325 (DK $7500, FD $12)

  • Anthony: It seems like Alexander Romanov will finally make his UFC debut after three fight cancellations, facing off with Roque Martinez tonight. I studied up on Martinez as best as I could and he fights in a style very similar to Romanov. However, his resume is not as impressive. Romanov is the favorite for good reason and I am picking him again, as I planned to last weekend. He should be able to take this fight to the ground and finish it either by knockout or an early choke. Alexander Romanov by Round One Submission
  • Nick: Obviously as Heavyweights both guys are strong, but Romanov has shown tremendous strength in his grappling. It may have come against mediocre competition, but the 29-year-old Moldovan has shown an uncanny ability to lift other Heavyweights entirely off the ground and rag-doll them as if they were a whole lot smaller. He has decent striking, but highly effective ground-and-pound, so he does have finishing ability here as well. Martinez has some decent experience, but Romanov was clearly the bigger fighter when these guys stood off following weigh-ins. The one clear path for Martinez to Win here would be by way of Knockout, but I have trouble expecting him to find it against a better grappler and a taller/rangier Romanov. These lower level Heavyweight fights can always go either way. Still, I’m siding with the favorite. Alexander Romanov by Round One KO
  • GB: Alexander Romanov by Round One KO

Roosevelt Roberts -375 (DK $8400, FD $17) Kevin Croom +285 (DK $6700, FD $12)

  • Anthony: One of the toughest picks on the card was a middleweight bout between Matt Frevola and Roosevelt Roberts. However, Frevola withdrew yesterday morning which leaves the door open for Kevin Croom. It seems like Croom has been waiting in the wings for an opponent from the UFC and will finally step into the octagon tonight. However, he draws a daunting opponent in Roberts. I fully expect range to be an issue for Croom and anticipate Roberts will be able to pick him apart here. He has a nasty submission game as well so more likely than not this one will finish early. Given his price Roberts will be a very high owned option on both sites. Roosevelt Roberts by Round One Submission
  • Nick: While I do feel Roberts is a bit overrated as a prospect, I don’t see him having much trouble with Kevin Croom, a late fill-in opponent here. Croom has a lot of experience on the regional scene, but it’s telling he’s never really made the jump to that next level. Three of Croom’s last Five losses have come via choke. Three of Roberts’ last Five Wins have come via choke. Roberts should outclass Croom wherever this fight goes, but the fact that one of Roberts’ greatest strengths is also one of Croom’s greatest weaknesses makes this one of my more confident picks on this card. This should be a good fight for a Round, maybe two. However, I see Roberts’ technical advantages eventually winning out. Roosevelt Roberts by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Roosevelt Roberts by Decision

Julia Avila -310 (DK $9400, FD $19) vs Sijara Eubanks +240 (DK $6800, FD $10)

  • Anthony: This women’s bantamweight fight should be a fun one as Julia Avila takes on Sijara Eubanks. Like Jalin Turner, Eubanks finds a spot on this card after losing her opponent last weekend. She however gets a very tough draw in Julia Avila who has impressed in her last four wins. Eubanks is going to come out of the gate firing but tends to fade as the fight wears on. I think she will take the first round here, but Avila will pull away after that with far crisper striking. There is no reason to pay up for Avila on either site though given the size of this card. Not to mention it is tough to bet her at this price, perhaps finding more value live after the first five minutes. Julia Avila by Decision
  • Nick: Eubanks is a tough and gritty fighter with advanced BJJ and an above average striking ability. While she’s an accredit BJJ practitioner, her greatest strength is her relentless approach. She’s the type to eat punches and keep moving forward in spite of them. Avila is fairly new to the division, but she’s already shown strong ability in the clinch. She’s an aggressive striker who throws a lot of volume and has true finishing ability, with 5 of her 8 Wins coming inside the distance. I will say that the line is likely too wide on this one. Avila should get it done here, but Eubanks’ relentless style has “live dog” written all over it. My confidence level is fairly low in this one, but I’m leaning with the favorite. Julia Avila by Decision
  • GB: Julia Avila by Decision

Main Card- Starts 8:00pm EST

Billy Quarantillo -260 (DK $9300, FD $19) vs Kyle Nelson +200 (DK $6900, FD $13)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with a featherweight bout between Billy Quarantillo and Kyle Nelson. This feels like a bit of a step down in competition after Quarantillo’s last win against Spike Carlyle. He really impressed me in that fight and now should have no problem facing an inferior striker in Kyle Nelson. This is one I expect to end early and Nelson certainly is live, but I have no problem paying the jucie for a unit or two on Quarantillo. He can win by any method whether it be knockout, submission or decision. If you have the salary to fit him on DraftKings he should be worth the steep price tag. Billy Quarantillo by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: Kyle Nelson is going to come out swinging here. He has Knockout power, and in most of his fights he tries to end things on the feet in the first round. Knowing this, he should be considered a live dog in this spot. That being said, Quarantillo should be able to turn this into his style of fight. He’s going to have a serious advantage over Nelson on the mat so as long as he can weather that early storm, he should be able to find the position(s) he needs here to get it done.  Quarantillo throws a lot of volume, which should help him keep Nelson at bay. Regardless, I think Quarantillo succeeds at taking Nelson down early and taking this one to the mat. From there, he should significantly outclass Nelson and find the position he needs to finish this one. This is another fight where the line feels a bit too wide. I can’t back the dog here though. Billy Quarantillo by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Kyle Nelson by Decision

Bobby Green -280 (DK $9100, FD $18) vs Alan Patrick +220 (DK $7100, FD $14)

  • Anthony: Up next at lightweight is a fight between Allan Patrick and Bobby Green that you will want to tune in for. Bobby Green picked up two impressive wins this summer against Clay Guida and Lando Vanatta and now faces an opponent that I’d consider less of a threat than both. Patrick has looked alright in the UFC but lacks big wins and fights tonight after nearly a two-year layoff. Green on the other hand has a resume that impresses with good wins and losses only to very tough competition. He should have no problem on the feet given his exceptional boxing and I could even see him getting a finish in this one. It is one of my more confident picks on the card. Bobby Green by Round Three KO
  • Nick: Allan Patrick hasn’t fought since 2018, so there are a lot of questions marks around him heading into this one. Green has already Won two fights in 2020. He’s shown an improved fight IQ in both of those recent matches and his boxing ability is certainly above average in this division. He has shown solid cardio, a decent chin, and against middle level competition he’s been very effective no matter where the fight goes. While I don’t think Green has what it takes to compete for a title at Lightweight, I do think he’ll continue to Win the fights he’s supposed to. Patrick is likely going to try to take this one to the mat. He’s shown an ability to Win fights by maintaining good position, even if he doesn’t inflict a lot of damage. The problem for him here though is Green has excellent strength and scrambling. Even if Patrick can take him down, I don’t think he can keep him there. If/when he gets frustrated early, he’s likely going to be content to stand and trade with Green more than he should here. Green hasn’t finished a fight inside the distance in years, so he may be a bit overpriced for DFS. Still, I’m siding with the favorite Bobby Green by Decision
  • GB: Bobby Green by Round Two KO

Mike Rodriguez -250 (DK $8800, FD $20) vs Ed Herman +210 (DK $7400, FD $12)

  • Anthony: This is an excellent fight at light heavyweight between Ed Herman and Mike Rodriguez. I really think oddsmakers are begging you to bet on Herman here at the current price. This should be a very close bout as while Rodriguez has the power to knock a lot of guys out, Herman has a significant advantage in terms of cardio and volume. He is a very tough out and I believe that as this fight wears on he will be able to continue applying pressure as Rodriguez starts to look desperate. We very well could see old Herman get finished in the first round, but I will take a chance on him in this spot. He was last knocked out, by head kick, over four years ago. Ed Herman by Decision
  • Nick: This will be Rodriguez’s second fight in less than a month. We just saw his knockout power against Marcin Prachino, but that was third fight in a row that Prachino was KO’d in the first round. Herman has been fighting forever. He’s extremely gritty, and he still has a decent chin for a guy with as much ring time as he’s had. It certainly seems like his career is on a downturn, but he’s coming off back-to-back victories and he still seems to Win fights against middle to lower level opponents. This is a tough one to call as the UFC is trying to test Rodriguez here. We’ll know a lot more about him after this one, as Herman is one of those true measuring-stick type of fighters left in the division. I question Rodriguez’s gas tank having had to cut weight twice in one month. I also feel that a lot of Rodriguez’s KO Punches aren’t going to be enough to stop a tough dude in Herman who will be willing to trade. My confidence level is fairly low here, but I’m siding with the veteran savvy of the underdog to get it done. Ed Herman by Decision
  • GB: Mike Rodriguez by Round One KO

Andrea Lee -335 (DK $8900, FD $19) vs Roxanne Modafferi +255 (DK $7300, FD $9)

  • Anthony: This women’s flyweight bout between Andrea Lee and Roxanne Modafferi just doesn’t get the juices flowing. Lee is a huge favorite here for good reason but is difficult to bet straight at such a steep price. Modafferi has been the more active of the two but her seventeen losses make her extremely difficult to trust. I do believe she makes it to a decision but not before getting beat up by Lee for fifteen minutes. She got the better of Lee six years ago but the same won’t be said today. Andrea Lee by Decision
  • Nick: The line on this one definitely feels too wide. Lee has much cleaner and more advanced striking, but Modafferi is the stronger of the two. Additionally, Modafferi is going to be at an advantage here if she can take this one to the mat. Modafferi does a good job using her size/strength to control position, but her offensive grappling does leave a lot to be desired. Even when she Wins grappling exchanges, she doesn’t usually do enough damage to slow down her opponent. It will be a key for her in this one to put in work if she can take Lee to the mat. Lee will need to keep this fight on the feet, but if she doesn’t – I don’t really see Modafferi hurting her to badly. As long as she can stand and strike for the majority of 15 minutes, this is Lee’s fight to lose. Again, this one is a whole lot closer than the line indicates. I’m siding with the favorite, but Modafferi is a Live dog at a nice price. Andrea Lee by Decision
  • GB: Roxanna Modafferi by Decision

Khama Worthy -135 (DK $8500, FD $15) vs Ottman Azaitar +105 (DK $7700, FD $17)

  • Anthony: Tonight’s co-main event should be a banger as Khama Worthy will face the undefeated Ottman Azaitar at middleweight. Worthy has really revitalized his career since moving up from 145 pounds and I really like what I have seen out of him. He usually puts on an excellent performance and I expect to see nothing different this evening. However, Azaitar is an enormous threat to him in this match. One shot is enough to put Worthy away and I believe that Azaitar will be able to step in and find it before the end of round one. If this fight does go longer it becomes a much closer bout as Azaitar is not accustomed to seeing the judge’s scorecards. I will take a shot on him here and love the value you can get on him for both FanDuel and DraftKings. Ottman Azaitar by Round One KO
  • Nick: This is an extremely close fight here. Worthy is coming off an impressive Win against Luis Pena, and Azatair is coming of a Knockout Win in his UFC debut against Teemu Packalen. Worthy is likely the more well-rounded fighter, he has Knockout power, solid cardio and as he showed in his last fight against Pena that he’s been improving on the mat. As good as Worthy has looked lately, he’s definitely chinny. He’s been Knocked Out in 5 of his 6 losses and the longer this fight goes on – the more likely I think Azaitar finds his window to Finish. Worthy hasn’t really had to deal with power like Azaitar’s in a while. This one could go either way and it has Fight of the Night potential. Additionally, I’m really liking Worthy’s price on FanDuel. Still, I’m siding with the underdog. Ottman Azaitar by Round Two KO
  • GB: Ottman Azaitair by Round One KO

Angela Hill -130 (DK $8200, FD $20) vs Michelle Waterson +100 (DK $8000, FD $17)

  • Anthony: The main event is a women’s strawweight bout between Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson. This should be a very exciting fight although it will more than likely be dragged out a full 25 minutes. Waterson has very crisp striking and will likely utilize the ground game a bit more often than Hill can. I would not be surprised to see her pull ahead in the early going but fade as this fight wears on. Hill hits hard and has been extremely active, climbing her way up the rankings over the past two years. I think Waterson is too tough to be finished in this one and it is unlikely she can find a finish of her own. If Joanna Jędrzejczyk couldn’t get her out early I do not think Hill has a great chance to either. I expect this fight to go the distance and for Hill to win a very close decision. Angela Hill by Decision
  • Nick: Hill has the striking advantage here, mostly based on volume. Waterson throws clean and measured strikes, but if this lasts all five rounds she could have issues keeping up on the scorecards. While Hill seems to have the edge on the feet, Waterson will have the edge on the mat. Hill’s grappling is still undeveloped, and we’ve seen Waterson control and advance position against a who’s who of high-level Straw-weights. At face-offs, Hill was the visibly bigger fighter. She carries a lot more muscle, so her strength advantage in this one should help to limit Waterson’s advantage on the mat. This strength should help her to scramble and get back to her feet if she is taken down. A major key in this fight will be Hill keeping Waterson off her back. Both of these girls are tough. I don’t really see either knocking out the other unless they can overwhelm their opponent to the point that the ref steps in and ends it. Since I do expect this to go to the scorecards, Hill’s volume striking should be enough to get it done. Angela Hill by Decision
  • GB: Angela Hill by Decision

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice