UFC Vegas 12: Hall vs Silva – 10.31.2020 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

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Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 12: Hall vs Silva. We have returned from Fight Island in Abu Dhabi to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. After seeing one legend retire last weekend we likely see another fight in his last UFC bout tonight, Anderson Silva. Our analysis includes a pick for every fight from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values advances (such as to half guard, to mount…) and reversals. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. If you are in search of a good website to bet on any of our picks, I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses!

Nick: 188-99-5    Anthony: 176-111-5    GB: 168-119-5

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 10:15 AM EST 10-31-2020

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Miles Johns -155 (DK $8400, FD $18) vs Kevin Natividad +125 (DK $7800, FD $12)

  • Anthony: The card opens with a bantamweight bout between Miles Johns and Kevin Natividad. Johns is a well-rounded fighter, but I believe he is at a significant striking disadvantage in this fight. Natividad hits a lot harder and throws far more sophisticated strikes than those of Johns. He does a good job moving out of the way of shots as well which may pose a problem for Johns who tends to only aim at the head. Most exchanges are going to go the way of Natividad and so this fight will be decided by the takedown. Johns will try to wrestle a lot but if Natividad is capable of stuffing him or getting up quickly, this fight will be very one sided. I am taking Natividad here on a card where there are very few live dogs to choose from. Kevin Natividad by Round Three KO
  • Nick:Miles Johns is primarily a grappler. He’s shown proficiency wrestling with both single and double leg entries and in this fight, he’s probably best off using it to control position. Natividad describes himself as a grappler, but his striking has been his most proven skill to this point. More than half of Natividad’s total wins have come by knockout. He does a good job following up his jab to start combos, and he packs a lot more power than we usually see out of a guy with his frame. Johns has decent power of his own but is far less technical. He often leaves himself open to counterpunches and he doesn’t always finish his combinations. He’s improving in that area, but he’d be wise to try to use his wrestling to keep this fight on the mat as much as possible. Johns appears to be the stronger of the two fighters here, and I think that’s the difference in this fight. Natividad has decent grappling as a BJJ brown belt, but Johns has shown an ability to consistently stay in top position. Coming off the first loss of his career and training out of an excellent camp in Fortis MMA, I expect Johns to come out better than we have ever seen him before. As long as he avoids getting into a firefight with Natividad, this feels like his fight to lose. There are a lot of heavy favorites on this card, and for that reason alone Natividad is intriguing as an underdog. However, it is impossible for me to back a guy with such a lackluster resume. Miles Johns by Decision
  • GB: Kevin Natividad by Decision

Dustin Jacoby -365 (DK $8900, FD $21) vs Justin Ledet +275 (DK $7300, FD $9)

  • Anthony: This is a very intriguing light heavyweight bout between Justin Ledet and Dustin Jacoby. The past three fights for Ledet have looked very bad and I find it very difficult to trust him at this stage of his career. He was undefeated prior to his move down in weight but now has lost three in a row. Ledet has also looked particularly bad when striking at range and that is likely where most of this bout takes place. Jacoby is a very talented kickboxer and looked good on Dana White’s Contender Series back in August. I anticipate that he wins this fight by simply landing much higher volume than Ledet and perhaps connecting on a knockout. He is worth some exposure on both sites, but I feel like he could score poorly even in a win. For his price tag there are other options that I prefer fighting later on the card. Dustin Jacoby by Decision
  • Nick: Dustin Jacoby has excellent striking. A former Glory Kickboxer, he boats a diverse arsenal of kicks and generally does a good job using them to keep his opponents at range. The one decent part of Ledet’s game is his boxing. He has a nice jab, a strong left hook, and he had continuously shown an ability to eat punches in order to throw them. Ledet was undefeated as a heavyweight but he’s now coming off three straight losses at light heavyweight. He still has his solid boxing, but in coming down a weight class he no longer has the speed advantage he did against bigger fighters.  This should be an entertaining match-up for as long as it lasts. Both of these guys like to stand and trade and neither guy is afraid to take a punch. While it wouldn’t shock me if Ledet somehow pulled of an upset here, Jacoby’s speed and superior kicking ability should be enough for him to get it done here. Ledet has a chin, so I’m not sure Jacoby gets it done inside the distance. Still, I have to side with the favorite here. Dustin Jacoby by Decision
  • GB: Dustin Jacoby by Round One KO

Jason Witt -160 (DK $8300, FD $16) vs Cole Williams +130 (DK $7900, FD $15)

  • Anthony: Next is a fight at welterweight between Cole Williams and Jason Witt. It is important to note that William weighed in five pounds too heavy yesterday, missing weight a second consecutive time. He looks to be out of shape and really is not an athlete that can compete with most UFC caliber opponents. Luckily, he fights Jason Witt who’s only bout in the UFC was a first-round knockout loss in his June debut. Neither of these guys have very high ceilings but Witt certainly is the more promising of the two. He has very good wrestling and should have no problem controlling Williams in this smaller octagon. I do not imagine him running into much trouble in and believe he is a great bet at the current odds. He could grind out Williams for a decision, but I think it is far more likely that this fight ends inside of the distance. Jason Witt by Round Two KO
  • Nick: This is a low-level fight between two guys that likely don’t belong in the UFC. Jason Witt trains under James Krause out of Glory MMA. He is a well-rounded fighter, but he doesn’t really excel in any one specific area. Most of his success comes from using wrestling, but he seems to fall apart against top-level competition. Witt does do a good job changing stances and levels. Like his coach, he makes it tough on his opponents to read him defensively. For the second fight in a row, Williams comes into this fight more than four pounds overweight. He hasn’t fought in over a year and given how badly he missed it’s hard to think his head is still in it. Like Witt, he’s fairly well-rounded. However, it is tough for me back a guy that looks like he just hopped off his couch. Witt said in an interview leading up to this fight, that he was ready to fight Williams more than a month ago. He said the fight was delayed as Williams needed more time, but it doesn’t look like Williams used that time well. Since neither of these guys are great my confidence level is low here. However, I see Witt using his wrestling to wear on Williams until he ultimately finds his back. Jason Witt by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Jason Witt by Decision

Sean Strickland -380 (DK $9100, FD $19) vs Jack Marshman +290 (DK $7100, FD $10)

  • Anthony: This should be a good fight at middleweight between Sean Strickland and Jack Marshman. I tried to talk myself into Mashman this week, but I cannot trust him with my money. He came in overweight and does not look to be in excellent condition. Meanwhile, Strickland seems to of put on significant muscle in his transition from 170 to 185 pounds. He seems to be the bigger fighter and I think we see him really piece up Marshman in this fight. There is obviously a lot of power coming back from Marshman which makes him dangerous, but I doubt he can put away Strickland tonight. This is hopefully a new and improved Strickland two years removed from a gruesome injury. Given all that time off it is difficult to predict how he will look in the octagon. However, I am confident he can shake off the rust here against a fighter that he really should beat. Sean Strickland by Decision
  • Nick: Strickland will be returning here after a two-year layoff. His only losses have come against top level competition, but he needed the long break as he was recovering from a motorcycle accident. It is always a little risky backing a guy off for so long, but if we’re comparing resumes here Strickland is a league above Marshman. Marshman is undoubtedly a brawler. He likes to stand in the pocket and exchange strikes. Defense is never really a priority for him but as he eats shots to throw them, often telegraphing his punches. Strickland comes in here with a similar style. He’s well-rounded but prefers to stand and strike. He has crisper boxing than Marshman and he also throws a lot more volume. Marshman has a puncher’s chance any time he is in the ring. He carries a lot of power and certainly has Hail Mary upside. That being said, he missed weight coming into this one and looked worse on the scales than he really ever has before. Strickland has the advantage no matter where this fight goes. The line does feel a bit too wide here given how long Strickland has been away, but he’s the logical choice here. Sean Strickland by Round Two KO
  • GB: Jack Marshman by Round Two KO

Adrian Yanez -450 (DK $9200, FD $16) vs Victor Rodriguez +325 (DK $7000, FD $13)

  • Anthony: Next is a bantamweight fight between UFC debutants Victor Rodriguez and Adrian Yanez. This is my most confident pick on the card. Rodriguez has looked good in his previous fights, but they have all been against terrible competition. He is nowhere near the striker of Adrian Yanez and I think we realize that early in this fight. Yanez is an alumnus of Dana White’s Contender Series where he got his last win two months ago. We got to see a win by knockout in under a minute in that performance, after Yanez landed a beautiful combination of punches. This is shaping up to be another highlight reel win for him tonight. Rodriguez is stepping in on short notice for Aaron Phillips and more than likely will not last a round. The FanDuel price for Yanez was set prior to the change of opponent making him a free square. He will be in every lineup that I build there, and in any that I can afford him on DraftKings. Adrian Yanez by Round One KO
  • Nick: Rodriguez is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Aaron Phillips. Yanez is coming off a Dana White’s Contender Series first round knockout of Brady Huang. Neither of these guys have much experience at this level, but Yanez has been the more active of the two. He’s a very technical boxer and throws sharp and effective combos better than many more experienced fighters in this division. He does a good job using combos to set up his power shots and his advanced boxing instincts at a young age have a lot of people already comparing him to Jorge Masvidal. Similarly to Masvidal, he does a good job throwing feints and leading his opponents into traps. All of the strikes he throws are meaningful.  Rodriguez is going to come out aggressive here. He has power, but I have trouble expecting him to find a place for it against a much more technical striker in Yanez. With almost all of Rodriguez’s professional wins coming via knockout, I expect he’ll stand and trade with Yaenz here. If they do he is in serious trouble. Rodriguez has power, but he will not be able to hang with Yanez here. Rodriguez just doesn’t appear ready for this level of competition. Adrian Yanez by Round One KO
  • GB: Adrian Yanez by Round Two KO

Alexander Hernandez -450 (DK $9300, FD $23) vs Chris Gruetzemacher +325 (DK $6900, FD $8)

  • Anthony: Our featured prelim is a lightweight bout between Chris Gruetzmacher and Alexander Hernandez. These two fighters are very similar in size apart from the four-inch reach advantage of Hernandez. I am going to assume that Gruetzmacher wants this fight to take place in boxing range, but Hernandez will more than likely be the vary superior striker. He has shown flashes of brilliance so far in his career and this is really a fight that he is supposed to win. Not only should he be able to hurt Gruetzmacher on the feet, but Hernandez also figures to be the superior grappler. He could very easily score a few takedowns if he decides that is where he has the biggest advantage. This is a confident pick for me but Hernandez is very expensive on both FanDuel and DraftKings. You may need him to win by finish and I think it is a coinflip whether he will or will not. Alexander Hernandez by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: This feels like a get-right spot for Hernandez. He is coming off a tough loss to Drew Dober, but it’s hard to get too down on him for that one as Dober is one of the more impressive lightweight prospects in the UFC.  Hernandez recently switched camps to Factory X. He’s always had talent, but the shift in camps could be enough for him to improve his Fight IQ and get back on the right track. Hernandez’s confidence was definitely too high coming into the UFC. He seems to finally have been humbled a bit, and I expect him to fight much more intelligently moving forward. If this fight stays standing, Hernandez’s five inch reach advantage should be enough for him to land shots and still stay out of Gruetzemacher’s range. Gruetzemacher hasn’t fought in over two years.  He throws powerful strikes, but he doesn’t unload much volume. Hernandez should be able to take control of this one no matter where it goes. He is a much better grappler than Gruetzmacher, and he’ll be the busier striker as well. If Hernandez isn’t careful Greutzemacher has the ability to hurt him. However, I see Hernandez getting back in the win column here. Alexander Hernandez by Round Two KO
  • GB: Alexander Hernandez by Round Two Submission

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Bobby Green -325 (DK $9000, FD $19) vs Thiago Moises +250 (DK $7200, FD $11)

  • Anthony: The main card opens with an awesome lightweight fight between Bobby Green and Thiago Moises. This year has been very good for Bobby Green as he has now tallied three wins since June. In his most recent bout, he put on a great performance against Alan Patrick stuffing all but one takedown attempt and dominating while on the feet. Green should approach this bout hoping to stay standing for even longer than he did against Patrick. Moises is a more deadly submission threat than Patrick and is the far inferior striking. This will more than likely be showcase of Green’s boxing and takedown defense, but a submission win by Moises is very live. However, Green has not lost inside the distance since a 2016 knockout versus Dustin Poirier. He has seen the judge’s scorecards in eight consecutive fights. Bobby Green by Decision
  • Nick: Bobby Green has been on fire this year. He’s coming off three consecutive victories over Clay Guida, Lando Vannata and Alan Patrick. He’s a well-rounded fighter, but his shoulder-roll boxing style is what stands out when you watch him on film. In summary, this is a striker vs. grappler match-up. Thiago Moises is a BJJ specialist. He has a blackbelt under Paulo Streckert and six of his professional wins have come via submission. As long as this fight stays on the feet, Green should pick apart Moises. Moises is likely to shoot for takedowns early and often as his only true chance here is to grind Green to the mat for a submission. However, Green has not been submitted since 2009. He is much quicker and more athletic than Moises so as long as he can stuff the takedown attempts, he should cruise to victory this evening. Bobby Green by Decision
  • GB: Bobby Green by Round One KO

Kevin Holland -800 (DK $8200, FD $17) vs Charlie Ontiveros +500 (DK $6700, FD $13)

  • Anthony: Next up is a middleweight bout between Kevin Holland and Charlie Ontiveros. The original opponent for Holland was a tough out in Makhmud Muradov but he will now face newcomer Ontiveros. This is going to be an incredibly easy fight for Holland who has done nothing but print money for me this year. Ontiveros is a career welterweight who has already been knocked out six times in seventeen fights. Meanwhile, Holland is one of the best young middleweights on the roster. He outsizes Ontiveros and will have no trouble picking him apart at range. Holland is a free square on both FanDuel and DraftKings as his price was set prior to the change of opponent. He will have extremely high ownership. With such a high likelihood of him winning inside of the distance I think you need to include him in every lineup you build. Kevin Holland by Round One KO
  • Nick: Ontiveros is taking this fight on very short notice. He’s filling in for Makhmud Muradov here and Holland will be far and away the toughest opponent he’s ever seen. Holland has already won three fights in 2020. It seems like he is on the fast track to being ranked at middleweight, and Ontiveros is significantly worse than any of his recent opponents. Holland has been leaning on his striking lately, but he’s also going to be the better grappler in this match-up as Ontiveros really has no talent on the mat. No matter where this fight goes, Holland is a level above Ontiveros. You can treat him like a free square on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Kevin Holland by Round One Submission
  • GB: Kevin Holland by Round One KO

Greg Hardy -340 (DK $8800, FD $20) vs Maurice Greene +260 (DK $7400, FD $10)

  • Anthony: The featured bout is a heavyweight fight between Maurice Green and Greg Hardy. Everyone’s favorite defensive end is back in the octagon for the second time this year after winning in May at UFC 249. In that fight he injured Yorgan De Castro by checking a leg kick and ended up cruising to a decision victory. Maurice Green came back to win his last fight by a choke on bottom position against Gian Villante. That win really did not raise Greene’s stock in my opinion. I feel like he is undersized and lacks the tools needed to survive this fight. Not to mention with Hardy training at American Top Team you also need to assume his cardio is improving with each and every fight. This could end up being a slower paced decision, but I find it more likely Hardy picks apart Greene with power strikes until he falls. Greene is more live than most underdogs on this card but Hardy will more than likely be able to stuff takedowns and win this on his feet. Greg Hardy by Round One KO
  • Nick: Greg Hardy is about as questionable of a character as there is in the UFC. He is a tough guy to cheer for, but there’s no denying his athleticism and speed as a heavyweight. Greene is a tough guy with a solid ground game for a guy his size, but he has a very low Fight IQ and his cardio always tends to hold him back. In most of his wins, he finds a way to get the fight to the mat. Five of his nine professional victories have come via submission. He throws decent volume on the feet, but his striking is loose and he often leaves himself open to counters. Hardy was mostly picked apart by Alexander Volkov in his last fight. However, he did show a solid chin, good footwork and landed some nice snap-counters. Volkov is one of the best strikers in the division, so even though he lost convincingly he has momentum coming into this match-up against Greene. I don’t doubt Hardy will continue to struggle against the top heavyweights in this division. However, Greene is not one of them. Hardy’s physical advantages should be enough to keep this fight on the feet, where he should be able to outclass Greene until he finds a knockout shot. He’s the sharper striker and his Fight IQ has improved each fight since entering the octagon. Greg Hardy by Round Two KO
  • GB: Greg Hardy by Round Two KO

Bryce Mitchell -140 (DK $8500, FD $17) vs Andre Fili +110 (DK $7700, FD $15)

  • Anthony: The co-main event is an exciting featherweight bout between Bryce Mitchell and Andre Fili. As you can tell by the odds this will be one of the closest and most compelling fights of the evening. Mitchell is a prospect that the UFC has loved to promote and one who fights with relentless pressure. He has a very grappling heavy attack and a deadly submission game. In his last fight against Charles Rosa he landed all three of his takedown attempts and accumulated nearly thirteen minutes of control time. Fili is a well-rounded fighter who has been a staple of this division for years, but he is clearly the inferior grappler in this matchup. I do not think that Mitchell will have too many problems keeping this fight on the mat. Fili is a very adept wrestler but is facing an opponent more technically skilled than any he has faced before. Not to mention that in the standup Mitchell should be able to mix up his striking well enough to dictate the fight. I agree that Fili is the better striker of the two, but Mitchell has a unique style and executes well enough to keep his opponents honest. I like Mitchell a lot at these odds even though Fili is a dangerous opponent. Bryce Mitchell by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: This is an excellent match-up on paper and a favorite to win Fight of the Night. Fili is a well-rounded fighter. He throws powerful strikes, he has solid wrestling and his athleticism allows him to stay competitive against a wide range of top-level opponents.  He’s an effective striker that uses his length well, but he’s relied on his grappling and wrestling  in most of his professional victories. In this match-up, he’d be wise to keep things on the feet as long as possible. He is a better striker than Mitchell, so he’s certainly a live dog here if this fight stays upright. If it doesn’t, Mitchell has the advantage. Bryce Mitchell is a blackbelt in BJJ with a seemingly endless arsenal of creative submissions at his disposal. He’s shown an outstanding ability to dominate on the ground and against a superior striker in Fili that’s where he’ll try to take this fight. Bryce Mitchell is one of these guys the UFC is buying in on. They’ve been using him in advertising and it definitely feels like they’re trying to showcase him in this co-main slot. Fili is a tough dude, but he has tapped out at the hands of far worse grapplers than Mitchell. There is no denying the fact that Fili has faced the tougher competition. However, Mitchell seems to get better every time we see him fight. It won’t come easy, but I see Mitchell finding a way to get this fight to the mat and controlling it once there. Fili is one of the more “live” underdogs on this card, but I think Mitchell eventually finds Fili’s back and ends this inside the distance. Bryce Mitchell by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Bryce Mitchell by Round Two Submission

Uriah Hall -235 (DK $8600, FD $20) vs Anderson Silva +185 (DK $7600, FD $18)

  • Anthony: The main event is a middleweight fight between Uriah Hall and one of the greatest fighters to ever do it, Anderson Silva. All signs are pointing to this being the final fight for Silva, at least inside the UFC octagon. He is a living legend and a true pioneer of the sport. He also gets a very winnable fight here against Uriah Hall on his way out. Silva is still incredibly sharp and boasts some of the best precision striking on the UFC roster. He has all of the talent needed to beat a guy like Hall but unfortunately, I do not think he is durable enough to do so. His legs have become a target and accumulation of damage in general is likely enough to do Silva in at this point of his career. Hall too is a very talented striker and can throw much harder and quicker than Silva. In the smaller octagon Silva lacks the space I think he needs to work. Hall is going to be the one leading the dance and I believe he will win this fight with his pressure. Silva is going to have to absorb a lot of strikes over the course of five rounds and I cannot trust him to do so. This is going to stay standing for as long as it lasts and hopefully these two can put on a show. It would feel really good to see Silva get the win in his retirement fight, but I find that tough to imagine. Uriah Hall by Round Three KO
  • Nick: Anderson Silva was once considered the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet. The now 45 year-old former champion has fallen a long way since then, and all signs seem to indicate this will be the last time he fights under the UFC banner. One of the greatest strikers in MMA history, Silva throws constant feints. He baits his opponents into tough positions where he uses his range surgically to pick them apart with all of his limbs. At his best he has vicious punches, elbows, and kicks – both in the clinch and in open space. He has underrated grappling as well as a decorated blackbelt in BJJ under another legend in Minotauro Noguiera. Silva still has some of the outstanding footwork that he was known for in his prime, but his speed has declined significantly. His strikes aren’t as powerful as they once were, and he doesn’t control the clinch the way he did for the better part of the last decade. Stylistically, Hall and Silva are similar on the feet. They’re both strikers who string together creative combos and find a lot of success using their length against shorter fighters. Silva will land some shots here, but Hall will outmatch him in both power and volume. Hall’s power advantage here will be significant. Five of his last six victories have come via knockout. Additionally, Hall has a strong leg-kicking game which has proved to be a weakness for Silva of late. A lot of guys that face Silva are overly respectful and never really put much damage on him. However, in listening to Hall’s interviews it genuinely feels like he is treating this fight just like any other. He seems to want a finish here in hopes of once again being a relevant contender in this division. In Silva’s prime, he would likely run through Hall. However, as sad as it is to say he is a shell of who he used to be. He’s still competitive, but I don’t see him knocking Hall out – and over the course of five rounds the stronger Hall likely proves to be too much for him. If Silva seemed more willing to utilize his jiu jitsu he might have a shot at pulling off a sneaky sub. I expect his fight to stay on the feet and a hungry Hall to get the best of the legend. I’ll have some exposure to Silva in DFS, as I wouldn’t be shocked if he had his hand raised one last time. His chances here feel slim though. Uriah Hall by Round Four KO
  • GB: Anderson Silva by Round Two KO

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice