UFC Vegas 14: Felder vs Dos Anjos – 11.14.2020 – Staff Predictions, Picks, and DFS Analysis (FREE)

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Hello Daily Play Action! Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 14: Felder vs Dos Anjos. This card was heavily impacted by late cancellations, but the UFC has managed to scrape together a really fun slate of fights nonetheless. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Anthony Marro, Nicholas Marro and GB. We also feature write-ups that will provide consideration for building lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

When building your lineups here are a few things to consider. Pricing differs for most fighters making some better value on one site over the other. Scoring is important as well. On FanDuel a first-round finish scores 5x the points as a decision, where on DraftKings it scores 3x as many. Grappling is also scored drastically different as FanDuel awards points for takedown defense and submission attempts. DraftKings neglects those two stats and instead values advances (such as to half guard, to mount…) and reversals. Lastly, you will only want to take two fighters from the same fight if you think it goes into the late rounds and expect both to reach value.

As coverage continues, we will keep our Daily Play Action records up to date. Be sure to check out our reasoning though as records will not reflect confidence, we will be picking all fights regardless of if we are betting on them. If you are in search of a good website to tail any of our picks, I highly recommend using Bovada for their user-friendly format and awesome deposit bonuses!

Nick: 204-104-5    Anthony: 192-116-5    GB: 182-126-5

Fight odds are as listed from Bovada and last updated 10:15 AM EST 11-14-2020

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:00pm EST

Don’Tale Mayes -240 (DK $9000, FD $20) vs Roque Martinez +190 (DK $7200, FD $10)

  • Anthony: We open the card with a low-level heavyweight bout between Don’Tale Mayes and Roque Martinez. Just two months ago we saw Martinez get demolished in his UFC debut against Alexander Romanov. While his striking is okay, he really does not that many weapons at his disposal in this fight. Mayes is at an eight-inch height and ten-inch reach advantage here. Even though Mayes is likely not going far in this division, he should have no problem hurting Martinez in this fight. He is able to put together combinations nicely and throws good leg kicks to slow down opponents. I am pretty confident that Mayes knocks out Martinez here, but heavyweight fights are volatile. I would not overexpose myself to either side of this one. Don’Tale Mayes by Round One KO
  • Nick: This is a lower level heavyweight match-up, but these guys are more athletic than they look. Mayes has decent speed with decent footwork for a heavyweight. Martinez has one of the softer frames in the UFC, but he sometimes throws surprisingly high kicks and accurate flying knees. While his athleticism is better than you’d expect just looking at him, there’s no denying the fact he was manhandled in his last fight against Alexander Romanov. He’s one of the shorter heavyweights in the UFC and he really hasn’t found much success against this level of competition. In a fight that’s highly likely to take place on the feet, Mayes’ huge reach advantage will likely be the difference here. Martinez has power, but it’s going to be extremely difficult for him to close distance enough to land it. I’m really not high on Mayes’ career trajectory, but this is a winnable match-up for him and I think he gets it done. I also like that Mayes trains out of a good camp at Jackson Wink. Don’Tale Mayes by Round One KO
  • GB: Don’Tale Mayes by Round One KO

Alex Morono -175 (DK $8900, FD $19) vs Rhys McKee +145 (DK $7300, FD $11)

  • Anthony: This should be a very fun fight at welterweight between Alex Morono and Rhys McKee. Morono is coming off a brutal knockout loss against Khaos Williams and now the veteran is being fed to the prospect. He has a clear path to victory in this fight taking down and controlling McKee, but what McKee lacks in wrestling he makes up for with his striking and jiu jitsu. I think that if McKee is able to stuff just a few takedowns in this fight he will be able to get to Morono. He is the taller fighter and has a six-inch reach advantage at his disposal. While McKee was unable to showcase his striking against Khamzat Chimaev in his debut, he really can hit hard and find his way to a finish. I think the odds are a bit too wide in this fight, so I am locking in the underdog McKee. He is a good option for GPP builds and likely scores well in a win. Rhys McKee by Round Two KO
  • Nick: Mckee was dominated by Khamzat Chimaev in his UFC debut. He took that fight on short notice, so it’s nice to see the UFC is giving him another chance here. As we saw in his last fight, McKee can’t really wrestle. However, he’s a rangy and effective striker that finds a lot of success on the feet against shorter opponents. While he hasn’t quite faced an outstanding level of competition, seven of his ten professional wins have come by way of knockout. While he struggles in the wrestling department, he’s decent once he hits the mat as a BJJ brown belt. This will be a solid test for McKee, who never really got a chance to show what he had against an absolute monster in Chimaev. Morono will definitely have the experience advantage here. However, he hasn’t really shown a high Fight IQ lately. He’d be wise to take McKee to the mat and control position as a blackbelt. McKee struggles against grapplers, so if Morono decides to shoot he should find be able to grind out a win. However, Morono has NEVER scored a takedown across ten fights in the UFC. He likes to stand and trade, and when he does so he’s going to have to deal with Mckee’s six-inch reach advantage. Morono’s chin is also a major question-mark here as he was knocked out cold his last time out against Khaos Williams. All signs seem to point to this fight taking place on the feet, so I’m siding with the reach and more technically sound striking of the underdog. Another tough one to feel confident in, but I just don’t think Morono tries to grapple. Rhys McKee by Round Two KO
  • GB: Rhys McKee by Round Two KO

Tony Gravely -145 (DK $8700, FD $18) vs Geraldo De Freitas +115 (DK $7500, FD $13)

  • Anthony: Next on the card is a bantamweight matchup between Tony Gravely and Gerado De Freitas that should produce a great fight. These guys are both well rounded but have clashing fighting styles. It is likely that we see wrestling heavy attack from Gravely who has a significant advantage there. He is the shorter fighter but built thicker than De Freitas, making it likely he is the stronger of the two. While it seems like a clear path to victory for Gravely, he needs to be careful with how dangerous De Freitas is off his back. If Gravely fights smart he can wrestle his way to a win, but I feel that is just as likely an outcome as Gravely winning on the feet. I even think Gravely has a good chance of winning by knockout, which would be good given his suspect gas tank. It’s tough to be very confident in either side here but I definitely like the favorite. Tony Gravely by Decision
  • Nick: There are a lot of close fights on this card and this is certainly one of them. Gravely is a high-pressure wrestler with a strong base and impressive cardio. De Freitas has shown improved striking ability of late, but he is primarily an offensive grappler with a Black Belt in jiu jitsu. Both guys are capable strikers, but their grappling abilities have led to the majority of their respective wins. De Freitas’ striking seems to improve every time he fights. He’ll have a solid reach advantage in this one, and while Gravely may pack more power – he’s likely to land more volume. Gravely has shown a questionable gas tank at times. I do think he’ll have a strength advantage here, but if he can’t finish De Freitas via ground-and-pound he’s likely to end up on the bad end of a scramble or two over the course of fifteen minutes. Admittedly, this is one of my least confident picks on the card. I think Gravely controls the fight until De Freitas eventually catches him in something. Geraldo De Freitas by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Tony Gravely by Round Three KO

Kanako Murata -200 (DK $8600, FD $18) vs Randa Markos +160 (DK $7600, FD $14)

  • Anthony: The first women’s strawweight bout of the card is between Randa Markos and Kanako Murata. We recently saw Markos lose her second fight of the year when she faced Mackenzie Dern in September. She has the wrestling and grappling to win decisions on occasion, but Markos is really a one-dimensional fighter. Murata will likely be the more active of the two here and I anticipate she pressures Markos for this entire fight. Off of her back foot it will be difficult for Markos to use her wrestling effectively. Not to mention that almost any fighter in the division would be able to out strike Markos when things stay standing. She also is taking this bout as a short notice replacement. Murata is the pick, but both are viable DFS plays as they could win a decision with very high takedown volume. Kanako Murata by Decision
  • Nick: Murata has a solid resume for a UFC debutant. She captured the Invicta Strawweight title in her last match-up against Emily Ducote. Murata is an Olympic level wrestler who is capable enough to hang on her feet until she can take the fight to the mat. In terms of traditional wrestling, she should be able to hang with anyone in the division. Markos will definitely be the better striker here, but she really doesn’t throw much volume and she’s never knocked anyone out before. I expect her to find success as long as she keeps this fight on the feet, but she only has a 58 percent takedown defense. While Markos will definitely have the experience edge in this one, Murata poses a lot of problems for her stylistically. This is another fight in which my confidence level picking is low, but I’m siding with the favorite. Kanako Murata by Decision
  • GB: Kanako Murata by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Eryk Anders vs Antonio Arroyo 

*Update: This fight has been cancelled due to an Eryk Anders health issue

Louis Smolka vs Jose Quinonez

*Update: This fight has been cancelled due to a Louis Smolka health issue

Kay Hansen -210 (DK $9200, FD $21) vs Cory McKenna +170 (DK $7000, FD $9)

  • Anthony: Next is another women’s strawweight bout between Kay Hansen and Cory McKenna. The line has gotten very wide on this fight, but it certainly feels justified. Hansen is the far more polished prospect of these two and I think she outclasses McKenna just about everywhere in this fight. She has great wrestling and is the more likely of the two to find a finish. McKenna did not look all that impressive in her most recent win against Vanessa Demopoulos, but Hansen shined in her June UFC debut against Jinh Yu Frey. Unless McKenna is stronger than I anticipate and she gets on top of Hansen early, this fight should be relatively one sided. I think Hansen eventually does enough on the ground to submit McKenna here. Kay Hansen by Round Two Submission
  • Nick: We have a match-up between two 21-year old prospects here at strawweight. Both girls have been fighting just over two years professionally, and there’s a good chance this is the first of multiple face-offs between them. Hansen is primarily a grappler. She has a very strong wrestling base and does a good job finding submissions against inferior grapplers. She’s only a purple belt in BJJ, but she studies under Eddie Bravo so her jiu jitsu is already quite advanced. Her striking is still a work in progress, but it’s been improving every single time we’ve see her fight. McKenna is coming off a solid Dana White’s Contender Series win against Vanessa Demopoulos. She’s from a family of athletes and is already well-rounded, but she’s still developing all parts of her game. The line definitely feels too wide on this one, but I’m siding with the favorite here. Hansen’s BJJ is further along. I wouldn’t want much money on either side of this fight regardless. Kay Hansen by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Cory McKenna by Decision

Brendan Allen -130 (DK $7900, FD $17) vs Sean Strickland +100 (DK $8300, FD $15)

  • Anthony: Perhaps the bout I am most excited for this card is a 195-pound catchweight between Sean Strickland and Brendan Allen. This bout was put together at the start of the week after Ian Heinisch pulled out of his scheduled fight with Allen last Saturday. Stepping in for Heinisch is Strickland, who we saw pick apart Jack Marshman in his return from injury two weeks ago. Strickland looked awesome in that fight, putting on a clinic primarily striking from the outside. He definitely has the advantage on the feet, but Allen has knockout wins of his own and it seems his striking has improved with each fight. The most likely outcome that I see here though is Allen dragging Strickland onto the mat. The takedown defense of Strickland has held up well over his career but he has never had to defend a UFC middleweight’s takedown, especially not one the size of Allen. Once he gets this fight to the mat, I think that Allen will push for a finish. He has excellent submission and great ground and pound to soften up his opponents. I was confident picking Allen over Heinisch, and while Strickland is good I believe him to be a step down in competition. Brendan Allen by Round One Submission
  • Nick: Allen was supposed to fight last week but Ian Heinisch had to pull out due. Strickland is the better striker here, but Allen is likely stronger and has more advanced grappling ability. Strickland in a BJJ brown belt, but Allen is likely to be the bigger and stronger of the two, especially considering this fight is taking place at a 195 pound catchweight. Allen has the better takedown entries. He has the stronger base and he should be able to take this fight to the mat once he closes distance on Strickland. The majority of Strickland’s career he has fought at 170 pounds. While Strickland is the more accomplished fighter, Allen should be able to match him no matter where this one goes. Allen isn’t as good of a striker as Strickland, but he does throw enough volume to keep things close on the feet. This is one of the tougher fights to call on the card and it has a good chance of being awarded Fight of the Night. I’m siding with the strength and grappling of Allen here to ultimately get things done. I think the smaller cage will benefit him in this spot as well. Note the price discrepancy in terms of DFS, as your exposure should vary depending on which site you are playing these guys. Brendan Allen by Round Two Submission
  • GB: Brendan Allen by Round Two Submission

Miranda Granger -165 (DK $8200, FD $16) vs Ashley Yoder +135 (DK $8000, FD $16)

  • Anthony: Back to women’s strawweight one last time where Miranda Granger will face Ashley Yoder. I expect this to primarily be a kickboxing bout since both ladies like to strike. As the nickname implies, Granger is the more dangerous of the two on the feet. She has good power for this division and manages range extremely well. Granger has not looked great thus far in the UFC, but neither has the longer tenured Yoder. This is absolutely a fade spot for me when it comes to building DFS lineups. We should see Granger land higher volume and more meaningful strikes though, so I am confident picking her to win this fight. Even if Yoder gets her to the ground, I doubt we see Granger lose the fight there. Miranda Granger by Decision
  • Nick: This is a decent match-up between two fairly tall strawweights. Yoder fought recently against Livinha Souza. She lost that one, but Souza is primarily a grappler and didn’t match-up well with Yoder stylistically. She’s likely going to be a bit stronger than Granger will here so she’d be wise to take this fight to the mat both early and often. Granger might have a slight advantage when this fight stays standing, but I see the grappling advantage as well as the experience for Yoder winning out. My confidence is fairly low on this one, but I’m siding with the underdog. I just haven’t seen enough from Granger yet to want to pay this price on her. Record aside, Yoder has faced and found success against considerably tougher competition. Ashley Yoder by Decision
  • GB: Ashley Yoder by Round Two Submission

Abdul Razak Alhassan -230 (DK $9100, FD $22) vs Khaos Williams +180 (DK $7100, FD $8)

  • Anthony: The co-main event is a banger at welterweight between Khaos Williams and Abdul Razak Alhassan. Unfortunately, for the second consecutive fight Razak Alhassan was overweight on the scale. He was much closer to making weight in this bout but after seeing him struggle against Mounir Lazzez in July, it is tough to trust his gas tank here. It is unlikely cardio will play a major factor though as most Razak Alhassan fights are over shortly after they begin. All ten of his wins are by first round knockout. Williams boasts an above average finish rate as well making it extremely likely this fight ends early. This is an easy pick as Razak Alhassan should really outclass Williams wherever this fight takes place. At range he has devastating kicks, in the pocket he has slick boxing and if things get dicey Razak Alhassan always has his judo to rely on. Hopefully his previous performance was just shaking the rust off after two years away. Abdul Razak Alhassan by Round One KO
  • Nick: Abdul Razak Alhassan has outstanding power, but his cardio is always a major concern. He always seems to fade late in fights, usually winning by early knockout or losing by decision. Khaos Williams fights a similar style as Alhassan, but he’s seemingly less refined. His gas tank is better than Alhassan’s, but he doesn’t do a good job keeping his head off of the centerline. His defensive boxing leaves a lot to be desired and while he does have power, he usually has to eat a few shots in order to find a place for it. Alhassan said he had a really good camp leading into this one. It feels like he’s in the co-main slot here as the UFC is hoping to boost his stock. This is definitely a fight to target for DFS purposes as it’s likely to end inside the distance. Williams has a punchers chance at a knockout here, but I’m siding with the more experienced and better technical striker. Abdul Razak Alhassan by Round One KO
  • GB: Abdul Razak Alhassan by Round Two KO

Rafael dos Anjos -200 (DK $8800, FD $21) vs Paul Felder +160 (DK $7400, FD $18)

  • Anthony: The main event of the evening is a good one at lightweight as Paul Felder will fight the former champion Rafael dos Anjos. The original opponent for RDA was Islam Makhachev but now in steps Paul Felder as a short notice replacement. It was extremely surprising to see Felder jump at this opportunity, but he made weight successfully and sounds ready to put on a show. If they had both been training a full camp for this fight it would be a lot more difficult to call but given the circumstances I lean to the side of RDA. Felder is extremely durable and his only loss by stoppage was caused by a cut. However, it is well documented that an unexpected weight cut usually saps a fighter’s cardio. I anticipate that Felder hangs around for start of this fight but begins to fade as the rounds progress. RDA should be able to bang with Felder on the feet and I think we see a bunch of awesome exchanges early in this one. As the fight progresses though RDA will likely be able to do damage to Felder and work him to the ground as he pleases. In grappling exchanges RDA has a significant advantage. After several years of facing the best welterweights in the world, I am excited to see what he can do in a return to this division. Props to Felder for taking this fight on short notice but I think RDA gets the job done here. Rafael dos Anjos by Round Three Submission
  • Nick: Paul Felder is stepping into this main event on just five days’ notice. Not only is he stepping in on short notice, but he took the fight at 155 pounds and agreed to keep this a five round bout. Dos Anjos is coming off a full camp in which he was training to take on Islam Makhachev. I have no doubt that he’s going to be the better prepared fighter here, even as he just recently started fighting back at lightweight again. Dos Anjos is a well-rounded fighter. He’s solid on the feet, but he can also lean on his BJJ and does an excellent job controlling position against inferior grapplers. In many ways, this is a striker versus grappler match-up, but dos Anjos is capable enough to engage with Felder on the feet plenty. The result of this fight likely comes down to cardio. Felder had been training for a triathlon, but he’s unlikely to have had put the true grueling rounds in which he’d need to hang with RDA here. He’s going to have a chance as long as this stays on the feet, but I think dos Anjos will keep it on the mat for however long he needs to win on the scorecards. RDA has a great chance at finding a late submission here as Felder fades, but it wouldn’t shock me if this went to decision. Either way, I’m siding with the favorite on a full camp. Rafael Dos Anjos by Round Four Submission
  • GB: Paul Felder by Round Three KO

*Anthony, Nick and GB play on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and although they express their opinions, they may also implement other plays and strategies without notice